US President Donald Trump has stepped in once again to ensure TikTok will not go dark in the US on Saturday.
“My administration has been working very hard on a deal to save TikTok, and we have made tremendous progress,” he posted to his Truth Social platform.
“The deal requires more work to ensure all necessary approvals are signed, which is why I am signing an executive order to keep TikTok up and running for an additional 75 days. We hope to continue working in good faith with China.”
In a statement to The National, ByteDance emphasised that any potential deal involving TikTok first has to be approved under Chinese law.
"ByteDance has been in discussion with the US government regarding a potential solution for TikTok US," read the correspondence from a ByteDance spokesperson.
"An agreement has not been executed. There are key matters to be resolved."
Congress passed a law last year ordering ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, to divest from the platform over concerns American user data was being accessed by Beijing. Lawmakers set a deadline of January 19 for ByteDance to do so or face a ban, though a reprieve was ultimately granted by Mr Trump, who set a new deadline of April 5.
Regardless of whether or not a deal is ultimately reached that satisfies the US government's concerns over user data on the China-owned social platform, technology analysts say the app's most loyal fans have learnt to walk TikTok's regulatory tightrope.
“It has definitely left some scars, but it hasn't really shattered user or creator confidence,” said Matt Navarra, a social media consultant and analyst.
“It's more like a bruise than a break and TikTok's audience, especially Gen Z, are deeply embedded in the culture of the platform.”
He said long-time content creators have learnt to hedge their bets and spread content on other platforms such Instagram or YouTube, but they would only leave TikTok if forced off by the ban.
Mr Navarra suggested the perception of TikTok's brand by advertisers on the platform might give more cause for concern.
“Big brands have been more cautious whenever platforms face political risks, and advertising budgets tend to follow stability. So TikTok's political turbulence has given some marketers pause, and they've held back campaigns, or they've shifted them to safer ground.”
Mr Navarra said that even if TikTok survives in the US, there could still be long-term consequences for other platforms that do not originate in America.
“I think the regulatory shadow won't disappear,” he said. “There's a legacy here.”
Since 2020, US officials and technology analysts have expressed concern that China could be using American users' data to its advantage, creating a national security vulnerability.
TikTok and, in particular, chief executive Shou Zi Chew, have repeatedly denied that US user data is compromised in any way, but this has done little to lessen concern in Congress.
Mr Trump's original decision to grant TikTok a reprieve irked both Democrats and Republicans – some because of strong support for the ban, others because they felt that Mr Trump had misused his executive powers to sidestep the legislation.
“This prescribed non-enforcement of the TikTok ban was not only unlawful but also raised serious questions about TikTok’s future, as the law imposes liability – up to $850 billion – on companies for facilitating TikTok’s continued operations in the United States,” Democratic senators Ed Markey, Chris Van Hollen and Cory Booker wrote in a letter to Mr Trump.
Republican Representative John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, has also warned that it doesn't appear that ByteDance will divest enough to satisfy the original law.
“If ByteDance stays involved in any way, the deal is illegal – plain and simple,” Mr Moolenaar said at a recent event.
Yet shortly after President Trump again extended the deadline for TikTok's ban, Mr Moolenaar issued a slightly more nuanced statement.
"Any resolution must ensure that US law is followed, and that the Chinese Communist Party does not have access to American user data or the ability to manipulate the content consumed by Americans," he said in part.
Mark MacCarthy, a senior fellow at the Institute for Technology Law and Policy at Georgetown University in Washington, said TikTok may survive in the US, even if a forthcoming deal fails to satisfy the congressional requirement to keep ByteDance's ownership under the 20 per cent threshold.
“My instinct is that US companies get a larger ownership share but ByteDance retains control,” he said, noting that Republicans have largely not challenged the Trump White House on various issues.
Media reports have suggested that US venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz is in the mix for a deal to keep TikTok alive, along with US technology and cloud computing giant Oracle. Amazon has also been mentioned as a potential contender.
Meanwhile, social media experts say that, in the long term, the TikTok regulatory saga sets a precedent.
“TikTok became like the poster child for US and China technology tensions and Trump's manoeuvres set the tone for how America will police foreign tech for the years to come,” Mr Navarra said.
After the legislation calling for the ban passed, TikTok bolstered its presence in Washington, unleashing a massive advertising campaign and opening hiring for 43 new positions – many of them related to government relations – at its offices in the US capital.
According to Pew Research, support for the TikTok ban now hovers around 34 per cent, down from 50 per cent when the poll was first taken in 2023.
What has not changed, according to the poll, is that most of those who still support the ban quote potential national security issues posed by China having access to US users' data.
