UN sanctions on Iran may be reimposed within days as it refuses to give-in to European demands that French diplomats have described as “reasonable and precise”.
As the UN General Assembly meets this week in New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have a last chance to try to stop the sanctions before a September 28 deadline for them to be reimposed.
Behind closed doors, three European countries – France, the UK and Germany – are hoping to engage in last-minute diplomatic talks with Iran, which has argued without success that the 2015 nuclear deal was made void by the US’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018.
“Though there is little time left, the possibility of an agreement still exists in the period of 30 days that is part of the snapback mechanism,” a French diplomatic source said. “It is up to Iran to seize the moment as fast as it can by offering the necessary concrete gestures in the next days.”
Iran appears to have been taken by surprise by the three countries' determination to reimpose UN sanctions that had been in place between 2007 and 2015 – the year the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action deal was struck.
The aim of the deal was to stop Iran developing a nuclear weapon, by offering it incentives not to enrich uranium to weapons grade.
Iran insists it has no ambitions to have a nuclear bomb. But more than 70 Iranian parliamentarians have proposed a change in that doctrine, telling security chiefs that Israel has "reached the brink of madness".
A fatwa issued years ago by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forbids the use of nuclear weapons but "their production and retention as a means of deterrence is a separate matter," the members of parliament wrote in a letter published by Fars news agency.
Iranian isolation
At talks in Istanbul in July, Iranian negotiators irritated the Europeans by giving evasive answers to one of their most pressing demands – the location of 440kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent, way above the level needed for civilian use.
Revealing the location, allowing inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency and restarting direct talks with the US, are the three requirements of the three countries for Iran to avoid the return of sanctions.
These conditions have been framed as the only way to maintain a fragile regional peace. Iran appears increasingly isolated, after a 12-day war with Israel and the US in June that came six months after the toppling of regional ally, Syria’s former president Bashar Al Assad.
Negotiations appear deadlocked with Iran’s highest security body on Saturday saying that the return of sanctions will “effectively suspend” its co-operation with the IAEA. Iran has also threatened to withdraw from the non-proliferation arms treaty.
The offer from the European countries to extend the mechanism by six to eight months to give more time for negotiations appears to have fallen on deaf ears in Tehran. The Europeans were also unconvinced by a deal struck in Cairo two weeks ago between the IAEA and Iran, because it failed to give a clear timeline for the return of UN inspectors.
'Good cop, bad cop' strategy
Earlier this year, the Europeans appeared sidelined when indirect Iran-US talks were launched under Omani mediation. When they collapsed with the 12-day war, Iran was left with only Europeans to talk to, albeit at a lower protocol level, as it was not foreign ministers but their deputies or political advisers that met in Istanbul and Geneva.
“The Islamic Republic has always had a 'good-cop, bad-cop' strategy by trying to divide Europeans and Americans in negotiations,” said Clement Therme, from Saudi-based think tank the International Institute for Iranian Studies. “Now that Trump has bombed them, there’s only bad cops left.”
European foreign ministers have co-ordinated their moves towards the return of sanctions with the US and held several calls with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “The Islamic Republic hoped that differences between Europe and the US on trade and Ukraine would influence their position on Iran,” Mr Therme said.
The prospect of the return of sanctions has contributed to a fall of the Iranian currency against the dollar. Iran’s Chamber of Commerce has predicted that inflation would rise from 50 to 90 per cent if the sanctions were reimposed. The economy is further strangled by a US embargo.
Ultimately, accepting the European offer of an extension of talks would allow Iran to remain in the diplomatic game, said Benjamin Hautecouverture, a nuclear expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank in Paris.
“Europeans made a gesture that allowed Iran to continue to exist diplomatically,” Mr Hautecouverture said. “Instead of becoming a historic breaking point, the US bombing campaign hasn’t stopped the conversation from continuing on technical points like IAEA inspections. That in itself shows that there is still a chance for dialogue.”
