With peace in Ukraine and Gaza elusive, US President Donald Trump needs a diplomatic win. With its major allies devastated by Israeli attacks or overthrown in Syria, struggling with sanctions and energy shortages, Iran too needs a way out. Can an agreement help Tehran and Washington to a durable nuclear accord and a more peaceful and prosperous region?
Most commentary on a possible deal has focused on the implications for Iran’s oil exports. If US sanctions were eased, then Iranian oil exports might rise by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day, putting some pressure on oil prices. But more complex, and more interesting, are the wider energy and economic possibilities, and how to combine them with diplomacy.
Of course, big hurdles are still in the way. Iran maintains its right to enrich uranium, while US envoy Steve Witkoff has said, “enrichment enables weaponisation” and “we cannot allow even 1 per cent of an enrichment capability”.
Yet Mr Trump has shown himself willing to overturn Washington’s conventional wisdom and cautious legalism, for bad and good. After a brief meeting with Syria’s new president Ahmad Al Shara, he ordered a swift end to sanctions, a process which dragged out for years in the cases of Iraq and Libya. His recent Gulf visit brought a profusion of announcements of business deals. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has also dangled the carrot of economic opportunities for the US.
A durable peace needs to emphasise economic entanglement. From a US standpoint, that would seek to entice Iran from its current dependence on Russia and China. The GCC would be the natural regional partners.
This is not to be naive about the nature of the Iranian regime, its determination to remain in power, its political and ideological objectives. It will probably remain a difficult place to do business: bureaucratic, corrupt, repressive and opaque. Patriotic dual nationals, seeking to revitalise economic and scientific ties, have been imprisoned for long periods on trumped-up charges, such as oil executive Siamak Namazi, finally released in September 2023 after eight years in prison.
We should also be realistic about the US political system, which finds it very hard to honour its promises or stick to a course of action.
But many insiders, even in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have become deeply interested and involved in making money. Why should only China benefit from Iranian oil, the White House may think? There could be a meeting of minds with Mr Trump’s inner circle.
Previous openings purposely excluded US companies. In 1995, Conoco, which operated Dubai’s offshore oilfields, reached a deal to develop the neighbouring Sirri fields on the Iranian side. But president Bill Clinton vetoed their involvement.
After the signature of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in July 2015, European oil companies tried to return to Iran. The US continued to shut out its corporations, though. International banks stayed out because the US would not give reassurance over sanctions compliance. Under president Barack Obama, powerful lobbies were determined to destroy the deal, which had no enthusiastic defenders even among its architects, and they succeeded when Mr Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018.
Iran had itself missed its chance, dragging its feet on devising and negotiating its new petroleum contract. This time, both sides need constituencies keen on preserving and building on a reset relationship.
Tehran desperately needs to revive its economy. Oil production has actually mostly recovered from US sanctions, running at about 3.3 million to 3.4 million barrels per day, not far below capacity of 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd. Nearly all sales are to China, and Iran incurs some discounts and costs in exporting through the “dark fleet” of tankers willing to risk sanctions.
After a deal, the country could recover its lost markets in countries such as India, Japan and South Korea, competing with its GCC neighbours and, in India, with Russia. It would regain ready access to frozen funds, and to essential petroleum industry kit which it currently procures through shady and costly channels.
Gas production has been faltering, mainly because of falling pressure at South Pars. This field, the Iranian sector of what Qatar terms the North Field, provides 70 per cent of Iranian gas output. Iran needs to install complex and costly compression platforms, which it cannot easily build at home.
Rampant demand growth because of subsidies has left Iranian industry short of fuel and causes frequent winter interruptions. Iran has burnt more oil in power stations to cope, but still suffers blackouts in both winter and summer. Exports to Iraq have been unreliable, and anyway targeted by US political pressure.
Iran needs a three-fold approach: cutting demand by improving energy efficiency, increasing gas output, and raising prices to consumers, and boosting non-gas power generation.
Subsidy reform and higher prices to consumers should be easier in the context of a reviving economy. For boosting production, GCC national companies could work with international majors such as Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil. This could work especially for shared cross-border fields, if a constructive diplomatic framework can be devised.
Out of Iran’s 93 gigawatts of theoretical electricity generating capacity, the share of solar and wind is a truly feeble 1 gigawatt. The Bushehr nuclear power plant adds another gigawatt. The UAE and Saudi together have eight times this much nuclear, solar and wind, and are building more.
Yet Iran’s high-altitude deserts and windy mountain ridges have tremendous potential for renewable installations. This is a major opportunity for the capital and expertise of GCC companies such as Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power.
The tricky enrichment issue could also become a business opportunity. US, European and other nuclear expertise could help manage a regional consortium to make nuclear fuel safely and transparently, including current or aspiring nuclear power users such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt.
Finally, the reintegration of Iran into the regional and global economy would open up enormous interconnectivity. The Caspian, Central Asia, South Asia and the Gulf could be linked by gas pipelines and electricity cables, transmitting and balancing renewable power between three continents.
Too many chances for an Iran-US rapprochement have been missed on all sides since 1979. Military methods and sanctions have been tried extensively, diplomatic efforts somewhat, business not nearly enough. Great risks remain, disappointment and perhaps disaster are still likely. But visible is the sliver of a resolution that would help Iran, the US and the GCC countries to prosper together.
RESULTS
Tottenham 1
Jan Vertonghen 13'
Norwich 1
Josip Drmic 78'
2-3 on penalties
The struggle is on for active managers
David Einhorn closed out 2018 with his biggest annual loss ever for the 22-year-old Greenlight Capital.
The firm’s main hedge fund fell 9 per cent in December, extending this year’s decline to 34 percent, according to an investor update viewed by Bloomberg.
Greenlight posted some of the industry’s best returns in its early years, but has stumbled since losing more than 20 per cent in 2015.
Other value-investing managers have also struggled, as a decade of historically low interest rates and the rise of passive investing and quant trading pushed growth stocks past their inexpensive brethren. Three Bays Capital and SPO Partners & Co., which sought to make wagers on undervalued stocks, closed in 2018. Mr Einhorn has repeatedly expressed his frustration with the poor performance this year, while remaining steadfast in his commitment to value investing.
Greenlight, which posted gains only in May and October, underperformed both the broader market and its peers in 2018. The S&P 500 Index dropped 4.4 per cent, including dividends, while the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, an early indicator of industry performance, fell 7 per cent through December. 28.
At the start of the year, Greenlight managed $6.3 billion in assets, according to a regulatory filing. By May, the firm was down to $5.5bn.
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
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%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFirst%20match%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2020%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%2016%20round%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%203%20to%206%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuarter-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%209%20and%2010%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESemi-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2013%20and%2014%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 201hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 320Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 6-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.7L/100km
Price: Dh133,900
On sale: now
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
MATCH INFO
England 241-3 (20 ovs)
Malan 130 no, Morgan 91
New Zealand 165 all out (16.5ovs)
Southee 39, Parkinson 4-47
England win by 76 runs
Series level at 2-2
Company profile
Company: Eighty6
Date started: October 2021
Founders: Abdul Kader Saadi and Anwar Nusseibeh
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Hospitality
Size: 25 employees
Funding stage: Pre-series A
Investment: $1 million
Investors: Seed funding, angel investors
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AUSTRALIA SQUAD
Tim Paine (captain), Sean Abbott, Pat Cummins, Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Moises Henriques, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Michael Neser, James Pattinson, Will Pucovski, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitchell Swepson, Matthew Wade, David Warner
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
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Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Zayed Sustainability Prize
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre, six-cylinder
Transmission: six-speed manual
Power: 395bhp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: from Dh321,200
On sale: now
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
Drishyam 2
Directed by: Jeethu Joseph
Starring: Mohanlal, Meena, Ansiba, Murali Gopy
Rating: 4 stars
RESULT
Manchester United 1 Brighton and Hove Albion 0
Man United: Dunk (66' og)
Man of the Match: Shane Duffy (Brighton)
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THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre, four-cylinder turbo
Transmission: seven-speed dual clutch automatic
Power: 169bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh54,500
On sale: now