Threat of war underlines divisions in Lebanese politics

Decision of Lebanese armed group Hezbollah to launch attacks at Israel has received mixed response

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Lebanon is at risk of being dragged into another conflict with neighbouring Israel, a situation condemned by many Lebanese politicians, as the country faces one of the worst economic crises in modern history.

The powerful Lebanese movement Hezbollah and its foe Israel have traded blows on the border in the past few days, although on Tuesday the front was quiet but tense.

The exchange came amid the latest war between Israeli forces and militants in Gaza that began again at the weekend.

A senior official of Hezbollah, an armed group and political party, said its “guns and rockets” were with the Palestinian people.

But while sympathising with the plight of the Palestinians, the appetite for a potential war was not evident in others.

"Lebanon failed to sustain its commitment towards the Eurobonds, how can it sustain conflicts?" said an official from Lebanese Forces, the largest party in parliament and one of the most strident critics of Hezbollah, referring to Beirut's default on its eurobond debt in 2020.

"What happened yesterday was not in the favour of any Lebanese," the official said of the incursion into Israel that led to retaliatory air strikes.

"Watching the cars on the highway trying to escape the south – who supports this?"

The government reaction in Lebanon has been decidedly muted, perhaps because some cabinet members are Hezbollah-backed politicians.

It was two days after the Israel-Gaza conflict reignited on Saturday before caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati spoke publicly on the matter, saying the priority was to "maintain security and stability in southern Lebanon".

After Mr Mikati met Foreign Minister Abdalla Bou Habib, the latter said "we do not want Lebanon to enter the ongoing war".

Those comments came hours before the air strikes that killed three Hezbollah members.

The strikes came after the Israeli military said it killed a number of militants who had crossed from Lebanon into Israel – an operation claimed by the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement.

While they have not engaged in all-out war since 2006, skirmishes and disputes between Hezbollah and Israel are common under the terms of so-called informal rules of engagement.

A large UN peacekeeping force, Unifil, patrols the demarcation line between Israel and Lebanon – countries technically at war – along the Blue Line.

"We still think the exchanges are within Blue Line norms," a western diplomat told The National, referring to the Israel-Hezbollah violence of the past few days.

"But we're concerned about the risk of miscalculation."

The representative of the Lebanese Forces, a largely Christian-led party, insisted "what's happening in Gaza should remain in Gaza", pointing to Lebanon's dire economic situation.

"There should be an agreement between everybody that Lebanon does not need this. It's not for us to put the country on the top of a volcano created because we say we want to show solidarity with the Palestinians," the representative said.

"Tomorrow, if Gaza wins and Hamas comes out of this victorious, for some reason or another, but Lebanon is destroyed – what's the benefit of that?"

Scars of the month-long 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah are still fresh in the mind of the Lebanese. Many hundreds were killed and large parts of the country levelled.

Now the country is in an even worse state, with depositors locked out of their savings, the currency at 98 per cent of its pre-crisis value and widespread shortages of basic essentials including clean water, medicine and electricity.

"I see some people screaming for war. I wonder if they will say the same if Israel destroys their home," said Mohammed, who is originally from the deep south of Lebanon, one of the worst-hit areas of the 2006 war.

Even for Lebanon's deeply polarised confessional political landscape, divisions are wider than ever. For nearly a year, parliament has failed to agree on the next president.

That situation has slipped its way into the discourse over the war next door and the potential for conflict in Lebanon.

Mr Mikati said the "developments requires speeding up the election of a new president and stopping the existing political tensions".

The presidential file was also alluded to by the Lebanese Forces official, who referred to the dialogue that some parties – including Hezbollah – have called for over the issue.

"Wasn't it Hezbollah who was calling for dialogue, dialogue, dialogue, because Lebanon should only be governed by dialogue?" the official said.

"Wasn't that the rhetoric of Hezbollah? Where is the dialogue now? How can you take Lebanon into a war without asking the people?

"Even the Israelis, with all their rifts, they are sitting together to form an emergency government to see together how they will confront this."