Italy, a close Israeli ally in the EU, has adopted a harsher tone on the country in recent weeks as domestic pressure from public opinion over the war in Gaza mounts.
Defence Minister Guido Crosetto this week condemned Israel's intention to occupy Gaza city, saying the country's cabinet had "lost its reason and humanity".
Recently pressed by pro-Palestine activists to "say a word about the genocide", Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni responded that she "worked every day on the Palestine genocide", in apparent acknowledgement of a hotly contested term that is rejected by Israel and the US.
With a population estimated at 59 million, Italy is the EU's third-largest economy. Its position is closely scrutinised as any shift in the bloc's bigger countries could influence discussions over an EU vote in Brussels on imposing sanctions on Israel.
"The political class, which has been rather silent over the past two years, senses that is no longer strategic to remain silent," said Maria Luisa Fantappie, a programme head at the Institute of International Affairs in Rome. "They are feeling pressure from the bottom."
Ms Meloni is regarded as one of US President Donald Trump's strongest allies in Europe and has rarely publicly backed policy at odds with his.
Yet she also has to reckon with polls showing that support for Israel is at an all-time low. A June YouGov survey found that at six per cent, Italians scored the lowest when asked if Israel had responded proportionally to the October 7 attacks, compared to Germans, Danes, French and Spanish.
Maria Luisa Fantappie
In a phone call with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Ms Meloni on Monday expressed her "deep concern" over Israel's plans to occupy Gaza city after 22 months of war. Israel's military operation has killed 61,599 Palestinians after about 1,200 people died in a Hamas-led attack against Israel.
Comparison to Putin
Yet the Italian cabinet is unlikely to translate its change in tone to policy as it probably wants to stay aligned with the US, analysts have told The National.
Kelly Petillo, programme manager for the Middle East and North Africa at the European Council on Foreign Relations, described Mr Crosetto's statements on Monday as "the toughest so far expressed by a member of the Meloni government."
Mr Crosetto, a harsh Russian critic, told the daily La Stampa that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had adopted methods that had become "dangerously similar" to those of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine.
His comments were probably motivated by the fact that even within Israel’s defence establishment there is reportedly no support for the recently announced new plan to take over Gaza, Ms Petillo said.
Experts expressed doubt that Italy would lift its opposition to a suspension, even partially, of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, which would represent the most meaningful step taken at a co-ordinated level against Israel.
Ms Meloni, who last month visited Algeria, takes pride in engaging diplomatically with Arab states. She is perpetuating an Italian tradition, adopted previously by centrist governments, of not displeasing the US and keeping business and diplomatic ties with Israel, Ms Fantappie said.
"Italy has rarely taken pioneering positions in foreign policy issues in the past decades," she added.
No Palestine state recognition
Italy also appears to be no closer to recognising Palestinian statehood, despite a push by France which has so far convinced G7 countries such as Canada and the UK, as well as Australia. Rome's position remains steadfast, although Italy was one of the 17 states that took part in a two-state solution conference in New York last month, led by Saudi Arabia and France.
"Italy is keen for recognition to have an impact but is aware that if Washington doesn’t change tack, then Israel will not either and to Italy this means recognising Palestine will not have impact," Ms Petillo said.
Recognising a Palestinian state does not equate with endorsing sanctions against Israel, Ms Fantappie highlighted. "Supporting the Global Alliance for a two-solution doesn't necessarily mean and entail a substantial revision of their own relation to Israel," she said.
France, which has led the initiative, has also shied away from imposing sanctions on Israel, and has said it would not enforce an ICC arrest warrant against Mr Netanyahu.
The latest and most controversial move to be taken by a European country was Germany's decision to partially suspend weapons exports to Israel.
Germany views Israel's security as "reason of state" because of its responsibility in the Holocaust, and its weapons exports represent about one third of Israel's military purchases.
The decision caused criticism among some politicians in Chancellor Friedrich Merz's political party. Mr Merz has defended his decision, saying his country could not supply weapons in a conflict in which hundreds or thousands could be killed.
Neither Italy nor Germany have clarified their position on the EU Commission's recent proposal to partially suspend Israel from a flagship research programme, Horizon. Although the move is widely described as symbolic, it would be the first concrete step at EU level against Israel, and is supported by countries, including France and The Netherlands.
For now, it appears that Italy and Germany are watching each other closely. "Italy is watching Germany’s posturing very carefully and might indeed shift its position if Berlin does too in a substantial way – which at this stage is still uncertain it will happen," Ms Petillo said.
