Opec sees oil demand rebound in 2021

On Tuesday the Vienna-based organisation left its crude demand forecast for 2020 largely unchanged

HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Nigerian Delegate to OPEC Ministerial Conferences (1986-2010), Nigeria’s National Representative on OPEC Economic Commission Board ECB (1993-2008), Governor for OPEC, Nigeria (27.1.2009-12.9.2010), served as Adhoc OPEC Governor at various times, Acting for the Secretary General (1.1.2006 - 31.12.2006), OPEC Secretary General (August 1, 2016 - present)
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Opec expects to see demand rebound in 2021 on the back of growing consumer confidence in the economy, which the exporters’ group expects to grow by 4.7 per cent next year.

"We project that we would see a rebound in 2021 with a strong demand recovery of well over, 6 million barrels a day. And this will hinge, also on economic recovery,” Opec secretary general Mohamed Barkindo told an Energy Intelligence panel on Thursday.

"[The recovery depends on] mass utilisation of vaccines around the world. And the reopening of societies and markets, and the return of consumer confidence, as well as consumer spending,” he added.

On Tuesday, Opec left its crude demand forecast for 2020 largely unchanged in its latest oil market report. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 9.5m bpd in 2020, with overall consumption expected at 90.3m bpd.

Opec also revised its demand forecast for 2021 down by 80,000 bpd reflecting slower growth for countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and non-OECD members. Demand growth for next year is expected at a "solid" 6.5m bpd, Opec said.

In its world oil outlook, Opec expects global oil demand to rebound higher than before the pandemic, reaching 103.7m bpd by 2025, as countries accelerate efforts to revive economies.

The IEA, which also issued its annual outlook this week, expects the pandemic to usher in the slowest decade of energy demand in a century with the global response to the coronavirus reshaping the energy landscape for years to come.

Ahead of Opec's joint technical meeting taking place virtually on Thursday, Mr Barkindo assured the markets that the producers’ pact would strive to remain “consistent”.

"We have always been consistent. Especially since the enactment of the framework of the declaration of cooperation. And the last four years that we have been navigating through different trials, highs and lows,” he told the panel.

“Whatever decision that will be taken. Next month, and in December, is to ensure that the recovery in 2021 will be at a favourable pace and will gather momentum in this fourth quarter, and accelerate in 2021,” he added.

Opec+ will convene its joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on October 19 to review compliance.

Brent, the international benchmark for crude, was down 3.46 per cent, to trade at $41.82 per barrel at 4.46pm UAE time, while West Texas Intermediate, the key gauge for US oil, was down 3.58 per cent at $39.57 per barrel.