What do midterm election results 2022 mean for Biden and Democratic Party?

The Republican 'red wave' was more like a ripple as scepticism of Donald Trump's ability to lead the party mounts

Supporters of Democratic Senate candidate for Pennsylvania John Fetterman cheer after he defeated the Republicans' Mehmet Oz. EPA

Follow the latest news on the US midterm elections 2022

Even as the Republican Party appeared on track to take control of the US House of Representatives, many Democrats on Wednesday were breathing a sigh of relief after Tuesday's midterm elections.

Republicans, who had spent weeks attacking President Joe Biden for his low approval ratings, historic inflation and an uncertain economy, had promised their party would enjoy a "red wave" or a "bloodbath".

The party in opposition usually makes big gains in the midterms and many commentators and pollsters made similar predictions this time.

But American voters confounded expectations, shunning candidates backed by former president Donald Trump, whose endorsement frequently turned into more of a hindrance than a help.

Among the bigger losses was in Pennsylvania's Senate race, where Trump-backed Mehmet Oz was defeated by Democrat John Fetterman.

Craig Varoga, a veteran Democratic public affairs and campaign consultant, said the Democrats might have had avoided a drubbing largely thanks to Mr Trump.

If he "had managed to stay out of the 2022 elections, and not hand-pick unqualified candidates in Senate primaries, not campaigned around the country, Republicans probably would be doing a victory lap this morning rather than looking in the mirror and seeing Donald Trump," Mr Varoga told The National.

The election underscored that Mr Trump and his far-right nationalist movement's grip on the Republican Party is not something most Americans support.

"There are still swing-voters, they're not extremists," Mr Varoga said.

"They don't want election deniers in office. They also don't want left-wing Democrats who don't address crime and inflation."

Melissa Brown, a board member of Republican Women for Progress, told The National that her party needed a leader "who doesn't have as much baggage associated with him and who can effectively govern and win re-election".

John Fetterman arrives to speak during his 2022 midterm elections night party in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Reuters

But with Republicans poised to take control of the House, Mr Biden will face serious legislative hurdles and come under intense scrutiny that he has thus far avoided.

The fate of the Senate hangs in the balance, and may not be decided until a Georgia run-off election in December.

Democratic pollster Brad Bannon said the Republicans would waste no time picking fights with Mr Biden before the 2024 presidential campaign.

It is going to be very difficult for "Joe Biden to move an agenda forward with divided control … he could barely move his agenda with control of both houses," Mr Bannon said.

In the months leading up to Tuesday's elections, Democrats delivered a string of legislative victories, including the climate and healthcare-focused Inflation Reduction Act and a tech-funding bill aimed at increasing US competitiveness with China.

Those victories were largely drowned out by "kitchen table" issues for Americans, though, with soaring inflation and interest rates rises hitting the economy hard.

But Mr Bannon also said that a divided or completely Republican-led Congress gives Democrats a "scapegoat" in the run-up to 2024 presidential elections.

The president can now say, "I proposed X, Y and Z, and the Republican House rejected all my attempts to move this nation forward", Mr Bannon said.

Mr Varoga said that fact did not outweigh the wider implications of increased Republican control. He predicted they would try to impeach Mr Biden.

"They don't know on what basis yet, because all they're trying to do is to even the score about the fact that Donald Trump was impeached twice," Mr Varoga said.

Despite the Republican Party's worse-than-expected performance, more than 200 Republicans who had echoed Mr Trump's baseless claims of fraud in the 2020 elections won statewide or national office.

"Structural problems that we have are intact, the polarisation is intact," Mr Varoga said.

Ms Brown said she hoped Republicans would focus on policy issues instead of political noise about impeachment and election denial.

"I hope the Republicans would focus mainly on the economy and curbing inflation, pushing for more of taking advantage of America's energy resources, drilling here to lower gas prices," she said.

"Divided government will force some Democrats to meet Republicans in the middle and focus on just the issues that are impacting everyday Americans."

As Mr Biden said on Wednesday, the Republican "Super-Mega-Maga" wing of the party is in the minority. Maga, or Make America Great Again, is the shorthand for Trump Republicans.

US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a Democrat rally in Washington, as President Joe Biden and their spouses Jill Biden and Doug Emhoff listen. Bloomberg

Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, speaks at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Former astronaut and Democratic candidate Mark Kelly defeated his Republican rival in Arizona's senate race. Reuters

Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer, left, opens mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Ballots were being counted in Maricopa County three days after voters went to the polls for the midterm election in Arizona. AFP

Election workers open mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. AFP

Staff scan ballots for the US midterm elections at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. Reuters

Election workers open mail-in ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre in Phoenix, Arizona. AFP

In a divided America, a political campaign sign sits abandoned at the roadside in Phoenix, Arizona, two days after the midterms. AFP

Ballots are processed in Las Vegas. Getty Images

Election officials give a press conference in Maricopa County, Arizona, where ballots were still being counted two days after the midterms. AFP

Ballots are carried to be scanned in Philadelphia. Reuters

Mr Biden was all smiles during a news conference in the White House. Bloomberg

An election worker sorts ballots in Las Vegas. AFP

Election workers sort ballots at the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Centre. AFP

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger holds a news conference in Atlanta. AP

Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso gets a hug on stage at his election night headquarters in Los Angeles. AP

Paul Riley, father of Josh Riley, bows his head as election results come in at his son's election party in Binghamton, New York. Josh Riley, the Democratic candidate, ran against Republican Marc Molinaro. AP

Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer speaks during election night in Detroit. AP

Supporters cheer during an election night event for Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Mr Fetterman defeated Republican Senate candidate Dr Mehmet Oz. AFP

Supporters watch news of a projected victory for Democratic candidate for Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Reuters

Republican J D Vance arrives with his wife Usha to declare victory in the Senatorial race in Columbus, Ohio. Reuters

New York Governor Kathy Hochul attends an event to celebrate her victory in the US midterm elections. Reuters

Representative Abigail Spanberger, of the Democratic party, speaks to supporters after her re-election, in Fredericksburg, Virginia. AP

Democrat Wes Moore, second from left, hugs his daughter, Mia, centre, as his mother, Joy Thomas Moore, left, son, Jamie, second from right, and wife, Dawn, look on, after he was declared the winner of the Maryland race for governor. AP

A supporter of Republican candidate Lee Zeldin reacts as media outlets predict results, in the race for governor, in favour of Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul. AP

Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt celebrates his re-election, at a Republican Party watch party in Oklahoma City. AP

Democratic candidate for governor of Georgia Stacey Abrams speaks during her 2022 US midterm elections night party in Atlanta, Georgia. Her rival Brian Kemp won. Reuters

A woman arrives before Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during an election night party in Tampa. AP

Voters wait in line at a polling station at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs in Austin, Texas. AP

A voter goes to cast their vote after filling out their ballot at a polling station inside The Shed arts centre in Manhattan. AP

A jogger runs past the Capitol Building in Washington. The US midterm elections are held every four years at the midpoint of each presidential term. EPA

Florida's Republican Governor Ron DeSantis waves from the stage next to his wife Casey and children during his midterm elections party in Tampa. Reuters

A man in costume arrives for a Republican party 'Save America' rally before the US midterm elections, in Miami, Florida. AFP

US President Joe Biden, centre, poses for a selfie with supporters during a rally for Democratic candidates, including New York Governor Kathy Hochul, at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. AFP

A man marks his ballot during early voting in Lansing, Michigan. Reuters

A child attends a rally held by US President Joe Biden with Democratic nominee for Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Senator Chris Van Hollen and other Maryland Democrats, at Bowie State University. Reuters

Supporters cheer during a rally for Democratic candidates at Sarah Lawrence College in Bronxville, New York. AFP

State Representative Leslie Rossi poses by a giant cutout of former US President Donald Trump in front of the "Trump House", which she owns and created in 2016, in Youngstown, Pennsylvania. AFP

Republican candidate for US Senate for Arizona Blake Masters speaks at a rally in Queen Creek, Arizona. EPA

People in the crowd cheer during a campaign rally at Bowie State University in Maryland, which was attended President Joe Biden, the first lady, Jill Biden, Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and Senator Chris Van Hollen. AP

Republican candidate for Arizona governor Kari Lake arrives for a campaign stop, in Phoenix. Reuters

Morgan Koetje and Nickolas Lentz from Reproductive Freedom for All, canvass a neighborhood in support of Proposal 3, a ballot measure that would codify the right to an abortion, one day before the midterm election in Dewitt, Michigan. Reuters

Republican candidate for US Senate Herschel Walker takes a picture with supporters in Kennesaw, Georgia during a "Unite Georgia Bus Stop" campaign rally on the eve of the midterm elections. AFP

Republican Senate candidate Val Demings speaks to supporters in Wilton Manors, Florida. AP

Senate hopeful Mehmet Oz addresses campaign rally in Pennsburg, Pennsylvania. AP

Former president Donald Trump speaks at a rally in support of the campaign of Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance, at Dayton International Airport. AP

President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrive for the rally at Bowie State University, in Maryland. AP

Voters pass by a sign outside a polling site in Warwick, Rhode Island after casting their ballots on the last day of early voting before the midterm election. AP

Democratic candidate for Georgia governor Stacey Abrams speaks to volunteers during an election eve phone and text bank party in Atlanta. AP

US Vice President Kamala Harris, left, points to Los Angeles mayoral candidate Representative Karen Bass, after speaking at a rally in Los Angeles. AP

Polling problems?

The unexpected midterm results have raised questions about polling predictions.

Mr Bannon said the power of the pro-choice vote after the Supreme Court overturning federal abortion rights earlier in the year was deeply underestimated.

"Most of the polls that I saw before the election showed that the concern about inflation was overwhelming the concern about abortion. And that turned out not to be true," Mr Bannon said.

He quoted exit polls that showed that 37 per cent of voters considered inflation to be their top priority in the election, compared to 32 per cent saying abortion was their main issue of concern.

But for Mr Varoga, there is a bigger picture unfolding in American politics.

"You cannot argue that we live in unconventional times and then rely on conventional wisdom and conventional polling tactics to predict what's going to happen in the election," he said.

"I think what we saw in the last 24 hours is that voters in their own way better understand than the elected officials, and the pundits, and much of the media coverage, that these are unconventional times, and they're willing to give split decisions because they don't have confidence in either party."