Alessandro Di Battista, Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement lawmaker, speaking at the party's electoral center in Rome. Alessia Pierdomenico / Bloomberg
Alessandro Di Battista, Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement lawmaker, speaking at the party's electoral center in Rome. Alessia Pierdomenico / Bloomberg
Alessandro Di Battista, Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement lawmaker, speaking at the party's electoral center in Rome. Alessia Pierdomenico / Bloomberg
Alessandro Di Battista, Italy's anti-establishment Five Star Movement lawmaker, speaking at the party's electoral center in Rome. Alessia Pierdomenico / Bloomberg

Euro holds breath on Italy, draws support from German deal


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The euro regained earlier losses on Monday but remained prone to volatility as early counts in Italian elections pointed to stronger-than-expected results for eurosceptic parties, with no major party blocs winning an outright majority.

The common currency found some support as Germany's Social Democrats decisively backed another coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives.

The euro traded at $1.2333, slightly above its late US levels, off its seven-week low of $1.21545, which it touched on Thursday.

Exit polls and early counts showed Italy's 5-Star Movement is likely to be the largest single party by a wide margin, a projection a prominent deputy from the party called a "triumph".

The centre-right bloc, made up of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, and the far-right League and Brothers of Italy, is set to win most seats but is seen falling some way short of an absolute majority.

With full results not expected for a few hours or more, market reaction has been limited so far but investors are likely to take fright at any suggestion the 5-Star could form a coalition with the right-wing League.

Exit polls suggested the two forces would have enough seats to govern together and they have in the past shared strong anti-euro views. While the League still says it wants to leave the single currency at the earliest feasible moment, the 5-Star says the time for quitting the euro has passed.

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Read more:

Italians head to polls after bitter campaign

Party's rise puts Berlusconi's mansion back in spotlight

Italy’s 31- and 81-year old political rivals woo mainstream voters

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"On the whole, the results appeared to be in line with prior polls. The focus now is whether the League will become the biggest party in the centre-right bloc. In that case, there's a chance the bloc could fall apart," said Hideki Kishida, senior analyst at Nomura Securities.

The euro started the week on a solid footing as two-thirds of SPD members supported the coalition, clearing the way for a new government in Europe's largest economy after months of political uncertainty.

The US currency was also on slippery footing after President Donald Trump last week proposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, raising fears of retaliation from its trade partners that could trigger a trade war.

"I would think the market will soon digest European politics and shift focus back to the trade issues, in which case the dollar is likely to come under pressure," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.

The dollar was softer against the yen at ¥105.43, near Friday's 16-month low of ¥105.24.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the BOJ would consider an exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy if it met its inflation target in the next fiscal year from April 2019.

Traders will be looking at confirmation hearing in the parliament by two nominees for BOJ Deputy Governors, Masazumi Wakatabe and Masayoshi Amamiya.

Who's who in Yemen conflict

Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government

Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council

Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south

Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory

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Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections" 

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom" 

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Key findings of Jenkins report
  • Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
  • Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
  • Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
  • Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
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Company Profile

Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
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UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million

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Top New Zealand cop on policing the virtual world

New Zealand police began closer scrutiny of social media and online communities after the attacks on two mosques in March, the country's top officer said.

The killing of 51 people in Christchurch and wounding of more than 40 others shocked the world. Brenton Tarrant, a suspected white supremacist, was accused of the killings. His trial is ongoing and he denies the charges.

Mike Bush, commissioner of New Zealand Police, said officers looked closely at how they monitored social media in the wake of the tragedy to see if lessons could be learned.

“We decided that it was fit for purpose but we need to deepen it in terms of community relationships, extending them not only with the traditional community but the virtual one as well," he told The National.

"We want to get ahead of attacks like we suffered in New Zealand so we have to challenge ourselves to be better."