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France has offered to mediate talks between Lebanon and Israel to avoid a full-scale Israeli army occupation of southern Lebanon.
French officials do not have a plan to put on the table to encourage the sides towards progress, but Paris believes the effort can help to bring an end to the conflict.
"There is no concrete plan at this stage," a source told The National. Israel appears to want to launch talks under fire, while Lebanon has reportedly asked for the fighting to stop before negotiations can begin. "We are still far from any real de-escalation," the source said.
Paris hopes to push Lebanon to accelerate the disarmament of Hezbollah despite hesitation caused by fears of starting a civil war, said reports in the Lebanese press.
A statement from five countries, including France, on Monday warned of the "devastating humanitarian consequences" of a significant Israeli ground invasion.
Jointly with the UK, Canada, Germany and Italy, the authors said an attack must not happen and called for meaningful engagement between Israeli and Lebanese negotiators.
France argues it is in Lebanon's interest to disarm the Iran-backed militia, which also functions as a political party, before Israel employs greater force. France also recognises the threat posed by Hezbollah to Israel, and has urged Lebanese officials to come up with a plan.
'Welcome' initiative
While many observers have described President Emmanuel Macron as trying to punch above his diplomatic weight as he tries to find a solution for the Lebanon conflict, others argue that there is merit in his efforts to help. A former mandatory power with a large Lebanese community, France has a history of organising international financial assistance for Lebanon in times of crises.
Israeli-French relations, however, suffered from France's recognition of Palestine last year, leading to accusations of anti-Semitism by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against Mr Macron, which he has flatly rejected.
"This initiative is nonetheless welcome, because there is an existential threat facing the state of greater Lebanon that was proclaimed by France in 1920 and France is the last actor that speaks to all Lebanese factions," said Karim Bitar, lecturer in Middle East Studies at Sciences Po Paris.
Mr Bitar said that Lebanon would be ready to recognise Israel if it respects a number of conditions, including withdrawing from the five points in southern Lebanon that it has occupied in breach of a ceasefire agreed after the last round of fighting in 2024.
The US appears to have lost interest to the point of recently withdrawing its representatives from a tripartite ceasefire mechanism that had been set up with France, Lebanon and Israel after the last conflict ended in late 2024.
'Political volunteerism'
France views itself as the only western country interested in engaging significant political energy in helping Lebanon's current government, which French officials have described as brave for outlawing Hezbollah.
They believe Israel's attacks, which have displaced about 15 per cent of the Lebanese population – more than 800,000 people – and killed more than 850, is weakening the government's room for manoeuvre.
Strategic foreign affairs decisions are traditionally in the hands of the French president, whose adviser on Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, has harshly condemned Israel's attacks on Lebanon, describing them as “disproportionate.” Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has pushed back on such descriptions in interviews.
Mr Macron has said on X in the past days that he had spoken to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, as well as with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, Iraqi Prime Minister Shia Al Soudani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and US President Donald Trump.
Mr Macron also organised a call recently between Syrian and Lebanese leaders, enabling them to speak on equal footing – a strategic shift after decades of the former Assad regime treating Lebanon as a vassal state which it occupied from 1976 to 2005. Paris this year took part in mediations during clashes between Kurdish militias and Damascus in north-eastern Syria.
“Throughout its history, France has often been accused of overplaying its hand. But sometimes it does work. Sometimes this political volunteerism can pay off, and I don't see any other countries that could play this role today,” Mr Bitar said.
France has a very solid working relationship across Arab partners, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, Mr Bitar added, which could also help in case a mechanism to replace the UN peacekeeping mission at the Israeli border is required in South Lebanon. Unifil has been deployed since 1978 and is scheduled to start withdrawing next year.
Two informed sources cautioned that reports that Israel and Lebanon may normalise soon were premature. An Axios report published on Saturday claimed that France had a plan for Lebanon to recognise in exchange for an end of the war - the two countries have never signed peace treaties since Israel's founding in 1948. It was vigorously denied by Paris over the weekend. Axios has stuck to its reporting.
Israeli silence
Meanwhile, Lebanon's offer to negotiate with Israel has received no response. “Lebanese officials appear open to discussing border demarcation and possibly some form of neutrality or a non-aggression pact, but not full normalisation; it's not on the table as of now,” the second source said.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Sunday that no talks are expected “in the coming days” after reports on supposedly imminent negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to be held in France or Cyprus.
Israel has intensified its attacks across Lebanon, while Hezbollah continues to fire daily at northern communities in Israel. Fierce ground battles are also ongoing in the strategic border town of Khiam, a gateway into deeper Lebanese territory.
