UAE-led weather warning project to reach 100 million farmers by 2030

Cop30 announcement heralds expansion of initiative launched in 2023

Clouds in Mumbai before monsoon season. AP

A UAE initiative that gives advance warning of bad weather, pest outbreaks and other risks aims to reach 100 million farmers by 2030, it was announced at the Cop30 climate summit.

The Agricultural Innovation Mechanism for Scale (Aim for Scale) project could improve yields and help farmers, especially those in poorer regions, to cope with the extreme weather that is becoming more common as a result of climate change.

Tens of millions of farmers have received weather information from the initiative already in 2025, with the number set to increase significantly, it was revealed at the summit in Belem, Brazil.

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Aim for Scale, launched at Cop28 in Dubai two years ago, is supported by the International Affairs Office at the UAE Presidential Court and the Gates Foundation, and also involves several other governments and banks.

By offering weather forecasts, advisories about pests and information about soil, the system allows farmers to optimise operations.

Mariam Almheiri, who is head of the International Affairs Office at the UAE Presidential Court, said that Aim for Scale was testament to the UAE’s global role in advancing innovative solutions and in working with partners to roll them out.

“Aim for Scale embodies this vision, bringing together governments, development banks and partners to channel investment into solutions that can be deployed widely and sustainably, improving livelihoods and strengthening food systems around the world,” she said.

Extreme measures

As global temperatures increase, yields in some regions will fall, with a study published in June in Nature indicating that calorie yields from staple crops could be nearly a quarter lower by 2100 than they would have been without climate change.

Extreme temperatures, droughts and excessive rainfall are becoming more common, making accurate forecasting that allows farmers to mitigate impacts more important.

Recent years have seen significant advances in AI-powered digital tools that can help farmers, including those with modest incomes in developing nations, by sending information and alerts to their mobile phones.

Farmers can use the alerts to decide, for example, how much fertiliser or water to use, and what machinery and labour they will need, as the information may highlight the ideal time to plant. Alerts may warn farmers of advancing threats such as monsoons.

The Asian Development Bank, a member of Aim for Scale, wants to send out alerts that include weather forecasts to 20 million farmers across Asia and the Pacific region.

An area submerged by floods in the Rangpur district of Bangladesh. AFP

“ADB is engaging in this partnership to promote the use of digital solutions as well as catalyse more investments into weather and climate information services to aid agriculture production,” said Noelle O’Brien, the bank’s director of climate change.

Advisories are being provided to more than seven million farmers in Ethiopia through a partnership between Aim for Scale and the Agricultural Transformation Institute.

From next year, partnerships between Aim for Scale, governments and multilateral development banks will spread across 11 more countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Among the priority nations previously highlight are Peru, Bolivia, Columbia, Chile, Senegal, Nigeria, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Laos, India and Bangladesh.

In India, artificial intelligence was used to create monsoon forecasts which were sent by text message to 38 million farmers earlier this year by the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, a partner in Aim for Scale. Between 97 and 98 per cent of farmers wanted to keep receiving forecasts.

“This programme harnesses the revolution in AI-based weather forecasting to predict the arrival of continuous rains, empowering farmers to plan agricultural activities with greater confidence and manage risks,” said Pramod Meherda, additional secretary at the Indian ministry.

“We look forward to continuing to improve this effort in future years.”

AI forecasts are said to have correctly predicted a pause in a monsoon’s northward progression between two weeks and four weeks in advance, something other methods did not achieve.

Spreading the word

In September, in a project launched by Aim for Scale partners the Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence, the UAE National Centre for Meteorology and the University of Chicago, training on weather forecasting for agriculture was offered to meteorological and agricultural agencies from Bangladesh, Chile, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria. By 2027 officials from an additional 25 countries will be trained.

“Every farmer, regardless of where they live, should have access to the information they need to confidently make decisions that will strengthen their livelihoods,” said Paul Winters, executive director of Aim for Scale and professor at the University of Notre Dame Keough School of Global Affairs.

“Reaching 100 million farmers is ambitious, but by working together and investing in scalable, evidence-based solutions, it’s within reach.”