The World Bank on Thursday lowered its 2025 growth forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa largely due to the extension of voluntary Opec+ production cuts.
Growth in the region is expected to increase from 1.8 per cent last year to 3.4 per cent this year, a downgrade of 0.8 per cent from the World Bank's June forecast. Growth is expected to rise to 4.1 per cent in 2026.
“The outlook for this year has deteriorated since June, primarily due to extended oil production cuts by major oil partners,” the World Bank said in its updated Global Economic Prospects report.
Eight oil-producing nations, including Saudi Arabia, announced in December they had agreed to extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until March. The group said after that date, the supply curbs will be phased out each month through to the end of September 2026.
The World Bank had expected Opec+ to lift the production cuts by the end of last year.
Growth in countries belonging to the GCC grew by 1.6 per cent last year due to strong labour markets and a recovery of capital inflows supporting strong non-oil activity.
The World Bank also lowered its growth outlook for the GCC this year by 1.4 percentage points to 3.3 per cent because of the extension of the production cuts. Growth is forecast to increase to 4.6 per cent next year.
Among oil exporters, the UAE's economy also faces a slight downgrade. The World Bank projects the UAE's economy to increase by 4.0 per cent this year (0.1 per cent lower than its June projection) after growing 3.3 per cent last year. Growth in Saudi Arabia is estimated to be 3.4 per cent this year, 2.5 per cent below the World Bank's previous forecast.
Growth for oil importers is projected to reach 3.7 per cent this year before rising to 4 per cent next year due to stronger domestic demand amid easing inflation. Egypt's economy is projected to grow to 3.5 per cent in the 2024-25 fiscal year before expanding further to 4.2 per cent the following year due to stronger private consumption as inflation continues to ease.
The World Bank also anticipates financing from the UAE will help secure investment in Egypt.
Oman and Qatar's growth forecasts were also lowered by 0.4 and 0.5 per cent. The World Bank now expects Oman's economy to grow by 2.4 per cent this year, while activity in Qatar is set to increase by 2.7 per cent.
Projections for Iraq, Kuwait and Tunisia were lowered to 3.5, 1.7 and 2.2 per cent. Forecasts for Bahrain and Jordan were unchanged at 3.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent, while Morocco's growth forecasts were upgraded by two percentage points to 3.9 per cent.
The World Bank did not produce forecasts for Lebanon, Syria and Yemen due to a “high degree of uncertainty”.
The bank said risks for the region remain tilted to the downside due to regional conflicts and policy uncertainty, pointing to so-called unexpected global policy shifts. Further protectionist policies by trading partners could also reduce exports for oil importers.
Developing countries face 'tougher slog'
In its report, the World Bank anticipates global growth to increase by 2.7 per cent this year and in 2026, the same pace as last year, as inflation continues to moderate.
However, it warned that developing nations will have a more challenging time in reaching the income levels of advanced economies. Developing economies are expected to end the first quarter of this century with the weakest long-term growth outlook since 2000, the World Bank said.
“The next 25 years will be a tougher slog for developing economies than the last 25,” Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice president for development economics, said.
The World Bank said many factors that helped these economies grow at a faster rate decades ago – such as economic integration and foreign direct investment inflows – have faded.
“In their place have come daunting headwinds: high debt burdens, weak investment and productivity growth, and the rising costs of climate change,” Mr Gill said.
Global policy uncertainty and rising trade tension also pose serious challenges for developing economies, while inflation could prolong interest rate cuts, the World Bank said.
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11 cabbie-recommended restaurants and dishes to try in Abu Dhabi
Iqbal Restaurant behind Wendy’s on Hamdan Street for the chicken karahi (Dh14)
Pathemari in Navy Gate for prawn biryani (from Dh12 to Dh35)
Abu Al Nasar near Abu Dhabi Mall, for biryani (from Dh12 to Dh20)
Bonna Annee at Navy Gate for Ethiopian food (the Bonna Annee special costs Dh42 and comes with a mix of six house stews – key wet, minchet abesh, kekel, meser be sega, tibs fir fir and shiro).
Al Habasha in Tanker Mai for Ethiopian food (tibs, a hearty stew with meat, is a popular dish; here it costs Dh36.75 for lamb and beef versions)
Himalayan Restaurant in Mussaffa for Nepalese (the momos and chowmein noodles are best-selling items, and go for between Dh14 and Dh20)
Makalu in Mussaffa for Nepalese (get the chicken curry or chicken fry for Dh11)
Al Shaheen Cafeteria near Guardian Towers for a quick morning bite, especially the egg sandwich in paratha (Dh3.50)
Pinky Food Restaurant in Tanker Mai for tilapia
Tasty Zone for Nepalese-style noodles (Dh15)
Ibrahimi for Pakistani food (a quarter chicken tikka with roti costs Dh16)
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What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support