On a cold day at the end of February, US and Russian officials met at the residence of the American consul general in Istanbul. The day after, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced it had appointed a new ambassador to the US, Alexander Darchiev, who led his country's delegation at the talks in the Turkish city.
Such meetings would have been unthinkable just months ago, given the long-standing enmity between the US and Russia. But after the stark shift in Washington’s stance towards Moscow since the Cold War under the administration of President Donald Trump, diplomats from the two sides are not only meeting; they are actively engaged in talks to end the three-year war in Ukraine.
“There has been a drastic change since the new US administration came in,” a Russian diplomat told The National. “It is not just about Ukraine; it is about normalising diplomatic relations overall.”
The meeting in Turkey played a key part in the process of restoring diplomatic relations between the US and Russia. The ties had been marred by what the Russian official called the “seizure” of Russian-owned real estate in the US dating back to the presidency of Barack Obama, along with the ejection of Russian diplomats and reciprocal measures taken by Moscow.
“There was a normal working atmosphere in the Istanbul meeting,” said the official, who was briefed on the talks. “Concrete measures included the appointment of the new Russian ambassador to the US, and we are waiting for the US to propose a new ambassador to Moscow.”
Other points of discussion included the “normalisation” of work visas and travel permissions for US and Russian citizens, he added.
The US delegation, led by Sonata Coulter, deputy assistant secretary of state for Russia and Central Europe, raised “concerns” regarding access to banking and contracted services, as well as the need for sustainable staffing levels at its Moscow embassy, a US State Department readout said.
Hosting the meeting was the latest in a series of moves by Turkey that embellish its credentials as a middle power able to help solve global conflicts. At the same time, Ankara is pursuing its own interests in closer ties with Europe and managing both growing trade and points of disagreement with Russia, current and former diplomats and analysts told The National.
Earlier this week, after a two and a half hour phone call between Mr Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow agreed to pause attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure but declined to endorse a full 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly offered to host talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine to discuss the details of a lasting peace.
“If the latest developments lead Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, we are ready to facilitate discussions,” Mr Erdogan said at a press conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Ankara earlier this month.
Turkey is making such offers “firstly, because it can”, Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of Edam, a think tank in Istanbul, told The National. “There are very few countries that can. Secondly, it's also a matter of diplomatic prestige for Turkey to be able to do so.”
Ankara also has its own reasons to want the war to end. The Black Sea is all that divides its northern coastline from southern Russia and Ukraine. Turks often complain about the flow of Russians and Ukrainians into the country since the start of the war, which has exacerbated already burgeoning price rises. Instability in Turkey's northern neighbours is not in its interests.
In a recent interview with Al Jazeera Arabic, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan named the Russia-Ukraine war as one of the most pressing issues facing his country. It is second only to the national security threats it sees in the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militant group based in northern Iraq and Syria, he said.
“The war between Ukraine and Russia has affected the economy, logistics lines, trade, energy flow, everything,” Mr Fidan said. “In other words, this war needs to stop and our region needs to slowly return to normal in the north as soon as possible.”
Walking a middle ground
Throughout the war in Ukraine, Turkey has played a careful balancing act between the warring parties. It has maintained diplomatic relations with Kyiv and Moscow and previously helped broker a UN-backed agreement on the passage of grain shipments through the Black Sea. Russia subsequently refused to renew the agreement, although the Russian diplomat said its resumption could be up for discussion at further talks between Russia and the US in Riyadh this week. Along with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Turkey has also mediated prisoner exchanges, and is looking after about 1,300 Ukrainian orphans whose parents have gone missing during the war.
Militarily, Turkey has boosted Ukraine’s capabilities. Early in the war, drones made by Turkish company Baykar became so important for Kyiv on the battlefield that soldiers there released a song praising them. The company is currently building a factory for drone production in Ukraine, and the country's navy has two Turkish-built ships.
Meanwhile, Turkey is reliant on Russian gas through two pipelines to power homes and industry, accounting for about 40 per cent of all natural gas imports, according to Turkish energy market regulator data and the Russian diplomat. Russian state-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom is currently building a power plant in Akkuyu on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, cementing Moscow’s role in energy supply.
“Work is actively continuing on this project, and the first reactor can be started soon. There is no certain date; there will be a test in the near future,” said the Russian diplomat. The project had been delayed because of sanctions preventing some subcontractors from working on the project, he added.
Overall, Russia is one of Turkey’s largest trade partners: the two countries had a trade volume of $52.6 billion last year, according to The National’s calculations based on Turkish government data, and a Turkish Trade Ministry source. The vast majority of the trade is Russian exports to Turkey, mostly of energy. That highlights both Turkey’s need for Russian energy supplies, but also Moscow’s reliance on Ankara as a customer as other European partners have melted away. Russian citizens are also among the top foreign buyers of property in Turkey. Ankara has not implemented the sanctions imposed by western nations on Russia, increasing its reliance on Turkey as one of the few places its citizens can do business and move money.
Facilitator, not mediator
But there are limits to Ankara’s role in the negotiations over Ukraine, diplomats and observers say.
According to three current and former diplomats and analysts interviewed by The National, Turkey is not an active mediator between Russia, Ukraine and the US, or influencing the course of their talks to focus on specific issues, such as prisoner releases and whether Russia maintains control of territory it has seized in eastern Ukraine. Its role is limited to mediating the potentially drawn-out peace negotiations, through moves such as hosting talks, rather than actively steering their course, the analysts and diplomats said.
“I don't think that there's really an expectation for Turkey to be a mediator,” Mr Ulgen said, although he added that that could change if both Russia and Ukraine asked for Turkey to intervene more actively.
Others point out that there is a limited role in negotiating over the conflict for any outside party besides the US.
“Turkey cannot play a definitive role because Moscow is seeing the US as the sole interlocutor, and vice versa, so we as European and Nato allies are out in the cold,” Mehmet Fatih Ceylan, a former Turkish ambassador to Nato, told The National.
Turkey’s provision of military equipment to Ukraine, as well as continued economic co-operation with Kyiv, has angered Russia, curbing Ankara’s ability to influence the course of Kyiv-Moscow negotiations.
“The concern is the building of a drone factory, and production of military equipment – we speak about this out loud in meetings,” the Russian diplomat said. “We don’t think Turkey is going to be more than a facilitator in this, for these reasons discussed, but that does not rule out contacts and meetings on Turkey’s territory.”
Ukrainian officials either declined to comment or did not respond to interview requests from The National.
Turkey has crept towards a more pro-Ukraine, pro-Europe stance, partly because of the tough domestic economic environment and the desire to improve business opportunities with western nations, some analysts believe.
“We can see this in Turkey's activities in Nato, arms deliveries to Ukraine, and politically, we can see this with the frequent visits of [Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and the constant statements in favour of Ukraine,” Aydin Sezer, an Ankara-based analyst on Russia, told The National. During Mr Zelenskyy’s third trip to Turkey in as many years last month, Mr Erdogan described Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty as, “very, very important” to Turkey. That indicated how Ankara differs from Moscow’s position, which is to retain territory in eastern Ukraine that it has captured over the course of the conflict.
Moscow also rejects Turkish criticism that Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority, are discriminated against. Human Rights Watch has reported that the community is persecuted for its opposition to Russia's occupation of the Crimean peninsula.
“Turkey says they are discriminated against, we do not agree with that,” the Russian official said.
Reconstruction contracts
Turkey is also considering opportunities in the reconstruction of Ukraine, even before the fighting ends.
Building contractors from the country have long worked in post-conflict nations, including Iraq and Libya. Over the course of the war in Ukraine, Turkish firms have carried out 100 projects worth $1.2 billion dollars, including highways, bridges, energy and housing construction.
Trade Minister Omer Bolat this month chaired the first meeting of the Turkey-Ukraine Reconstruction Task Force in Kyiv, together with Oleksiy Kuleba, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Reconstruction, Economy and Agriculture. Mr Bolat was accompanied by representatives of the Turkish Contractors' Association, an industry body, and 25 companies. According to a background note on the trip provided to journalists by the Turkish Trade Ministry, the meetings in Kyiv involved discussion of projects planned for the reconstruction of Ukraine's infrastructure damaged by the war and, “the participation of the Turkish contracting sector in these projects”.
Closer EU-Turkey ties
Just as important for Turkey as a role in rebuilding Ukraine and mediating peace talks is the opportunity for closer integration with Europe, as a new political and defence paradigm unfolds on the continent.
The US’s recent swing towards Moscow has opened a window of opportunity for Turkey, as Europe looks to shore up its own defence architecture without guarantees of support from Washington.
former Turkish diplomat
“As a Nato member, and EU candidate country, Turkey is an inseparable part of the European security architecture with its developing defence industry, important roles it has undertaken in resolving regional crises, and strong army,” a Turkish defence ministry official said earlier this month.
In recent weeks, Mr Erdogan has repeatedly brought up the issue of Turkey’s long-stalled EU membership, framing his nation as an essential part of the bloc’s security.
“If the European Union wants to prevent or even reverse its loss of power and influence, it can only achieve this through Turkey's full membership,” Mr Erdogan told the media conference alongside Mr Tusk.
That is still unlikely, because of the bloc’s demands for reform and concerns over human rights in the country. But even without it, Turkey could play a key role in future defence and strategic alliances alongside other non-EU countries.
“Now there is this opening to contemplating European security with the involvement of non-EU countries – UK, Turkey and Norway, and that is very much due to the instability brought about by the Trump factor,” Mr Ulgen said. “Now, in terms of how that is going to be articulated, and how it's going to be implemented, we're still at an early stage, essentially, because there's still uncertainty about what that US disinterest and disinvolvement might look like.”
In recent years Turkey has rapidly developed its defence manufacturing in drone technology, aerial and naval military equipment, and in the “mass production of the nuts and bolts of warfare”, Mr Ulgen said. Turkey cannot be the sole provider of such defences for Europe, he said, but it “definitely has the capability to be part of the solution”.
One sticking point to deeper Turkish involvement in the EU’s security architecture is the lack of an official security pact between Ankara and Brussels – something that is unlikely to come about in the near future because of disagreements over the status of Cyprus. Turkey is the only country in the world that recognises an independent republic in the island’s north, which divided from the rest of Cyprus following a Turkish invasion in 1974.
On Wednesday the European Commission released a white paper on the “ReArm Europe Plan”, which will enable spending of more than €800 billion ($867 billion) but will be open to only non-EU member states that have signed security and defence partnerships with the bloc.
One workaround could be joint ventures between Turkish defence companies and European partners. “There will have to be ad hoc, practical solutions,” Mr Ceylan said. “Turkey can have added value to close the gap in European defences.”
A possible future ground force in Ukraine from willing European nations could also include Turkey, which has the second largest army in Nato – although Russia fiercely opposes the idea of such a troop presence.
“I’m sure that there have been talks between the EU and Turkey about a Turkish role in this force, but the crux of the matter is the terms of a ceasefire,” Mr Ceylan added. “At this point, it’s premature to commit troops to unknown territory, when talks are continuing.”
