Austria goes to the polls in a general election on Sunday, with the anti-immigrant Freedom Party pushing for victory on a pledge to usher in "five good years" and punish the establishment for a series of crises.
Chancellor Karl Nehammer is seeking re-election after taking control of a conservative-green coalition in 2021, when charismatic former leader Sebastian Kurz was toppled by a corruption scandal. Mr Nehammer's main rival is the Freedom Party's Herbert Kickl, whose slogans include "remigration" – the forced return of non-ethnically European immigrants – and a ban on "political Islam".
The Freedom Party has accused Mr Nehammer of presiding over "chaos and decline" during the Covid-19 pandemic and years of inflation, war and insecurity. The Russia-friendly party, which fiercely opposed Covid-19 lockdowns, says Austria has sacrificed its neutrality and independence to the EU and World Health Organisation.
Mr Nehammer, who has responded by calling Mr Kickl a conspiracy theorist, has narrowed the Freedom Party's poll lead in the final weeks of the campaign. The race received a jolt amid severe flooding in central Europe and a terrorist threat at a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna, with a teenage ISIS supporter accused of plotting an attack.
The two politicians could end up working together unless the centre-left Social Democrats, currently polling in third, can stick their foot in the door. Unlike in Germany, working with the far right is not consider taboo, which means the Freedom Party could follow similar parties in Sweden, Italy and the Netherlands into Europe's corridors of power.
The populist: Herbert Kickl
Herbert Kickl wants to be known as the "people's chancellor". The bearded face of the 55-year-old triathlon enthusiast has been front and centre in the Freedom Party's campaign, as he urges voters to "listen to your gut feeling" and give the ruling parties a bloody nose.
The party says the problems faced by Austria in recent years – the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the resulting gas shortages and refugee crisis, record high asylum claims and flashes of extremist violence – can be laid at the door of an establishment "uni-party".
Pledges to curb migration include suspending the right to asylum, turning people away at Austria's borders and setting up migrant processing centres on "other continents", where relatives would have DNA tests to prove their connection.
Emphasising a "hyperbolic portrayal of migrants as being lots of young, dark-skinned men who are potentially either criminal or terrorist" is one of the party's main themes, Daniela Pisoiu, an extremism expert at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, told The National.
"But it’s not the only topic. It might not even be the most important topic for the people who choose them, because what they also talk about are things people probably care more about, such as financial stability," she added. "There is also the topic of the war in Ukraine and, of course, Covid. They have invested a lot of work into portraying these crises as catastrophes and arguing how incapable the establishment has been and how they are going to be the saviours of the people."
Critics say Mr Kickl shares the blame for Austria's failures. As interior minister from 2017 to 2019, he ordered raids on Austria's intelligence service, leaving its agents isolated from allies. When a CIA tip-off foiled the Taylor Swift plot, his successor said he dreaded to think what would have happened on Mr Kickl's watch.
The Freedom Party's spell in power ended in disgrace amid a Russian corruption scandal exposed by footage filmed secretly in Ibiza. Today it says Austria should buy gas from Russia and stop paying into an EU weapons fund for Ukraine.
The party's fixation with Covid-19 has dragged it into fringe territory as it rails against the WHO and a new pandemic treaty. Rivals also warn of echoes of the Nazis in its rhetoric. A 2010 quote from Mr Kickl defending the Waffen-SS, the paramilitary group at the heart of the Holocaust, has resurfaced during the campaign.
The incumbent: Karl Nehammer
While Mr Kickl is Austria's closest equivalent to Republican candidate and former US president Donald Trump, Karl Nehammer is hardly a liberal analogue to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. As a conservative interior minister, he also took a hard line on immigration, calling for Afghan refugees to be housed in deportation centres after the fall of Kabul, rather than allow them to be resettled in Europe.
An AI experiment run by a newspaper compared the Austrian parties' manifestos and found Mr Nehammer's People's Party and Mr Kickl's Freedom Party were the best match for a potential coalition, based on policy similarities.
But in the personal contest, Mr Nehammer, 51, has cast himself as a steady pair of hands, compared with Mr Kickl. The floods gave him a chance to play crisis manager and the crisis has allowed him to narrow the Freedom Party's lead in the polls.
After the Taylor Swift concert plot, he announced a counter-terrorism drive and demanded new powers for Austria's intelligence agencies to monitor online messenger apps. He said this would be a red line in any coalition talks after the election.
On migration, Mr Nehammer says Austria's toughened policies are working and has referred to a 97 per cent cut in illegal entries from Hungary. He says he will not let migration and integration be the sole domain of those who "sow hatred and spread extreme-right ideology".
The Freedom Party dismisses the image of competence. Voters have "suffered enough under the yoke of the People's Party's catastrophic policies" and have the chance to choose "five good years" under Mr Kickl, its general secretary Christian Hafenecker said.
The outsiders
Polls once had the centre-left Social Democrats as the Freedom Party's main challengers, but their candidate Andreas Babler has slipped into third. Urging voters to block a right-wing coalition, Mr Babler held up a list of Freedom Party criminal convictions in a TV debate, including corruption and Holocaust denial.
Social Democrats say the party will improve Austria's integration and deradicalisation policies without allowing a "blanket suspicion" of the country's Muslims to take hold. It promises to control energy and housing costs and maintain an "active neutrality" by promoting peace talks in Ukraine and the Middle East.
The Social Democrats could end up as part of a coalition with Mr Nehammer's party, potentially including liberal party Neos. But an agreement between the left and the Freedom Party cannot be ruled out entirely, despite their obvious differences. The governing Greens have dropped to fifth in the polls.
Minor parties include a pro-Palestine Gaza List that hopes to win a seat in Vienna, but it may fail to obtain the 4 per cent necessary to qualify for wider representation. Lead candidate Irina Vana told The National the campaign means "we can publicly put up our signs and nobody can tell us to take them away".
