Wall Street on Saudi Arabia charm offensive as bankers chase deal bonanza

Investment banks around the world are clamouring to join what promises to be a bonanza, and not just the IPO of Saudi Aramco, which could be valued at upward of $2 trillion.

Saudi Arabia provides a bright spot in an otherwise dismal landscape for investment banks, whose earnings are under pressure from record-low interest rates. Waseem Obaidi for The National

When news broke in January that Saudi Arabia was considering an initial public offering of its state-owned oil company, the first reaction on Wall Street was shock. Then calls began pouring into Dubai, the Middle East’s financial hub, from senior bankers in London and New York.

Investment banks around the world are clamouring to join what promises to be a bonanza – and not just the IPO of Saudi Arabian Oil Company, or Aramco, which could be valued at upwards of US$2 trillion. The kingdom is planning to sell hundreds of state assets to bolster its finances and reduce dependence on oil. That includes as much as $15bn of bonds.

Saudi Arabia looks even more promising with investment banking in a global slump and Brexit set to deter dealmaking for months to come. “Saudi Arabia is close to the top, if not at the top, of the agenda for banks,” said Christopher Wheeler, an analyst with Atlantic Equities in London.

Fees paid to banks in the kingdom jumped by almost a third to about US$100 million in the first five months of the year, according to New York research firm Freeman. While that is a fraction of what investment banks generate in the United States and Europe, the work of diversifying the kingdom’s economy is just starting.

International banks are adding staff, dispatching top executives to Riyadh and promoting Saudis to senior roles. Among the biggest banks, HSBC and JP Morgan Chase appear to have a head start.

HSBC is working on the privatisation of the Saudi stock exchange and the potential break-up of Saudi Electricity. Stuart Gulliver, the chief executive of the London bank, travels to the kingdom regularly to meet decision makers.

Influential Roles

Two HSBC bankers recently jumped to government roles. Mohammad Al Tuwaijri, the chief executive for the Middle East, was appointed as the deputy economy and planning minister in May. Fahad Al Saif, the general manager of global banking and markets at HSBC’s Saudi British Bank, is starting a debt management office that will be responsible for the kingdom’s first international bond sale.

HSBC and JP Morgan, along with Citigroup, were picked just days ago to arrange that offering. Officials at the three companies declined to comment on their Saudi operations.

JP Morgan advised the Saudi Public Investment Fund on its $3.5bn investment in Uber Technologies this month. It also has an advisory role with Aramco. The US’s largest bank set out at the beginning of the year to increase its Saudi staff of 65 by about 10 per cent, said Bader Alamoudi, the chief executive of its local investment-banking unit in January.

Huge Potential

Deutsche Bank, which has about 80 people in the country, named Jamal Al Kishi, a Saudi national, as its chief executive for the Middle East and Africa earlier this year.

“We view Saudi Arabia as a core growth market with huge potential for global investment banks,” said Tamim Jabr, Deutsche Bank’s head of corporate and investment-banking coverage in Saudi Arabia.

The Morgan Stanley president, Colm Kelleher, who travelled to Riyadh last month, told Saudi Arabia's Al Eqtisadiah newspaper that his visit was to reaffirm the bank's commitment to the Saudi market. An official at the New York firm declined to comment.

The big banks are also vying with smaller firms. Verus Partners, a London advisory boutique co-founded by the former Citigroup bankers Mark Aplin and Andrew Elliott, helped Saudi Arabia secure its first loan in 15 years in April, when the government raised $10bn from banks.

Michael Klein, another former Citigroup investment banker, is advising Aramco on its IPO. Mr Klein’s firm is providing strategic advice to the government, while JP Morgan is working on preparations for the IPO and may be among the banks that underwrite the offering.

To reduce the importance of oil, the deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, wants to build the country’s sovereign wealth fund into the world’s largest and increase the proportion of its foreign investments to half, from 5 per cent.

“It’s going to be a fees feast for investment banks,” said John Sfakianakis, the head of economic research at the Gulf Research Centre, a think tank in Jeddah. “No one else in the Middle East, and maybe even emerging markets globally, is embarking on such deep reforms.”

The Aramco IPO would generate at least $50m in banking fees, according to an estimate from Freeman. The kingdom provides a bright spot for investment banks, whose earnings are under pressure from record-low interest rates and escalating capital requirements.

Big Wallet

Bankers typically earn less on deals in Saudi Arabia. On the IPO of National Commercial Bank, bankers, lawyers and accountants split 25 million Saudi riyals (Dh24.4m), or about 0.1 per cent of the deal’s size. That compares with an average of 2.7 per cent for banks underwriting IPOs in Europe, the Middle East and Africa in 2014.

“Banks are seeing a big wallet to go after and they won’t want to miss out,” Mr Wheeler said. “With oil unlikely to return to historical highs, there will be a consistent stream of business coming out of Saudi Arabia for years to come.”

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