The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates is committed to supporting the country's continued economic recovery and said the withdrawal of support measures put in place to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic will be gradual and well timed.
In a statement on Thursday, the CBUAE said it had assessed the UAE’s financial system as stable and that liquidity in the banking system and banks’ capital buffers were adequate.
After a meeting on September 21 with chief executives of selected national and foreign banks operating in the UAE, which was attended by Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair, the chairman of the UAE Banks Federation, CBUAE governor Khaled Balama said the central bank will continue to closely supervise banks’ asset quality and the adequacy of provisioning.
The regulator said in view of the gradual increase in economic activity, it will start a "gradual and well-calibrated withdrawal" of its targeted economic support scheme (Tess) to avoid restricting credit supply and economic growth".
The UAE introduced economic stimulus worth Dh388 billion ($105.72bn) since the pandemic tipped the world economy into its worst recession since the 1930s. These packages include Dh50bn under the central bank's Tess programme to boost liquidity in the financial and banking sector, parts of which have been extended to June 2022.
The central bank said bank chief executives agreed that the Tess programme had been effective and met its objective of cushioning the effects of the pandemic on the UAE’s economy. Fifteen per cent of the UAE banks’ loan portfolios had benefited from the Tess deferral programme, it said.
The UAE economy, which contracted 6.1 per cent in 2020 on the back of the global economic slowdown, has bounced back strongly, boosted by fiscal support and other measures from the government.
The UAE economy is now forecast to grow 2.1 per cent this year, driven by pandemic-mitigation measures that boosted recovery from the coronavirus-driven slowdown, according to the CBUAE's second quarter review. The Arab world’s second-largest economy is expected to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2022, higher than the 3.8 per cent previously forecast.
"Our assessment, confirmed by recent economic data, affirms the UAE economy’s gradual recovery," Mr Balama said in the statement on Thursday.
"As we enter the next phase of the post-Covid recovery, there will be less need for extraordinary relief measures. We expect that banks will do their part in supporting our economic recovery and ensure the continued flow of funds to creditworthy retail and corporate borrowers.”
On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the central bank, whose monetary policy is mirrored by most countries in the GCC, could begin scaling back asset purchases as soon as November and also indicated the Fed would aim to finish its bond buying by the middle of 2022. Since July 2021, the Fed was buying $80bn of Treasury securities and $40bn of agency mortgage-backed securities each month.
In the short term, the CBUAE said it will leave unchanged the temporarily lowered reserve requirements for banks, and the level of the loan-to-value ratio applicable to mortgage loans for first-time home buyers.
The CBUAE had already said the loan deferral component of the Tess programme will expire by the end of 2021, but its zero-cost lending facility may be used to grant new loans until mid-2022.
Regulatory relief measures that allowed banks to maintain lower capital and liquidity buffers will expire by the end of 2021, as previously communicated by the CBUAE.
The central bank said it is closely monitoring the economic recovery in parallel with loan demand and may extend these measures for a limited period to "facilitate a smooth economic recovery".
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Director: Deon Taylor
Starring: Dennis Quaid, Michael Ealy, Meagan Good
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