LATEST: Gaza in darkness as Israel invasion looms
In southern Lebanon, the days are marked by intermittent exchanges of artillery and rocket fire as Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Israel military engage in tit-for-tat strikes along the Lebanon-Israel border.
Wednesday was the fourth consecutive day of cross-border exchanges, raising a worrying question in the minds of many Lebanese: could the situation spiral out of control as the arch enemies test their unwritten rules of engagement?
The clashes so far have resulted in the death of three members of Hezbollah and two members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, according to the two groups. At least one Israeli soldier was also killed in the battle, the Israeli military said.
On Wednesday, Israeli strikes caused injuries to three civilians, as reported by the Lebanese Italian Hospital in Sour.
The risk of war is very substantial. Hezbollah won’t let a complete destruction of Hamas's capabilities happen
French diplomat
But the situation has not yet escalated into a full-blown open conflict, with both sides adhering to the principle of proportionate retaliation.
"The risk of war is very substantial," a French diplomat told The National.
"For now, it's not a high-intensity conflict, Hezbollah is primarily sending messages of deterrence.”
However, the situation could quickly escalate in the event of a full ground invasion of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas, the Hezbollah-allied Palestinian militant group governing the blockaded Strip, “which seems very likely”, the diplomat said.
“Hamas has achieved significant strategic successes: it is now solely spearheading the Palestinian cause, while Israel has faced a violent humiliation.”
Against this backdrop, “Hezbollah won’t let a complete destruction of Hamas's capabilities happen,” he said.
But “it depends on various factors, the perception of each side's capabilities... The situation can quickly slip out of the control of the involved parties".
Another western diplomat cautioned that while the unwritten terms of engagement were still being followed, the risk for miscalculation was high.
Others maintain a more optimistic outlook.
Political analyst Imad Salamey said both sides are aware of the substantial cost that an open conflict would carry, including thousands of casualties and widespread infrastructure damage.
“In my view, Hezbollah wants to show solidarity with the Palestinians and rekindle sympathy among the Sunni population," he said, alluding to the long-standing sectarian divide between Shiites and Sunnis, a defining factor in the region's political landscape.
But the cost of openly engaging in the conflict far outweighs the potential benefits for Hezbollah.
“Any declaration of war would face strong domestic opposition from anti-Hezbollah factions, which would carry significant political costs," he said.
For example, a politician from the Lebanese Forces, a faction deeply opposed to Hezbollah, said Lebanon was unable to bear the brunt of a war – especially given the dire economic situation it faces. "What's happening in Gaza should remain in Gaza," the official said, adding that conflict was only a detriment to Lebanon.
Mr Salamey also stressed that the power balance was not in favour of Hezbollah, as the US is rapidly sending weapons, air defences and munitions to Israel.
On Wednesday, the world's largest aircraft carrier arrived in the eastern Mediterranean.
“The US is a third-party actor constraining Hezbollah's full participation in the war," he said.
“Another factor to consider, is that Hezbollah's own constituency have nowhere to go in the event of a full-blown conflict as they have historically sought refuge in Syria."
He added that Israel also does not have an interest in opening a new front with the Shiite militia and suffering additional losses.
"Even if Hezbollah are not as powerful, they can inflict significant damage," he said.
“But everything is possible, one miscalculation that caused massive casualties on either side, could trigger the war.”
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Match info:
Manchester City 2
Sterling (8'), Walker (52')
Newcastle United 1
Yedlin (30')
