Seven Opec+ nations agreed on Sunday to raise collective production by 188,000 barrels a day in June, pressing ahead with the unwinding of voluntary cuts as the alliance grapples with the biggest structural shake-up in years following the UAE's exit on May 1.
Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, which met online on May 3, agreed that the increase represents the next tranche of the additional adjustments first announced in April 2023.
The group said the rollback could be paused, reversed or accelerated depending on market conditions, as producers balance supply policy with output constraints from the Iran war.
The meeting was the group's first since the UAE formally left Opec on May 1, ending more than five decades of membership.
The UAE, the world's seventh-largest oil producer, had announced its decision ,on April 28 as Opec prepared to meet in Vienna, citing a growing mismatch between its rising production capacity and the quotas it was permitted to pump under the group's framework. As part of the Opec+ supergroup, the UAE had been producing close to 30 per cent below its capacity of 4.85 million barrels a day.
The June allocation for the seven producers is divided as follows: Saudi Arabia and Russia each take on the largest share of the increase at 62,000 bpd, bringing their required production to 10.291 million bpd and 9.762 million bpd, respectively.
Iraq adds 26,000 bpd to a target of 4.352 million, Kuwait 16,000 bpd to 2.628 million, Kazakhstan 10,000 bpd to 1.599 million, Algeria 6,000 bpd to 989,000, and Oman 5,000 bpd to 826,000.
The group also used the meeting to press its conformity agenda, reiterating a commitment to fully compensate for volumes overproduced since January 2024. Group production compliance will be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, with the next session scheduled for June 7.
The June increase comes against a backdrop of historic supply collapse across the Gulf. The Iran war wiped out 7.88 million barrels per day of Opec's production in March, marking a 27 per cent monthly decline to 20.79 million bpd. The supply shock surpassed the 6.28 million bpd decline recorded in May 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic, and exceeded the output losses seen during the 1970s oil crisis and the 1991 Gulf War.
