Could Israel-Hezbollah border exchanges trigger a new war?

Arch enemies have engaged in intermittent conflict in recent days amid violence in Israel and Gaza

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In southern Lebanon, the days are marked by intermittent exchanges of artillery and rocket fire as Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah and the Israel military engage in tit-for-tat strikes along the Lebanon-Israel border.

Wednesday was the fourth consecutive day of cross-border exchanges, raising a worrying question in the minds of many Lebanese: could the situation spiral out of control as the arch enemies test their unwritten rules of engagement?

The clashes so far have resulted in the death of three members of Hezbollah and two members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad, according to the two groups. At least one Israeli soldier was also killed in the battle, the Israeli military said.

On Wednesday, Israeli strikes caused injuries to three civilians, as reported by the Lebanese Italian Hospital in Sour.

The risk of war is very substantial. Hezbollah won’t let a complete destruction of Hamas's capabilities happen

French diplomat

But the situation has not yet escalated into a full-blown open conflict, with both sides adhering to the principle of proportionate retaliation.

"The risk of war is very substantial," a French diplomat told The National.

"For now, it's not a high-intensity conflict, Hezbollah is primarily sending messages of deterrence.”

However, the situation could quickly escalate in the event of a full ground invasion of Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas, the Hezbollah-allied Palestinian militant group governing the blockaded Strip, “which seems very likely”, the diplomat said.

“Hamas has achieved significant strategic successes: it is now solely spearheading the Palestinian cause, while Israel has faced a violent humiliation.”

Against this backdrop, “Hezbollah won’t let a complete destruction of Hamas's capabilities happen,” he said.

A Palestinian girl holds two children as she stands on a street in Gaza city as Israel continues to launch air strikes. AFP

Smoke plumes billow during Israeli air strikes on Gaza city. AFP

A Palestinian girl following an Israeli air strike in Khan Younis. Reuters

Palestinians survey the rubble of a house destroyed in Israeli strikes in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

A Palestinian woman, covered in dust, carries a child in Gaza city. AFP

A Palestinian man with a child outside al-Shifa hospital in Gaza city. AFP

Israeli soldiers walk through Kibbutz Be'eri. Days earlier Hamas militants killed more than a hundred civilians near the border with Gaza. Getty Images

A wounded Palestinian man Ala Al-Kafarneh, who survived Israeli strikes, attends a hospital in Gaza city. Mr Al-Kafarneh lost his pregnant wife and several members of his family in air strikes after they fled Beit Hanoun. Reuters

Supermarket shelves containing dry goods are left depleted in Tel Aviv. Getty Images

An injured Palestinian man arrives at Al-Shefa hospital in Gaza city. EPA

A boot lies on the ground outside a damaged house in Be'eri, Israel. EPA

An Israeli army self-propelled howitzer near the border with Gaza in southern Israel. AFP

Palestinian mourners during the funerals of Al-Agha family members killed in Israeli strikes in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

Family and friends of May Naim, 24, who was killed by Palestinians militants at a party near the Israeli border with the Gaza Strip, during her funeral in Gan Haim, Israel. Getty Images

Palestinian children in Khan Younis fill bottles with water from public taps during the conflict with Israel. Reuters

Men outside a morgue in Khan Yunis console a woman mourning loved ones killed in an Israeli air strike. AFP

A Palestinian girl injured in Israeli strikes is taken to hospital in Gaza City. Reuters

An Israeli woman is evacuated by paramedics following a rocket attack launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel, in Sderot. Reuters

A man looks at the destruction in the ravaged Jabalia refugee camp, following overnight Israeli air strikes. AFP

The daughter of Zakaria Abu Maamar, a member of Hamas's political office, at her father's funeral, after he was killed in an air strike in Khan Younis. Reuters

A collapsed building after an Israeli bombardment in Gaza City. AFP

Firefighters attend a burning building after an Israeli bombardment in Gaza City. AFP

Women and children in Gaza City. AFP

An Israeli army soldier passes a Merkava battle tank in northern Israel near the border with Lebanon. AFP

An Israeli strike on the port of Gaza City. AFP

Demonstrators outside the West Los Angeles Federal Building in California during a rally in support of Israel. AFP

Mourners at the funeral of Palestinians killed in overnight Israeli shelling in Khan Younis in Gaza. AFP

Israeli journalists take cover during a rocket attack from Gaza in the southern Israeli kibbutz of Kfar Aza near the border. AFP

Palestinians rescue a young girl from the rubble of a destroyed residential building following an Israeli air strike. AP

Mourners at the graveside of Eden Guez, who was killed as she attended a festival that was attacked by Hamas gunmen from Gaza. Reuters

An Israeli fireman recovers after extinguishing cars set on fire by a rocket fired from Gaza. AP

Smoke billows from a boat after a strike by Israel on the port of Gaza City. AFP

Destroyed residential buildings in Gaza City. AP

Rockets from Gaza launched towards Israel. Reuters

A Palestinian woman sits among the rubble in the destroyed Al-Ramal neighborhood following an Israeli air strike in Gaza City. EPA

Israeli soldiers in armoured vehicles near the northern town of Kiryat Shmona close to the border with Lebanon. AFP

Buildings destroyed by Israeli strikes in Gaza city. Reuters

Nicole Izsak, right, confronts a Palestinian supporter near the Israeli consulate in New York, claiming her cousin is being held hostage in Gaza. AFP

The abandoned site of the Supernova music festival, besieged by Hamas militants in southern Israel. AFP

An attack on the site by Hamas gunmen from Gaza left at least 260 people dead. Reuters

A man carries a blood-stained flak jacket belonging to a Palestinian journalist, who was killed with two colleagues when an Israeli missile hit a hospital building while they were outside reporting, in Gaza city. Reuters

An Israeli soldier holds a rescued dog as he takes position near a bomb shelter in Kibbutz Kfar Aza, southern Israel. Reuters

Protesters chant and wave the Palestinian flag at a rally in Melbourne, Australia. Getty Images

Israeli border police walk past a burnt-out car as rockets are launched from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, southern Israel. Reuters

Palestinians amid the rubble following Israeli air strikes that razed a neighbourhood in Gaza city. AP

Palestinians carry a wounded man at Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza city. EPA

Palestinians inspect damage in the aftermath of Israeli strikes in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip. Reuters

But “it depends on various factors, the perception of each side's capabilities... The situation can quickly slip out of the control of the involved parties".

Another western diplomat cautioned that while the unwritten terms of engagement were still being followed, the risk for miscalculation was high.

Others maintain a more optimistic outlook.

Political analyst Imad Salamey said both sides are aware of the substantial cost that an open conflict would carry, including thousands of casualties and widespread infrastructure damage.

“In my view, Hezbollah wants to show solidarity with the Palestinians and rekindle sympathy among the Sunni population," he said, alluding to the long-standing sectarian divide between Shiites and Sunnis, a defining factor in the region's political landscape.

But the cost of openly engaging in the conflict far outweighs the potential benefits for Hezbollah.

“Any declaration of war would face strong domestic opposition from anti-Hezbollah factions, which would carry significant political costs," he said.

For example, a politician from the Lebanese Forces, a faction deeply opposed to Hezbollah, said Lebanon was unable to bear the brunt of a war – especially given the dire economic situation it faces. "What's happening in Gaza should remain in Gaza," the official said, adding that conflict was only a detriment to Lebanon.

Mr Salamey also stressed that the power balance was not in favour of Hezbollah, as the US is rapidly sending weapons, air defences and munitions to Israel.

On Wednesday, the world's largest aircraft carrier arrived in the eastern Mediterranean.

“The US is a third-party actor constraining Hezbollah's full participation in the war," he said.

“Another factor to consider, is that Hezbollah's own constituency have nowhere to go in the event of a full-blown conflict as they have historically sought refuge in Syria."

He added that Israel also does not have an interest in opening a new front with the Shiite militia and suffering additional losses.

"Even if Hezbollah are not as powerful, they can inflict significant damage," he said.

“But everything is possible, one miscalculation that caused massive casualties on either side, could trigger the war.”