Negotiators were working round the clock at Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Wednesday as time to secure a crucial climate deal starts to slip away.
Countries remain at odds on the summit’s main goal – how much financial firepower can be arranged to help vulnerable countries avoid the worst effects of climate change and transition towards a sustainable future.
This is known as the "new collective quantified goal" (NCQG). The Cop29 presidency on Wednesday said a new draft of the deal that will arguably define the fate of the summit would be released at midnight. Countries will then discuss the package in a “single setting” on Thursday before more drafts are expected.
“We need to pick up the pace,” Cop lead negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, told a Cop29 plenary session of the summit on Wednesday. “We hope that this plan will put us on track to deliver together successfully on Friday.”
Divisions remain
Trillions of dollars are believed to be needed but such numbers have never been agreed collectively.
There are major divides over how big the climate finance pot should be, who pays into it and how much should be in the form of core funding, or grants and loans. The role the private sector should play is also being examined.
Underlining the challenge, Bolivia expressed concern about the pace of the talks in the same session. Diego Pacheco, a Bolivian negotiator, said some figures that had been floated in the region of $200 billion were “unfathomable”.
"We cannot accept this,” he said.
Syeda Rizwana Hasan, adviser at Bangladesh’s Climate Ministry, spoke of concerns over the pace of the talks. "There is slow progress on climate finance … particularly on the loss and damage fund and NCQG outcome,” she said.
The summit has been often dominated by geopolitical point scoring, controversial speeches and the role of fossil fuels as much as the hard work of negotiating.
On Wednesday, Haitham Al Ghais, secretary general of Opec, the global oil production group, told Cop29 that crude oil and natural gas are a “gift from God”, echoing similar remarks by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev at the start of the summit. Burning fossil fuels, of which Azerbaijan is a producer, are the primary driver of climate change.
What needs to be agreed?
Countries need to agree on a new NCQG to replace the current $100 billion a year, which runs until 2025.
Developed countries at Cop29 are asking wealthy emerging economies such as China and some Gulf states to contribute to the NCQG, as the current funding pledge is financed by countries considered industrialised when the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was drawn up in 1992. But times have changed.
Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action, on Wednesday said it was not only the EU supporting this and it was important for others that “have the ability” to rise to the occasion.
“We have indeed embarked on fruitful conversations with our Chinese counterparts,” said Mr Hoekstra. “The world contains many more countries who are not in the developed category and yet at the same time have accumulated significant affluence so we're having conversations with all of them.”
However, he declined to pinpoint a financial amount, saying this was not the best approach to reaching agreement.
“Otherwise you have a shopping basket with the price but you don’t know exactly what’s in there,” he said. “It is important to determine the elements first.”
Determined attitude on the ground
Cosima Cassel of the E3G think tank told The National the atmosphere on the ground at Cop29, however, was “one of determination”.
Ms Cassel, programme lead of climate diplomacy and geopolitics, said the G20 meeting that ended on Tuesday sent positive signals on finance and the arrival of ministers had galvanised the negotiators.
“A pivotal development was the announcement that the UK and Brazil will work as a ministerial pair to help shape a comprehensive Cop package,” she said.
Ms Cassel also warned, however, that “key issues remain unresolved” with only two days to go. “On finance, there are divergent views on structure, quantum and contributor base," she said. "Adaptation also remains critically underfunded."
What we can expect in final hours
Cops rarely finish on time. Cop28 was forced into an extra day, while Cop27 in Egypt did not end until 36 hours after its scheduled closure.
Some predictions on the UK-based climate website, Carbon Brief, said the summit could continue into Monday.
“I’m optimistic a deal can be reached in Baku,” said Ms Cassel. “But it must deliver on several fronts. Achieving this will require compromise, leadership from ambitious countries and bridge-building between divergent positions.
“As incoming Cop President, Brazil will play a crucial role, through its ability to inspire confidence in a credible process, and unlock more finance and support greater ambition.”
Around the venue over the past two weeks, climate campaigners have injected much-needed urgency into the talks, urging politicians to act and deliver funds to those who need it the most.
Dr Harshita Umesh, climate campaigner and founder of health non-profit group Vaada, on Wednesday said the finance deal had huge potential.
“The NCQG has the potential to protect the health and well-being of people and the planet,” said Dr Umesh. “Financing climate justice is financing the health and well-being of our generation and generations to come, creating more equitable, resilient and sustainable futures.”
Meghna Chakkraborty, founder of South Asia Young Women in Water, questioned if countries would follow through on promises. “The real question is, will they pay? Or will we see the same $100 billion promised in 2009, when nobody paid a penny?”
