President Joe Biden has launched his bid for re-election in 2024, paving the way for a potential second term in office and a continuation of his Middle East foreign policy — which has “fit awkwardly” within his global priorities.
Presidents seeking re-election often win but incumbency is no guarantee, as George HW Bush found in 1992 and Donald Trump learnt in 2020.
Experts argue that four more years under Mr Biden will see continued attempts at US disengagement from the Middle East.
Brian Katulis, senior fellow and vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute, told The National that another Biden term would “continue to produce incentives for countries in the region, as well as other bigger powers like China and Russia, to chart their own course”.
Several US administrations, starting with Barack Obama's, have attempted to pivot Washington's attention from the region and towards Asia.
The Biden White House reiterated that vision in its budget proposal for fiscal year 2024, emphasising “de-escalation” in the Middle East and a continuing focus on countering China.
“America adrift in the Middle East will result in countries in the Middle East that have more resources, those in the Gulf, Israel and others charting their own course, that at times will be in line with the United States and then at times will be in line with the spheres of other countries like Russia and China,” Mr Katulis argued.
The Middle East has “fit awkwardly within Biden’s global priorities”, Natan Sachs, director at Washington's Brookings Institute Centre for Middle East Policy, wrote in an analysis of Mr Biden's first two years in office.
But “the broader Middle East has still commanded considerable time and effort”, he noted, pointing to the Gaza war in the spring of 2021 and, most notably, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy, inflation and food supply shocks it unleashed.
vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute
Mr Biden toured the region last July in a trip that yielded “little in the way of flashy announcements — like new normalisation agreements or Saudi Arabia boosting oil production”, said the US Institute of Peace, arguing the tour instead demonstrated focus “on enhancing the region’s security architecture, particularly to counter Iran”.
Still looming over the administration's posture towards the Gulf is its vague October claim that the White House was giving a “rethink” to its relationship with Saudi Arabia after the Opec+ alliance announced it would slash oil production.
Months out from the claim, National Security Council officials have continuously dodged questions about what that “rethink” means and seem to have dismissed the notion that any major shifts would come.
“The big chill is over with the US-Saudi relationship,” said Mr Katulis.
“I think there will still be more bumps in the road. But hopefully, they build in some such shock absorbers in trying to build the co-operative ties that were expressed in all of those communicators that came out during Biden's visit.”
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US President Joe Biden waves from a plane at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. AFP -
US President Joe Biden boards a plane at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. AFP -
Mr Biden walks to the plane. AFP -
President Sheikh Mohamed in discussion with Mr Biden during the Gulf Co-operation Council GCC+3 Jeddah Security and Development Summit. Photo: Abdulla Al Neyadi for the Presidential Court -
US President Joe Biden attends the Gulf Co-operation Council GCC+3 Jeddah Security and Development Summit at a hotel in the Saudi Arabian Red Sea coastal city. AFP -
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman attends the Gulf Co-operation Council GCC+3 meeting in Jeddah. AFP -
US President Joe Biden and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the GCC+3 Jeddah Security and Development Summit. AFP -
President Sheikh Mohamed attended a traditional summit 'family photo call' in the company of, from left: Asaad bin Tariq Al Said, Omani Deputy Prime Minister for International Relations and Co-operation Affairs and the Special Representative of the Sultan; Sheikh Mohamed; Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi; Bahrain's King Hamad bin Isa bin Salman Al Khalifa; US President Joe Biden; Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman; Jordan's King Abdullah II; Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani; Kuwait's Crown Prince Mishal Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, and Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi. AFP -
President Sheikh Mohamed is received by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon his arrival at King Abdulaziz International Airport. Photo: Abdulla Al Neyadi for the Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed is received by Saudi Arabia's Prince Mohamed bin Salman upon his arrival at King Abdulaziz International Airport. Photo: Abdulla Al Neyadi for the Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed greets Sheikh Mishal Al Sabah, Crown Prince of Kuwait, during the GCC+3 Jeddah Security and Development Summit. Photo: Rashed Al Mansoori / Presidential Court -
US President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and other officials during a bilateral meeting at a hotel in Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah before the GCC+3 meeting. AFP -
US President Joe Biden meets Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi, in Jeddah before the beginning of the GCC+3 meeting. Reuters -
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives Sheikh Mishal Al Sabah, Crown Prince of Kuwait, before the GCC + 3 Jeddah Security and Development Summit on Saturday. SPA -
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El Sisi arrive for the Jeddah summit. SPA -
US President Joe Biden participates in a working session with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Al Salam Palace in Jeddah. AP -
US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a bilateral meeting with Saudi officials led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at Al Salam Palace. Reuters -
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman takes part in a working session with US President Joe Biden and his team. AFP -
Saudi Arabia's King Salman greets US President Joe Biden at Al Salam Palace in Jeddah. Photo: @spagov -
King Salman and US President Joe Biden in discussions at Al Salam Palace in Jeddah. Photo: @spagov -
US President Joe Biden meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah. Photo: @spagov -
US President Joe Biden arrives at King Abdulaziz International Airport in Jeddah. Photo: @spagov -
US President Joe Biden is welcomed by Saudi Arabian officials. AFP -
Mr Biden disembarks from Air Force One at King Abdulaziz International Airport, following a flight from Tel Aviv. AFP -
US Presidents Joe Biden salutes as he boards Air Force One at Ben Gurion International Airport in Lod, near Tel Aviv en route to a meeting with the GCC+3 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Reuters -
Israel's President Isaac Herzog, second right, and caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, centre, bid farewell to US President Joe Biden at Ben Gurion Airport. AFP -
US President Joe Biden meets clergy at the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem, in the occupied West Bank. Reuters -
US President Joe Biden is introduced to local people at the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem. Reuters -
US President Joe Biden arrives at the Church of Nativity in Bethlehem, on the second full day of his Middle East visit. AFP -
US President Joe Biden and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas address the media after their meeting at the Muqataa Presidential Compound in Bethlehem, the occupied West Bank. AFP -
A photo of journalist Shireen Abu Akleh is placed on a chair as reporters wait for US President Joe Biden and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to speak. She was killed in a raid by Israeli forces in May. The caption reads: 'Shireen Abu Akleh, voice of Palestine'. AP -
US President Joe Biden with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at a welcome ceremony at the Palestinian Muqataa Presidential Compound in Bethlehem, in the occupied West Bank. AFP -
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas welcomes US President Joe Biden to the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Reuters -
A Palestinian security officer stands guard near the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank before US President Joe Biden’s official visit. AFP -
Palestinian and Israeli human rights campaigners lift banners during a rally near Augusta Victoria Hospital in East Jerusalem as US President Joe Binden visits. AFP -
US President Joe Biden greets fans as he attends the opening ceremony of the Maccabiah Games at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem. AFP -
US President Joe Biden poses for a picture with US athletes competing in the Maccabiah Games. AFP -
People use the lights of their phones during the opening ceremony of the Maccabiah Games in Jerusalem, attended by US President Joe Biden. Reuters -
US athletes attend the opening ceremony of the Maccabiah Games in Jerusalem. AFP -
The Maccabiah Games coincided with the US President Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East. AFP -
US President Joe Biden, centre, Israel's caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, right, and President Isaac Herzog attend the opening ceremony for the Maccabiah Games in Jerusalem. Reuters -
A Palestinian protester carries a placard during a demonstration in the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah as US President Joe Biden visited Israel. AFP -
In Gaza City, Palestinian demonstrators wave their national flag as they gather to protest against the visit by US President Joe Biden to Israel. AFP -
A billboard, part of a campaign organised by the Centre for Human Rights B'Tselem, installed before US President Joe Biden's arrival for an official visit in the West Bank city of Bethlehem. PA -
US President Joe Biden receives the Israeli Presidential Medal of Honour from Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Jerusalem. AP Photo -
US President Joe Biden, centre left, and President Isaac Herzog with children after Mr Biden's arrival at the presidential residence in Jerusalem. AFP -
US President Joe Biden signs the guest book in the presence of President Isaac Herzog on arriving at the presidential residence in Jerusalem. AFP -
US President Joe Biden with President Isaac Herzog and Mrs Michal Herzog in Jerusalem. AFP -
US and Saudi Arabian flags in a square in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, before US President Joe Biden's visit. AP -
US President Joe Biden and caretaker Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid at a press conference at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel in Jerusalem. EPA -
President Sheikh Mohamed delivers the opening speech during the I2U2 summit, a meeting between the leaders of the UAE, India, Israel and the US. Seen with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation. Photo: Presidential Court -
President Sheikh Mohamed speaks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid during the I2U2 summit. Photo: Presidential Court -
US President Joe Biden and caretaker Iraeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid address a joint press conference. AFP -
US President Joe Biden and Israeli caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid during their meeting at a hotel in Jerusalem. AFP -
US President Joe Biden speaks to Holocaust survivors Dr Gita Cycowicz and Rena Quint in the Hall of Remembrance, at Yad Vashem in Jerusalem. AP -
US President Joe Biden participates in a wreath-laying ceremony in the Hall of Remembrance at Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Centre in Jerusalem. AP -
Israel's President Isaac Herzog speaks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US President Joe Biden during their visit to Hall of Remembrance at Yad Vashem Holocaust Remembrance Centre in Jerusalem. Reuters -
Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, left, US President Joe Biden, second left, caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, right, and Brig Gen Shawn Harris, defence attache to the US embassy, in front of Israel's Iron Dome defence system during a tour at Ben Gurion Airport. AP -
US President Joe Biden waves as he leaves Israel's Ben Gurion Airport on his way to Jerusalem. EPA -
US President Joe Biden, centre, stands for the national anthems alongside Secretary of State Antony Blinken, second left, Israel's President Herzog, third left, caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, third right, and departing prime minister Naftali Bennett, second right, at Ben Gurion Airport. AFP -
Caretaker Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid and President Isaac Herzog welcome US President Joe Biden to Israel as his trip begins. Reuters
Russia-Ukraine war
Much of Mr Biden's foreign policy attention is focused on Ukraine, where he has championed Nato efforts to keep the besieged country afloat and competitive against the invading Russian forces.
The conflict has affected many countries in the Middle East, including Lebanon and Egypt, which have both struggled over the past year due to skyrocketing food prices.
Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian and author of The Cabinet: George Washington and the Creation of an American Institution, said the war is the dominant foreign policy story of the time and that Mr Biden's handling of the crisis has helped strengthen US and Nato resolve.
“The stronger Biden can present the United States on this issue [the war in Ukraine], and the stronger he can present the Nato alliance on this issue, it will have repercussions for things like China and Taiwan,” she explained.
Mr Biden has demonstrated deft diplomacy by working quietly behind closed doors to help build support for Ukraine, Ms Chervinsky argued.
Biden v Trump
One area in which Mr Biden has built on the legacy of his predecessor Mr Trump has been deepening Arab-Israeli relations through the Abraham Accords.
But the two men diverge sharply when it comes to Palestinian-Israeli issues.
Whereas Mr Trump is a staunch supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his hardline approach to the conflict with the Palestinians, Mr Biden has a more nuanced stance and supports a two-state solution.
Nimrod Goren, senior fellow for Israeli Affairs at the Middle East Institute, said Mr Biden would continue to voice support for two-state solution interventions at a time of escalation, as well as messaging red lines over what Americans expect Israel not to do.
“You may also see an increase in support for civil society, Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, people-to-people projects,” he added.
“Hopefully, there will also be Biden support for safeguarding Israeli democracy, if the domestic challenges that we are facing now, continue.”
On Yemen, the Biden administration's decision to appoint Tim Lenderking as special envoy marked a “doubling down” in getting the US more engaged on diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the conflict.
But should Mr Biden lose in 2024, depending on “what type of Republican” takes his place, outcomes may not be all that different, argued Mr Katulis.
“There seems to be a trajectory here,” he said.
“The US is sort of negotiating somewhat of a long goodbye with the region, and the region smells it and feels it. And that's why you see them stepping up to take care of matters in their own hands.”
