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Donald Trump's “transactional” nature, close ties to Saudi Arabia and keenness to end the war in Gaza provide an opportunity for Palestinians to engage with the incoming US administration after a year in which the Palestinian Authority has been seen as “missing in action”, experts have told The National.
In his first term as president, Donald Trump took several unilateral steps detrimental to the Palestinian cause including closing the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) office in Washington, moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognising Israel's sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights.
However, in his second term, Mr Trump will be operating in a radically different political environment in the region – one where Arab states and Iran have formed closer ties, and where support for Palestine is significantly stronger than it was four years ago, said Ghaith Al Omari, a former foreign policy adviser in the Palestinian Authority.
“There’s a regional desire to resolve the conflict and I think the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian people in general are very frustrated with the Biden administration’s support for Israel,” Mr Al Omari, now a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said.
There is hope that the Trump administration will be different, he said. He pointed to recent comments by vice president-elect J D Vance on ending the war in Gaza as soon as possible. “Trump doesn’t want to start his term dealing with a war in Gaza,” Mr Al Omari said.
Mr Vance also recently said the US was not interested in a war with Tehran, as Israel continues to frame its attacks on Lebanon, Syria and Yemen as a fight against Iran.
Dalal Iriqat, associate professor at the Arab American University in the occupied West Bank, said Palestinians' approach to the new administration needs to be more “pragmatic”.
“We should learn from our past experiences, when the Palestine Liberation Organisation decided to boycott the US administration, hoping that justice and international law would prevail,” she said.
“On the ground, years later, nothing was reversed and more settler colonialism is being practised on Palestinian land” with far-right Israeli ministers such as Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir assuming that Mr Trump's return is a “carte blanche” for annexation, Ms Iriqat said.
However, Mr Trump's former Middle East envoy Jason Greenblatt has said Israel should not assume that the president-elect will be in favour of annexation of the West Bank, thereby “dampening the excitement of Israel's far-right”, Mr Al Omari said.
Saudi Arabia's staunch pro-Palestine stance, just over a year after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said the kingdom was closer to normalising ties with Israel, will also play a role in Mr Trump's position on the Palestinian issue, both experts agreed.
“The Saudis have been very clear there will be no normalisation with Israel without concrete, credible steps towards a two-state solution and a commitment to it,” Mr Al Omari said. “Trump is transactional and wants to get a deal and if he believes it’s a firm Saudi position, he’ll pressure the Israelis to accept it.”
Palestinian government
It is worth noting, Mr Al Omari said, that the Palestinian Authority has been largely seen as “missing in action” over the last year of war – despite reforms made towards a technocratic government earlier this year.
“The Palestinian Authority has never been weaker than it is now – even among the Palestinian public, which polls show believe it is unpopular and believe that it has become a liability rather than an asset, especially President Mahmoud Abbas,” Mr Al Omari said.
But a political reshuffle of the Palestinian Authority could present a viable option for the “day after” in Gaza, he said, and a real partner for Arab states to work with on rebuilding Gaza and governance.
Mr Al Omari said he believes Mr Trump will want a clear plan on who would take over Gaza administratively, something he considers the current Palestinian Authority incapable of doing in its current form. However, hope remains for a revamped Palestinian leadership, he said, as expressed by UAE officials who signalled the country's willingness to be part of post-war efforts in Gaza at the invitation of “a reformed Palestinian Authority”.
Ms Iriqat said Palestinians must be included in determining their own future, in order to achieve a comprehensive solution for peace in the region. “There is an opportunity if we all engage on a pragmatic level, inspired by a win-win scenario where all parties are involved and share their interests, and Palestinians are treated as a primary party to this conflict's resolution.”
