Brazilian markets plunged on Monday after President Jair Bolsonaro removed the head of state-controlled oil company, the latest sign that his government is rolling back market-friendly policy initiatives to shore up his sinking popularity.
Mr Bolsonaro’s decision on Friday to replace the University of Chicago-educated economist at the helm of Petroleo Brasileiro, Roberto Castello Branco, after a disagreement over fuel prices surprised even his inner political circle, according to two government sources.
The Brazilian real fell 2.4 per cent on Monday, breaching the key level of 5.5 per dollar, even after the central bank stepped into the market with an offer of currency swaps. Petrobras’s shares plunged 19 per cent as analysts from Credit Suisse Group to JPMorgan Chase cut their recommendations for the stock over the weekend. Brazil’s Ibovespa stock index declined 5.1 per cent, with state-run companies leading losses.
“It’s certainly an indication policy could be headed in the wrong direction,” said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.
There was no room to discuss the move, which shows a president increasingly impatient with the government’s inability to appease his political base, including truckers who have been threatening a strike over rising diesel costs, the sources added.
The president on Saturday justified his decision by saying the oil company’s current management has shown “zero commitment to Brazil”. He added that he’s preparing to replace other parts of his administration that “may not be working”, including in the nation’s power sector. On Monday, he told supporters in front of the residential palace that he’s not interfering in the company, but rather demanding “predictability and transparency” from it.
The move threatens to undermine investor confidence in Latin America’s largest economy at a time its recovery falters amid a second wave of Covid-19. Mr Bolsonaro’s popularity is dropping to near record lows after a programme of cash handouts expired in December, with an MDA poll published on Monday showing his approval rating fell 8 percentage points to 32.9 per cent over the past four months. That has pushed him to find ways to please his political base to the detriment of the austerity agenda of economy minister Paulo Guedes.
“That reminds us of other moments of government meddling in economic policy,” said Caio Megale, chief economist at XP Investimentos, recalling a 2013 decision by former President Dilma Rousseff to reduce electricity prices. “The market wants to know if the president’s decision is a new guideline for economic policy.”
Economists surveyed by the monetary authority lifted their 2021 inflation forecasts above target and also raised their year-end interest rate estimate for the second straight week. Meanwhile, they cut their 2021 economic growth forecast for the third straight week.
James Gulbrandsen, chief investment officer for Latin America at NCH Capital, which has about $3 billion in assets under management, said the uncertainty leaves Brazil at risk of being shunned by investors.
“If Bolsonaro interferes with electricity pricing, it’s probably game over for his ability to attract foreign capital,” he said.
Outgoing chief executive Roberto Castello Branco won investors’ praise by reducing the company’s debt and advocating its independence from the government. His replacement, General Joaquim Silva e Luna, whose nomination needs to be approved by the state-controlled company's board, has been in charge of the Itaipu hydroelectric dam for the past two years, and served as a defence minister in the previous administration.
Mr Guedes has kept silent since Mr Bolsonaro’s announcement on Petrobras because there’s nothing he can say about the decision to make it look better, according to government officials close to him. Yet he’ll try to minimise investor concerns about political intervention by speeding up the approval of austerity measures in congress, the officials said.
The economy ministry declined to comment.
Mr Guedes has spent the past few days negotiating with politicians on the approval of a constitutional amendment that would make room for the government to provide another round of Covid aid to poor Brazilians in exchange for cuts in public spending in coming years. The bill will ensure fiscal credibility and predictability, and talks are going well as there’s an understanding that the country has no time to waste, sources said.
Despite losing several political battles recently, Mr Guedes doesn’t intend to step down before leaving an economic legacy he can be proud of, the sources added.
Why it pays to compare
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
Syria squad
Goalkeepers: Ibrahim Alma, Mahmoud Al Youssef, Ahmad Madania.
Defenders: Ahmad Al Salih, Moayad Ajan, Jehad Al Baour, Omar Midani, Amro Jenyat, Hussein Jwayed, Nadim Sabagh, Abdul Malek Anezan.
Midfielders: Mahmoud Al Mawas, Mohammed Osman, Osama Omari, Tamer Haj Mohamad, Ahmad Ashkar, Youssef Kalfa, Zaher Midani, Khaled Al Mobayed, Fahd Youssef.
Forwards: Omar Khribin, Omar Al Somah, Mardik Mardikian.
Neymar's bio
Total club appearances 411
Total goals scored 241
Appearances for Barca 186
Goals scored for Barca 105
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
NATIONAL%20SELECTIONS
%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Falling%20Shadow%3Cbr%3E6.35pm%3A%20Quality%20Boone%3Cbr%3E7.10pm%3A%20Al%20Dasim%3Cbr%3E7.45pm%3A%20Withering%3Cbr%3E8.20pm%3A%20Lazuli%3Cbr%3E8.55pm%3A%20Tiger%20Nation%3Cbr%3E9.30pm%3A%20Modern%20News%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
SOUTH%20KOREA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EGoalkeepers%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKim%20Seung-gyu%2C%20Jo%20Hyeon-woo%2C%20Song%20Bum-keun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDefenders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKim%20Young-gwon%2C%20Kim%20Min-jae%2C%20Jung%20Seung-hyun%2C%20Kim%20Ju-sung%2C%20Kim%20Ji-soo%2C%20Seol%20Young-woo%2C%20Kim%20Tae-hwan%2C%20Lee%20Ki-je%2C%20Kim%20Jin-su%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMidfielders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPark%20Yong-woo%2C%20Hwang%20In-beom%2C%20Hong%20Hyun-seok%2C%20Lee%20Soon-min%2C%20Lee%20Jae-sung%2C%20Lee%20Kang-in%2C%20Son%20Heung-min%20(captain)%2C%20Jeong%20Woo-yeong%2C%20Moon%20Seon-min%2C%20Park%20Jin-seob%2C%20Yang%20Hyun-jun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrikers%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHwang%20Hee-chan%2C%20Cho%20Gue-sung%2C%20Oh%20Hyeon-gyu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
3pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (Dirt) 1,000m; Winner: Dhafra, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)
3.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 2,000m; Winner: Al Ajayib, Antonio Fresu, Eric Lemartinel
4pm: Handicap (PA) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Ashtr, Abdul Aziz Al Balushi, Majed Al Jahouri
4.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh40,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Falcon Claws, Szczepan Mazur, Doug Watson
5pm: Sheikh Dr Sultan bin Khalifa Al Nahyan Cup – Prestige Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (D) 1,700m; Winner: Al Mufham SB, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Badar Al Hajri
5.30pm: Sharjah Marathon – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (D) 2,700m; Winner: Asraa Min Al Talqa, Al Moatasem Al Balushi, Helal Al Alawi
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The advice provided in our columns does not constitute legal advice and is provided for information only. Readers are encouraged to seek independent legal advice.
City's slump
L - Juventus, 2-0
D - C Palace, 2-2
W - N Forest, 3-0
L - Liverpool, 2-0
D - Feyenoord, 3-3
L - Tottenham, 4-0
L - Brighton, 2-1
L - Sporting, 4-1
L - Bournemouth, 2-1
L - Tottenham, 2-1
Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%207%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%93%203hrs%2029min%2042ses%3Cbr%3E2.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%20%E2%80%93%2010sec%3Cbr%3E3.%20Geoffrey%20Bouchard%20(FRA)%20AG2R%20Citroen%20Team%20%E2%80%93%2042sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeneral%20Classification%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E1.%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3E2.%20Lucas%20Plapp%20(AUS)%20Ineos%20Grenaders%20%E2%80%93%2059se%3Cbr%3E3.%20Adam%20Yates%20(GBR)%20UAE%20Team%20Emirates%20%E2%80%9360sec%3Cbr%3ERed%20Jersey%20(General%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EGreen%20Jersey%20(Points%20Classification)%3A%20Tim%20Merlier%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EWhite%20Jersey%20(Young%20Rider%20Classification)%3A%20Remco%20Evenepoel%20(BEL)%20Soudal%20Quick-Step%3Cbr%3EBlack%20Jersey%20(Intermediate%20Sprint%20Classification)%3A%20Edward%20Planckaert%20(FRA)%20Alpecin-Deceuninck%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Scorline
Iraq 1-0 UAE
Iraq Hussein 28’
Stage 2
1. Mathieu van der Poel (NED) Alpecin-Fenix 4:18:30
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLV) UAE Team Emirates 0:00:06
3. Primoz Roglic (SLV) Jumbo-Visma 0:00:06
4. Wilco Kelderman (NED) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:00:06
5. Julian Alaphilippe (FRA) Deceuninck-QuickStep 0:00:08
Tax authority targets shisha levy evasion
The Federal Tax Authority will track shisha imports with electronic markers to protect customers and ensure levies have been paid.
Khalid Ali Al Bustani, director of the tax authority, on Sunday said the move is to "prevent tax evasion and support the authority’s tax collection efforts".
The scheme’s first phase, which came into effect on 1st January, 2019, covers all types of imported and domestically produced and distributed cigarettes. As of May 1, importing any type of cigarettes without the digital marks will be prohibited.
He said the latest phase will see imported and locally produced shisha tobacco tracked by the final quarter of this year.
"The FTA also maintains ongoing communication with concerned companies, to help them adapt their systems to meet our requirements and coordinate between all parties involved," he said.
As with cigarettes, shisha was hit with a 100 per cent tax in October 2017, though manufacturers and cafes absorbed some of the costs to prevent prices doubling.
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
How to vote in the UAE
1) Download your ballot https://www.fvap.gov/
2) Take it to the US Embassy
3) Deadline is October 15
4) The embassy will ensure all ballots reach the US in time for the November 3 poll
