A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York. The US stock market’s price-to-sales ratio is currently the most overvalued it has ever been in history. Michael Nagle / Bloomberg
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York. The US stock market’s price-to-sales ratio is currently the most overvalued it has ever been in history. Michael Nagle / Bloomberg
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York. The US stock market’s price-to-sales ratio is currently the most overvalued it has ever been in history. Michael Nagle / Bloomberg
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York. The US stock market’s price-to-sales ratio is currently the most overvalued it has ever been in history. Michael Nagle /

Time for some crash protection as US stocks hit record overvaluation


  • English
  • Arabic

After a whole series of record highs for US stock markets over the summer months, it is tempting to conclude that the bears are permanently beaten in global financial markets and that the bulls will run forever.

However, the study of stock market history shows that only one thing is absolutely certain - it never, ever works like that. Markets always move in cycles, and they go down as well as up.

They are also always at their highest level and most attractive to investors just before they take that inevitable dive into the blue yonder, and make paupers out of many would-be millionaires.

Right now the US stock market’s price-to-sales ratio is the most overvalued it has ever been in history. Higher even than in 1929 before the Great Crash, or the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000.

The respected Cape-Shiller Index of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is also currently only exceeded by 1929 and 1999 levels of overvaluation.

Viewed in this light, stocks are not a place you will want to be when the correction comes, unless you take a very long-term view and won’t need your money for at least another five years.

In fact since June there has been a significant move of investment funds out of the United States and into European stocks - one reason why the dollar has been weakening against the euro, although the concentration of action into a very few mega-stocks has kept the indexes rising.

More than $30 billion was pulled from US stock funds in the last 11 weeks of the summer, the largest such outflow since 2004.

Another worrying phenomenon this summer has been the cryptocurrencies, led by bitcoin. Almost always at the top of any investment boom you will see the emergence of fantastic speculation in what later turns out to be fraudulent and worthless assets.

This time around we have the bubble currencies, more than 800 of them, surging exponentially.

Basically they will only rise in value as long as they can attract new investors and then collapse back to their much smaller original asset bases, wiping out the latecomers.

In 2000 it was the dot-com stocks that performed this function, in 1929 the investment trusts. So what should the prudent investor do on returning from his or her Eid holiday?

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Read more from Peter Cooper:

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The cautious investor will sell out as much as possible and go into cash and precious metals. The more aggressive speculator should dump bitcoin and its me-too currencies, and consider how best to go short in the stock market.

Cash is an obvious safe haven, though you might want to consider the euro or the yen as the US dollar’s recent 12-year high was another cyclical top.

Gold and silver should also be considered as the classic safe haven. Both did well in 2008 to 2011 when almost every other asset went down in price: gold doubled and silver trebled in that period, admittedly after an initial fall when markets first crashed.

Aggressive speculators will be trying to ride the cryptocurrency bubble until the last moment before it bursts. Beware about selling out too late, although the most important consideration is not to become one of the blockheads who actually believes that this time might be different.

As the great investor John Templeton once wrote: ‘this time is different are the four most expensive words in the English language’. And indeed at the age of 90 he made $100 million shorting dot-coms in the 2000 crash.

You can’t short a cryptocurrency. But that does not mean you can’t short the stock market. There are a number of exchange traded products that allow you to do that, although this is really a realm for expert investors.

Many of these short-ETFs are evil products that will quickly steal your money unless you are spot-on with your timing, or just plain lucky. Not everybody is a George Soros in the making, and in a financial storm you might be more comfortable in a safe harbour than on a surf board.

But I am not alone in being pessimistic about this autumn. October is usually the month when financial markets blow up.

Veteran investment guru Jim Rogers is predicting the biggest crash of our lifetimes, as is ‘Rich Dad’ books' author Robert Kiyosaki who first flagged up a 2017 mega-crash back in 2002.

Top hedge fund managers like Paul Tudor Jones and Carl Icahn, and former IMF economist Mohamed El-Erian, are all sounding the alarm. It’s not true that nobody is saying sell.

The problem is that the alarm bell has been ringing for just a bit too long, and everybody is ignoring it right now. That’s actually a classic top-of-the-market indicator too.

That said, 10 years after the last global financial crisis it is still hard to discern any particular catalyst that would set a market sell-off into motion.

Whacky words from the US President just don’t cut much ice these days. Even the North Korean Crisis this summer was barely taken seriously in financial markets.

The most obvious candidate is the raising of interest rates by central banks. Most recessions can be traced back to this cause. But the Yellen Federal Reserve is so slow and cautious it is hard to imagine anything coming as a surprise to shock markets.

My own probable cause is a big US dollar devaluation as investors weigh up the likelihood of the eurozone moving to catch up with the Fed in ‘normalising’ interest rates.

There is an historical precedent as it was arguably the Plaza Accord on the US dollar’s over-valuation in 1985 that triggered the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987. Maybe this time the ducks will line up a bit quicker before they quack.

Shifts in the value of the world’s largest reserve currency do have widespread consequences and it may not be different this time. It seldom is, as the optimists keeping the faith in global stock markets might care to remember before it is too late.

Peter Cooper has been writing about finance in the Gulf for over 20 years

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMohammed%20Alnamara%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMicrofinance%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E16%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFamily%20offices%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of RentSher

Started: October 2015 in India, November 2016 in UAE

Founders: Harsh Dhand; Vaibhav and Purvashi Doshi

Based: Bangalore, India and Dubai, UAE

Sector: Online rental marketplace

Size: 40 employees

Investment: $2 million

Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi

From: Dara

To: Team@

Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT

Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East

Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.

Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.

I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.

This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.

It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.

Uber on,

Dara

Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs

Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12

Power: 819hp

Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm

Price: From Dh1,700,000

Available: Now

Naga
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How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Three-day coronation

Royal purification

The entire coronation ceremony extends over three days from May 4-6, but Saturday is the one to watch. At the time of 10:09am the royal purification ceremony begins. Wearing a white robe, the king will enter a pavilion at the Grand Palace, where he will be doused in sacred water from five rivers and four ponds in Thailand. In the distant past water was collected from specific rivers in India, reflecting the influential blend of Hindu and Buddhist cosmology on the coronation. Hindu Brahmins and the country's most senior Buddhist monks will be present. Coronation practices can be traced back thousands of years to ancient India.

The crown

Not long after royal purification rites, the king proceeds to the Baisal Daksin Throne Hall where he receives sacred water from eight directions. Symbolically that means he has received legitimacy from all directions of the kingdom. He ascends the Bhadrapitha Throne, where in regal robes he sits under a Nine-Tiered Umbrella of State. Brahmins will hand the monarch the royal regalia, including a wooden sceptre inlaid with gold, a precious stone-encrusted sword believed to have been found in a lake in northern Cambodia, slippers, and a whisk made from yak's hair.

The Great Crown of Victory is the centrepiece. Tiered, gold and weighing 7.3 kilograms, it has a diamond from India at the top. Vajiralongkorn will personally place the crown on his own head and then issues his first royal command.

The audience

On Saturday afternoon, the newly-crowned king is set to grant a "grand audience" to members of the royal family, the privy council, the cabinet and senior officials. Two hours later the king will visit the Temple of the Emerald Buddha, the most sacred space in Thailand, which on normal days is thronged with tourists. He then symbolically moves into the Royal Residence.

The procession

The main element of Sunday's ceremonies, streets across Bangkok's historic heart have been blocked off in preparation for this moment. The king will sit on a royal palanquin carried by soldiers dressed in colourful traditional garb. A 21-gun salute will start the procession. Some 200,000 people are expected to line the seven-kilometre route around the city.

Meet the people

On the last day of the ceremony Rama X will appear on the balcony of Suddhaisavarya Prasad Hall in the Grand Palace at 4:30pm "to receive the good wishes of the people". An hour later, diplomats will be given an audience at the Grand Palace. This is the only time during the ceremony that representatives of foreign governments will greet the king.

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies direct from Dubai to Rio de Janeiro from Dh7,000 return including taxes. Avianca fliles from Rio to Cusco via Lima from $399 (Dhxx) return including taxes. 

The trip

From US$1,830 per deluxe cabin, twin share, for the one-night Spirit of the Water itinerary and US$4,630 per deluxe cabin for the Peruvian Highlands itinerary, inclusive of meals, and beverages. Surcharges apply for some excursions.

Moon Music

Artist: Coldplay

Label: Parlophone/Atlantic

Number of tracks: 10

Rating: 3/5

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6

Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher:  Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5

The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S

Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

Engine: 937cc

Transmission: Six-speed gearbox

Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm

Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km

ESSENTIALS

The flights

Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.

The hotels

Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.

The tours

A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages. 

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20EPD%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm

Transmission: 9-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh117,059

COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dooda%20Solutions%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lebanon%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENada%20Ghanem%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AgriTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24300%2C000%20in%20equity-free%20funding%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2011%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

What can you do?

Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses

Seek professional advice from a legal expert

You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor

You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline

In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support

The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm

Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm

Transmission: eight-speed auto

Price: from Dh122,745

On sale: now

City's slump

L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1

THE CLOWN OF GAZA

Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah 

Starring: Alaa Meqdad

Rating: 4/5

Retirement funds heavily invested in equities at a risky time

Pension funds in growing economies in Asia, Latin America and the Middle East have a sharply higher percentage of assets parked in stocks, just at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail markets.

Retirement money managers in 14 geographies now allocate 40 per cent of their assets to equities, an 8 percentage-point climb over the past five years, according to a Mercer survey released last week that canvassed government, corporate and mandatory pension funds with almost $5 trillion in assets under management. That compares with about 25 per cent for pension funds in Europe.

The escalating trade spat between the US and China has heightened fears that stocks are ripe for a downturn. With tensions mounting and outcomes driven more by politics than economics, the S&P 500 Index will be on course for a “full-scale bear market” without Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, Citigroup’s global macro strategy team said earlier this week.

The increased allocation to equities by growth-market pension funds has come at the expense of fixed-income investments, which declined 11 percentage points over the five years, according to the survey.

Hong Kong funds have the highest exposure to equities at 66 per cent, although that’s been relatively stable over the period. Japan’s equity allocation jumped 13 percentage points while South Korea’s increased 8 percentage points.

The money managers are also directing a higher portion of their funds to assets outside of their home countries. On average, foreign stocks now account for 49 per cent of respondents’ equity investments, 4 percentage points higher than five years ago, while foreign fixed-income exposure climbed 7 percentage points to 23 per cent. Funds in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are among those seeking greater diversification in stocks and fixed income.

• Bloomberg

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
 
Started: 2021
 
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
 
Based: Tunisia 
 
Sector: Water technology 
 
Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 

Babumoshai Bandookbaaz

Director: Kushan Nandy

Starring: Nawazuddin Siddiqui, Bidita Bag, Jatin Goswami

Three stars

Turkish Ladies

Various artists, Sony Music Turkey 

BRAZIL%20SQUAD
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Labour dispute

The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.


- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law