Is AI layoff uncertainty putting socialist policies in a new light for US voters?

Experts delve into this week's US elections, including the New York City mayoral poll won by Zohran Mamdani, for insights into voters' thoughts

New York City mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani's success has raised questions about whether AI work uncertainty is influencing US voters. AFP

Concerns about artificial intelligence's impact on jobs combined with the rising cost of living could mark a new voting trend in US elections, experts say.

After a Democratic Party sweep of major US elections, including the historic victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York City's mayoral polls, politicians and commentators are looking for insight into what voters are thinking.

Mr Mamdani, a self-described Democratic socialist, campaigned on the rising cost of rent in the city while pushing for community-run grocery shops, free buses and universal child care – safety-net programmes that would help in times of layoffs.

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It is too early to draw a major conclusion based solely on Mr Mamdani's win, as a host of issues were behind his victory. Yet months before the election, the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, pointed out that socialism in the US was having a moment, particularly among young people.

The survey showed that 62 per cent of citizens aged 18 to 29 held a "favourable view" of socialism, something that senior editor Michael Chapman described as "shocking".

The push for social programmes in the New York City election took place at a time of confusion in the US labour market about AI.

Towards the end of October, Amazon's chief executive Andy Jassy said AI was a motivating factor behind the company's decision to axe 14,000 workers. Microsoft, Meta and Google also announced layoffs this year.

The job cuts are notable for the fact that they have affected white-collar workers, computer programmers and managers.

Amid these cuts, a recent poll from the Pew Research Centre showed an increasing chasm between experts and the general public in enthusiasm for AI in the US.

Experts surveyed by Pew were significantly more likely – 56 per cent compared with 17 per cent – than the average American to say that AI would have a "very or somewhat positive" impact on society over the next 20 years.

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Perhaps more striking, only 23 per cent of the general public polled said that AI would have a positive impact on how they work, with a "majority of US adults" thinking that AI would eliminate jobs in the next two decades.

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has sought to clear up what he says is a misconception about AI. “You’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI," he has said throughout the year.

Public sentiment, however, shows that Mr Huang's efforts, and those of many AI proponents, do not yet seem to be winning hearts and minds.

A similar poll by Pew conducted in October indicated that younger voters are "in virtually every country surveyed are more aware of AI" than older electors, and some say that could affect the electorate over the long term.

Timothy Kneeland, a professor of history, politics and law at Nazareth University in upstate New York, said that increased enthusiasm for socialist policies and candidates such as Mr Mamdani among younger voters means that the shift is more than just a blip.

"Young people fear this trend will continue and will seek some form of security, whether through regulation or democratic socialist policies that will guarantee universal basic income [UBI], single-payer health insurance, free education and public transportation," Prof Kneeland told The National.

The rising concern over AI runs counter to US President Donald Trump's initial popularity with many blue and some white-collar workers.

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The 2024 Republican Party platform, much of it influenced by Mr Trump, promised to rescind policies and regulatory protection that "hinders AI innovation". In his AI Action Plan released in July, he also pushed to "dismantle unnecessary" barriers related to AI development with hopes of empowering US technology companies.

Prof Kneeland said that while Mr Trump has made no secret about his affinity for empowering Big Tech, words like "dismantle" have caused concern among many workers, and those seeking elected office in the months and years ahead might have to better read the mood of voters.

"Elected officials will have to play catch-up," he said. "Those fearing AI's impact on jobs and employment will begin to call for more restrictions and new policies to support those individuals who lose their jobs."

Peter Yacobucci, a political science professor at Buffalo State University, said that AI is yet another challenge presented to US workers in recent decades.

"It injects uncertainty and fear into the electorate," he said, adding that Mr Mamdani's Democratic socialist policies were a stark contrast to the once popular US rhetoric of "brutal free-market capitalism".

In some ways, Prof Yacobucci said, Mr Mamdani took a page from Mr Trump's playbook in identifying voter fears. "Yesterday [he] showed it can propel the party to electoral success," he said, adding that other Democrats might be wise to tap into AI concerns.