Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation has transformed global connectivity. With thousands of satellites orbiting Earth, Starlink provides internet access to underserved and remote regions, often filling the gaps left by traditional communication infrastructure.
The global scale and significance of this network, however, has caused a debate over whether the owner of Tesla has the power to influence global geopolitics through Starlink, with its reach into conflict zones, rural areas and regions where governments may lack control over telecoms. Mr Musk's reach already extends worldwide through his ownership of media platform X which has also drawn criticism around the topic of moderating hate speech.
Connecting the world
By September 2024, SpaceX had launched more than 6,100 satellites, with the goal of eventually stationing 12,000 and potentially increasing that number to 42,000 satellites in low Earth orbit. It currently serves more than 70 countries, making it a critical tool in connecting millions of people around the world.
Amar Vora, head of the space division at Serco Middle East – a company that provides services and consultancy to the public and private sector – told The National that the billionaire’s influence through Starlink goes beyond merely bridging the digital divide.
“Elon Musk’s influence on global geopolitics is significant, particularly through the soft power he wields by providing communication in regions where access is limited or controlled,” he said.
“This influence has the potential to shape political outcomes or support movements that align with his values. The presence of Starlink could compel governments to align with Musk's business interests.”
Mr Vora said governments might feel pressured to align with Musk's business interests or broader geopolitical goals to secure or maintain access to its services. “This development challenges the traditional state-centric model of international relations, where global influence has predominantly been the domain of nation-states.”
Limited control
Despite Mr Musk’s far-reaching influence through Starlink, the programme operates under the control and regulations of the US government, and a licence is required in the country where it is operating, as well as access to ground terminals.
Michael Byers, Canada research chair in global politics and international law at the University of British Columbia, told The National that Starlink is licensed by federal authorities, which grants the US significant oversight of the satellite network’s operations.
This means that while Mr Musk holds substantial soft power through his global satellite communications, his control is not absolute.
“The United States government is SpaceX’s largest customer, whether for launches for Nasa and Space Force, travel to and from the International Space Station, or communications support from the Starlink mega-constellation of satellites,” said Mr Byers.
“The US government licenses the rocket and satellites and also controls market access to customers for Starlink in the United States. All this is to say that the US government has the ability to constrain and control SpaceX, if it wishes to do so.”
Access during conflict
Starlink’s presence in politically sensitive areas allows Mr Musk to act as a key intermediary in providing essential services. This was particularly relevant in Ukraine, where his satellite network has become a crucial tool during the continuing war with Russia.
In 2022, the Ukrainian government received more than 22,000 Starlink terminals, ensuring continued communication for civilians and military personnel despite Russia’s efforts to disrupt traditional communication systems.
Mr Musk had asked the US government to cover the costs of providing Starlink services in Ukraine, as SpaceX could no longer afford to fund the service independently, which reportedly cost $20 million a month to maintain. Last year, the Pentagon awarded a contract to the rocket company to continue the services in Ukraine.
Bound by US law
This reality shows how, despite Starlink’s growing geopolitical relevance, its operations remain deeply tied to US strategic interests.
This was evident when Mr Musk was unable to activate Starlink over Crimea during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although the Ukrainian government requested Starlink access to support military operations in the region, Mr Musk was bound by US sanctions, which recognise Crimea as being under Russian control.
Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, told The National that Mr Musk would have been violating US law if he had activated Starlink over Crimea.
“Even though it's understandable that the Ukrainian government would ask Elon [to activate Starlink over Crimea], he could not do that without violating US law,” said Mr Pace, who served as the executive secretary of the White House's National Space Council after former US president Donald Trump nominated him in 2017.
Mr Musk was allowed to activate Starlink over Iran during the 2022 nationwide protests, despite the Iranian government's severe internet restrictions.
The protests were caused by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian woman who died in custody after being arrested by the country's “morality police” for allegedly violating the government's strict dress code.
Her death led to widespread protests, with citizens calling for greater rights and freedoms, particularly for women. Iran’s government imposed severe internet restrictions. In response, Mr Musk activated Starlink to provide internet access in the country, bypassing local censorship. Iran's government, however, took measures to block the satellite signals.
Meeting world leaders
Mr Musk’s international influence extends beyond technology as he frequently engages with political leaders, drawing attention to his role in shaping global discussions. This, however, is far from unprecedented.
“He’s a celebrity, and politicians meet with celebrities all the time,” said Mr Pace. “Some of them are sports and movie people that don’t have large communication systems.”
“We would have pictures of Henry Kissinger meeting with people decades after he stopped being a government employee. He was still a notable celebrity who would go and meet lots of people. If it was Taylor Swift meeting with prominent world leaders, would people care?”
Mr Musk has met several world leaders over the years, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, discussing topics such as technology investments and space co-operation.
While his political engagements may attract attention, they do not necessarily imply US government endorsement or a shift in geopolitical strategy, according to Mr Pace.
“The US government is probably not that thrilled with him meeting them, so I don’t think the government is using Elon Musk,” Mr Pace said. “If it was up to them, they would probably prefer he not, but he’s a US citizen, and he’s free to go and meet with whoever he wants.”
