What lies behind Macron’s Palestine recognition plan?

French leader tries to lead European-Arab attempts to stop the war in Gaza

French President Emmanuel Macron hopes recognising Palestinian statehood, which he said may happen in June, can secure him a major diplomatic win, The National understands.

He is planning to put pressure more Arab states to establish relations with Israel at an upcoming UN conference in New York. He has not named the Arab countries but diplomats and analysts point at Saudi Arabia, which has tied engagement with Israel to its recognition of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.

There have been talks for years of a potentially groundbreaking US defence deal with Saudi Arabia tied to Riyadh engaging diplomatically with Israel. Saudi Arabia is scheduled to host US President Donald Trump in May before co-organising the conference on Palestine with France the following month, which is dedicated to a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict.

The idea is that recognition of Palestine by France, and hopefully other western countries, on one hand, coupled with recognition of Israel by a number of Arab states on the other, will support long-term stability in the region.

"We are working on all of these elements with our partners, particularly with a view to the international conference for the two states [Israel and Palestine] that we will co-chair with Saudi Arabia in June," a French diplomatic source told The National. "A number of states have yet to normalise relations with Israel, including Saudi Arabia. Without a political perspective, this work cannot begin. We are in discussions with all our partners to this end."

Macron is working closely with Egypt and Jordan in order to help them elaborate a plan that leads to some sort of disarmament of Hamas

Analyst Rym Momtaz

Speaking to French TV in his plane back from Egypt on Wednesday, Mr Macron said he hoped to "finalise the mutual recognition process by several parties" at the June conference.

Israel's full integration into the Middle East region involves "a move towards normalisation with its neighbours", the diplomat said. "This requires mutual recognition and the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and all those that can contribute to peace."

'Not taboo'

By publicly announcing his intention to recognise Palestinian statehood, Mr Macron is signalling a shift in French policy. The French leader had long said it was "not taboo" but must come "at a useful moment". He had shied away from joining fellow EU countries Spain and Ireland when they made a joint announcement with Norway last year.

France is an important European power and its recognition of Palestinian statehood would be a diplomatic boost for Palestinians. Behind closed doors, it is a matter of interest for other Western countries. The British government is “very seriously considering” recognition of Palestine, Western officials told The National earlier this week.

Mr Macron hopes to rally as much support as he can from the Group of Seven countries, said Rym Momtaz, editor in chief of Carnegie Europe’s blog Strategic Europe. They are the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK. "He is leading a major diplomatic push. He does not want his recognition of Palestine to not have any effect," Ms Momtaz told The National.

In France, where the Israel-Palestine conflict is particularly sensitive due to its large Jewish and Muslim populations, Mr Macron's announcement was backed by his socialist predecessor, Francois Hollande.

If recognition of a Palestinian state "comes within a framework that allows countries that do not recognise Israel to do so and other countries that do not recognise Palestine or the Palestinian state to do so, it is a good process", Mr Hollande told French radio.

Meanwhile, the French left, which is traditionally more pro-Palestinian, said that such a decision was long overdue. It highlighted that close to 150 countries have already recognised Palestine, though that number includes few Western countries. The influential French far right, which has strengthened its ties with Benjamin Netanyahu's government despite its anti-Semitic past, said recognising Palestinian statehood would be "premature".

What can persuade Saudi Arabia?

Some doubt that Mr Macron's strategy will work. Recognising Palestinian statehood is not the diplomatic equivalent of Saudi Arabia accepting to engage with Israel, said Laure Foucher, a senior Middle East research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris.

"Macron is trying to extricate himself from his ambiguous position on Palestinian statehood by linking it to normalisation with Israel," Ms Foucher told The National. "But Saudi Arabia cannot normalise with Israel without obtaining concessions from the US, namely regarding defence. It also wants signals from Israel that it is serious about Palestinian statehood."

The US is Saudi Arabia's major diplomatic interlocutor on the Israel-Palestine conflict – not France. Saudi political commentator Ali Shihabi told The National that Riyad's position on Palestine was unlikely to be swayed. "That is a new issue that Macron appears to be inserting, and I don't think it will change the Saudi position," Mr Shihabi said, in reference to calls for French calls for engagement with Israel by Arab states.

Speaking on Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Christophe Lemoine said that a two-state solution implied "reciprocal recognition of Israel by a certain number of countries that have not done it".

Yet it appears that Israel has no intention of recognising a Palestinian state. A year and a half after 1,200 Israelis were killed in Hamas-led attacks, Israel's retaliatory war on Gaza has led to the deaths of more than 50,500 Gazans. Now, after breaching a US-brokered ceasefire, Israel appears poised for a military occupation of the enclave. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to engage with Israel under such circumstances.

Palestinians in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron salvage belongings after their houses were demolished by Israel. AFP

Mr Macron also said that the mutual recognition process would further isolate Iran. "I also want to participate in a collective dynamic that must allow all those who defend Palestine to recognise Israel in turn, which many of them do not do, [and] to be clear in fighting those who deny Israel's right to exist, which is the case with Iran, and to commit ourselves to collective security in the region," he said.

France has taken a tough stance on Iran's nuclear programme. Indirect US-Iran talks are set to start on Saturday in Oman. Mr Trump has warned that if the talks fail, "there will be bombing", adding that Israel would be expected to lead the attack against Iran.

There is little hope that Arab countries other than Saudi Arabia may be interested in engaging with Israel. Syria and Lebanon have technically been at war with Israel since its foundation in 1948. Israel bombed Syrian military sites and invaded a buffer zone in the south-west of the country after the fall of the Assad regime in December. Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam last month rejected the idea of establishing ties with Israel.

Other countries in the region have signed peace agreements with Israel – Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994. In 2020, Israel established ties with the UAE and Bahrain in what was known as the Abraham Accords.

Support for Arab peace plan

As he inches closer to recognition of Palestinian statehood, Mr Macron has also tried to lead a European-Arab response to Israel's violation of a ceasefire in Gaza last month and blockage of humanitarian aid – moves that are supported by Mr Trump, who wants to transform the enclave into a real estate project.

During his visit to Egypt's border crossing with Gaza at El Arish, Mr Macron pointed to French aid that had been refused entry by Israel. "I am addressing you in front of batches of goods from French aid that were rejected and that, some of them, will unfortunately expire in the coming days. They were rejected because the boxes are made of iron," he said.

Mr Macron also organised a phone call between King Abdullah II of Jordan, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Mr Trump. They told the US President that a "40 to 50-day" ceasefire in Gaza was necessary, Mr Macron said, in addition to the release of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. The US is historically Israel's closest ally and Mr Trump is close to Mr Netanyahu.

Alongside Arab leaders, the French President has been working on operationalising the Arab peace plan for Gaza adopted last month in Cairo. Speaking during his visit to El Arish, Mr Macron called for "the resumption of discussions to consolidate an agreement on the security and political solution for Gaza".

"Macron is working on closely with Egypt and Jordan in order to help them elaborate a plan that leads to some sort of disarmament of Hamas," Ms Momtaz said. "That is part and parcel of his recognition of Palestinian statehood."

Relations between France and Israel have however become increasingly difficult as Mr Netanyahu took offence at Mr Macron's criticism of the conduct of the Israeli military offensive on Gaza.

Despite Mr Netanyahu expressing his "disappointment" with Mr Macron in October, the French President has continued to send strong signals of support to Israel. They include an announcement that France would not arrest the Israeli leader, despite an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes in Gaza. Mr Macron has also made fighting anti-Semitism a priority and was the only foreign leader to organise a national ceremony for French Jews killed in the October 7, 2023, attacks in Israel.

"At least he's invested in trying to obtain recognition of Palestinian statehood, and that is a good thing," Ms Momtaz said. "It's a topic that does not even appear to be on the radar of other European leaders."