Egypt's second shipment of military aid to Somalia on Monday as part of a military accord has become another point of contention in the long-standing dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.
Ethiopia's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday expressed concern over the consignment of arms sent to Somalia, warning the move could further destabilise the fragile security situation in the Horn of Africa region.
The weapons supply "by external forces would further exacerbate the fragile security and would end up in the hands of terrorists in Somalia", Ethiopia's Foreign Minister Taye Atske Selassie was quoted by Ethiopia News Agency as saying. But Rakha Ahmed Hassan, formerly Egypt's assistant foreign minister, said the move should not be perceived as aggressive aimed at escalation with Ethiopia.
"There is this pervasive perception at the moment that Egypt is making military moves against Ethiopia, but perception is not reality," he said.
Mr Hassan stressed that the military aid to Somalia was requested by Mogadishu itself, following Ethiopia's deal with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland for access to the sea and possible use of the coastline for a naval base, which angered many of its neighbours.
"It was Somalia who came to Cairo and requested military aid," he said. "We must remember this is entirely natural since many Horn of Africa nations are not happy with what they see as Ethiopia's unilateral and overly ambitious moves in the region."
The dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia led to Mogadishu calling on the African Union to remove Ethiopian troops from a peacekeeping mission, which the body has been sending to Somalia to assist in its fight against Al Shabab, an Al Qaeda-affiliated insurgency that has been at war with Somalia's government since 2012. The gap left by the removal of Ethiopian troops was filled by Egypt, with the country, in addition to shipping weapons, agreeing to plug the void and train Somalia's military, Mr Hassan said.
To gain the upper hand in the dam dispute, Egypt has, over the past 10 years, pursued stronger ties with Ethiopia's neighbouring countries and other nations in the Nile basin. Cairo has provided these countries with technical assistance in various sectors and has also delivered aid packages.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has also made more visits to sub-Saharan Africa than any previous leader of the country, suggesting a commitment to fostering these relationships in the hope of encouraging Ethiopia to adopt a more accommodating stance in negotiations. "Space was made for Egypt because Somalia does not trust Ethiopia at the moment, which is something it has in common with many other Horn of Africa nations," said Mr Hassan, who is now a diplomat.
Addis Ababa has reacted negatively to the deal between Cairo and Mogadishu, filing an official letter to the UN Security Council this month, condemning what it called Egypt’s “aggressive approach” in the region’s politics. The letter was sent in response to an earlier complaint sent by Cairo to the Security Council to complain about Addis Ababa's continuing unilateral actions over the Gerd project.
Ethiopia's reaction to the initial deployment of Egyptian troops to Mogadishu, Mr Hassan said, was more an indication that it feels "guilty and cornered" – because of the disputes with most of its neighbours – than a sign Cairo is taking meaningful military action.
"When someone has done something wrong, they are always on the lookout and their guilt shows in their posture," he said. "I see this in Ethiopia's response. I think it was a bit of an overreaction to file a complaint to the Security Council over the Cairo-Mogadishu deal.
“Ethiopia itself recently held military talks with Morocco and Egypt did not bat an eye nor did it interfere to prevent the talks or any consequent deals. If one country wants to engage with another on certain matters, how is it anyone’s business to interfere?”
The growing tension has also led to speculation about a potential defence protocol between Egypt and Eritrea – another neighbour with which Ethiopia has previously been at odds. However, Mr Hassan warned against a simplistic view of the situation, stating that shared interests between Egypt and Eritrea do not mean they will “wage a full war” against Ethiopia.
“Eritrea has its own security and military matters to consider and even if it is coming close to Egypt because of shared interests, it has a lot more in common with Ethiopia on account of the ethnic commonalities between both peoples,” he said. “We mustn’t forget that Eritrea and Ethiopia share borders, common security objectives and economic interests – these things aren’t just erased because of one disagreement.”
While acknowledging Egypt's increased engagement with the Horn of Africa exhibits clear political ambitions for more influence in the region, primarily motivated by Cairo's efforts to bring Addis Ababa to the table to sign a binding agreement on the Nile dam, he stressed the shipment was not an act of aggression against Ethiopia.
