Live updates: Follow the latest on Israel-Gaza
US President-elect Donald Trump has said he wants to end the Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah war but there is often a gap between political rhetoric and reality. Should he choose to act on his word, the main question is how?
He has expressed strong support for Israel's actions against Hamas in Gaza but said in March the war needed to end quickly. With the conflict since expanding to another front in Lebanon, against Hezbollah, Mr Trump could play a part in speeding up the process, probably at the expense of the Palestinian people, experts say.
Mr Trump's popularity with the Israeli public has given him significant leverage over their leader Benjamin Netanyahu, especially among the Prime Minister's right-wing support base, said Helit Barel, a former director at the Israeli National Security Council. That could place Mr Netanyahu under more pressure to follow the Trump administration's demands over the war.
“Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu,” she told The National. “I think he's absolutely able to come in with much more leverage vis-a-vis Netanyahu, because there are a lot of things you can't take for granted with Donald Trump.”
The devastating conflict was sparked by Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in Gaza. Since then, about 43,400 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and another 3,000 people in Lebanon, where the fighting escalated when Israel started a ground campaign last month. World leaders are increasingly calling for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, and a hostage release deal, on which the warring parties have so far failed to agree.
Some analysts say Mr Trump could place the burden of ending the war on Israel, through threats of lowering support and military aid to force Mr Netanyahu’s hand into reaching a ceasefire deal.
Any collision with Donald Trump is detrimental to Netanyahu
Helit Barel,
former Israeli National Security Council director
Others see Mr Trump placing the burden on Iran and proxy groups including Hamas and Hezbollah, by allowing Mr Netanyahu to continue striking them, increasing military pressure and essentially forcing them into de-escalation.
“What Israelis expect is that Trump will attempt to bring about a ceasefire by letting Israel execute its war plans without as many restrictions as the Biden administration, to fight the war without its hands being tied,” said Shmuel Rosner, senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute in Jerusalem.
Whichever scenario materialises, all countries in the region are aware of less predictability under Trump. “Countries in this region take him more seriously than Biden,” Mr Rosner added. “They are more aware of his ability to be unpredictable and aggressive, and that's something they all must consider – and this includes Israel, by the way, it's not just the Iranians.”
Analysts point out there are still more than two months until Mr Trump takes office, a period current President Joe Biden could use to pressure the warring sides to end the conflict now that considerations around voter sentiment are irrelevant.
“I do wonder whether a Trump presidency will end up being relevant to this, or will he come into a fait accompli?” said Ms Barel. “We still have two months of Biden, who is now traditionally considered a lame duck, but on the other hand, he has also now released himself from any burden of election calculations or considerations.”
Some observers believe a deal in Lebanon is due within weeks. A Hamas-Israel agreement for Gaza is more complicated, because it involves issues of governing the enclave once the fighting ends, and the specific terms of an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinians in Israeli prisons.
The lame-duck period could also have consequences for the direct Iran-Israel conflict. Israel launched strikes on ballistic missile manufacturing sites and air defences in Iran last month, in response to a previous attack on its territory. More Iranian retaliation on Israel is expected.
Mr Trump’s win and the advent of his more unpredictable behaviour “might signal to the Iranians that it's time for them to wrap up the escalation of hostilities with Israel and go back to more civil behaviour”, Mr Rosner said. “That's one possibility. It could also be a hint to all parties that they have to escalate now because they have only a narrow window of time before Trump gets into office.”
Palestinians sidelined
Mr Trump’s close alliance with Israel during his last presidency augurs poorly for Palestinians, who fear that the president-elect will give Mr Netanyahu’s government the go-ahead to continue cracking down on freedom, while expanding settlements in the occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law.
“Trump's insistence on being Israel's top ally suggests an even more aggressive sidelining of legitimate Palestinian aspirations,” Dimitri Diliani, spokesman for the reformist wing in Fatah, which controls the Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority government body, told The National.
The closure of the Palestinian diplomatic mission in the US during the previous Trump administration does not give Palestinians much hope for their representation when he resumes office in January.
“Trump tends towards Israel’s interests,” said Ammar Jaber, a Palestinian political analyst. “There is the issue of the closure of the Palestinian mission in the US, which was a blow to peace and Palestinian recognition.”
Citizenship-by-investment programmes
United Kingdom
The UK offers three programmes for residency. The UK Overseas Business Representative Visa lets you open an overseas branch office of your existing company in the country at no extra investment. For the UK Tier 1 Innovator Visa, you are required to invest £50,000 (Dh238,000) into a business. You can also get a UK Tier 1 Investor Visa if you invest £2 million, £5m or £10m (the higher the investment, the sooner you obtain your permanent residency).
All UK residency visas get approved in 90 to 120 days and are valid for 3 years. After 3 years, the applicant can apply for extension of another 2 years. Once they have lived in the UK for a minimum of 6 months every year, they are eligible to apply for permanent residency (called Indefinite Leave to Remain). After one year of ILR, the applicant can apply for UK passport.
The Caribbean
Depending on the country, the investment amount starts from $100,000 (Dh367,250) and can go up to $400,000 in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take between four to five months to receive a passport.
Portugal
The investment amount ranges from €350,000 to €500,000 (Dh1.5m to Dh2.16m) in real estate. From the date of purchase, it will take a maximum of six months to receive a Golden Visa. Applicants can apply for permanent residency after five years and Portuguese citizenship after six years.
“Among European countries with residency programmes, Portugal has been the most popular because it offers the most cost-effective programme to eventually acquire citizenship of the European Union without ever residing in Portugal,” states Veronica Cotdemiey of Citizenship Invest.
Greece
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Greece is €250,000, making it the cheapest real estate residency visa scheme in Europe. You can apply for residency in four months and citizenship after seven years.
Spain
The real estate investment threshold to acquire residency for Spain is €500,000. You can apply for permanent residency after five years and citizenship after 10 years. It is not necessary to live in Spain to retain and renew the residency visa permit.
Cyprus
Cyprus offers the quickest route to citizenship of a European country in only six months. An investment of €2m in real estate is required, making it the highest priced programme in Europe.
Malta
The Malta citizenship by investment programme is lengthy and investors are required to contribute sums as donations to the Maltese government. The applicant must either contribute at least €650,000 to the National Development & Social Fund. Spouses and children are required to contribute €25,000; unmarried children between 18 and 25 and dependent parents must contribute €50,000 each.
The second step is to make an investment in property of at least €350,000 or enter a property rental contract for at least €16,000 per annum for five years. The third step is to invest at least €150,000 in bonds or shares approved by the Maltese government to be kept for at least five years.
Candidates must commit to a minimum physical presence in Malta before citizenship is granted. While you get residency in two months, you can apply for citizenship after a year.
Egypt
A one-year residency permit can be bought if you purchase property in Egypt worth $100,000. A three-year residency is available for those who invest $200,000 in property, and five years for those who purchase property worth $400,000.
Source: Citizenship Invest and Aqua Properties
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Overview
What: The Arab Women’s Sports Tournament is a biennial multisport event exclusively for Arab women athletes.
When: From Sunday, February 2, to Wednesday, February 12.
Where: At 13 different centres across Sharjah.
Disciplines: Athletics, archery, basketball, fencing, Karate, table tennis, shooting (rifle and pistol), show jumping and volleyball.
Participating countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Qatar and UAE.
Some of Darwish's last words
"They see their tomorrows slipping out of their reach. And though it seems to them that everything outside this reality is heaven, yet they do not want to go to that heaven. They stay, because they are afflicted with hope." - Mahmoud Darwish, to attendees of the Palestine Festival of Literature, 2008
His life in brief: Born in a village near Galilee, he lived in exile for most of his life and started writing poetry after high school. He was arrested several times by Israel for what were deemed to be inciteful poems. Most of his work focused on the love and yearning for his homeland, and he was regarded the Palestinian poet of resistance. Over the course of his life, he published more than 30 poetry collections and books of prose, with his work translated into more than 20 languages. Many of his poems were set to music by Arab composers, most significantly Marcel Khalife. Darwish died on August 9, 2008 after undergoing heart surgery in the United States. He was later buried in Ramallah where a shrine was erected in his honour.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
What vitamins do we know are beneficial for living in the UAE
Vitamin D: Highly relevant in the UAE due to limited sun exposure; supports bone health, immunity and mood.
Vitamin B12: Important for nerve health and energy production, especially for vegetarians, vegans and individuals with absorption issues.
Iron: Useful only when deficiency or anaemia is confirmed; helps reduce fatigue and support immunity.
Omega-3 (EPA/DHA): Supports heart health and reduces inflammation, especially for those who consume little fish.
Our legal consultants
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Essentials
The flights
Return flights from Dubai to Windhoek, with a combination of Emirates and Air Namibia, cost from US$790 (Dh2,902) via Johannesburg.
The trip
A 10-day self-drive in Namibia staying at a combination of the safari camps mentioned – Okonjima AfriCat, Little Kulala, Desert Rhino/Damaraland, Ongava – costs from $7,000 (Dh25,711) per person, including car hire (Toyota 4x4 or similar), but excluding international flights, with The Luxury Safari Company.
When to go
The cooler winter months, from June to September, are best, especially for game viewing.
The Written World: How Literature Shaped History
Martin Puchner
Granta
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
GIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
