Penny Mordaunt’s departure from the Conservative leadership race will significantly lessen the chances of the party holding on to power at the next election, Tory insiders have said.
The former trade minister had the most popular appeal among both Tory membership and the wider population of the last three candidates standing.
Instead Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss will make their case to members over the next six weeks — and then to the British public when one of them is announced as prime minister on September 5.
In a last-minute bid to stay in the race, Ms Mordaunt’s team sent a message to all MPs that showed a poll putting her ahead of the remaining pair in being able to win the next general election, but it failed to convince.
At precisely 4pm, Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee that oversees Conservative affairs, walked into the cavernous Committee Room 14, where all results from the five previous ballots have been announced.
In a room packed with Conservative MPs, he read the outcome in alphabetical order, announcing Ms Truss’s 113 votes last. She beat Ms Mordaunt by eight votes. Immediately there were expletives from a number of Tories. One muttered: “This is perfect for Labour,” and a Ms Mordaunt supporter stated that “the only winner of Rishi versus Liz is Labour”.
Mr Sunak, who won 137 votes, does have a Yorkshire constituency but his vast personal wealth, along with his immensely rich India-born wife, is unlikely to convince Red Wall voters in northern England.
Being Boris Johnson’s chancellor will also provide the opposition with significant ammunition, as will the Conservative leadership debates that ended in unedifying mud-slinging between candidates.
Ms Truss is keen on steep tax cuts at a time of high inflation, with questions over her ability to steer the economy out of the mire caused by the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis.
She is also not a natural orator — as her rather wooden debate performances demonstrated — and is likely to be easily outshone by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer during Prime Minister’s Questions.
“If the party was thinking straight, they would have put Penny Mordaunt on the last two,” said one political observer. “She was the only one that was a clean break from the Boris regime who would have nationwide electoral appeal. She was the high-risk, high-reward candidate.”
It is understood that Mr Johnson’s favoured choice for successor is the Foreign Secretary Ms Truss and early in the campaign she was overshadowed by Ms Mordaunt’s sudden surge in the polls.
But Ms Mordaunt’s campaign was then hamstrung by a series of high-level leaks to Conservative-supporting newspapers that attacked her on transgender rights, as well as her time as a Cabinet minister.
On the leadership trail - in pictures
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Candidates Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings at Wembley Arena, London. This was the final hustings attended by Tory Party members who will vote for the new leader and next prime minister. EPA -
Liz Truss addresses Conservative Party members at Wembley Arena. AP -
Mr Sunak puts forward his case to be leader while speaking at Wembley Arena. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak visits his family's old business, Bassett Pharmacy in Southampton, while on the campaign trail. Reuters -
Ms Truss speaks to staff at Condimentum Ltd at the Food Enterprise Park in Norwich. Getty Images -
A Rishi Sunak supporter at a hustings event in Norfolk. PA -
Mr Sunak greets people at a leadership hustings in Manchester. Bloomberg -
Ms Truss poses for a selfie with a supporter as she arrives for the event in Manchester. Getty -
Rishi Sunak looks through the sights of an anti-tank missile launcher, supplied to Ukraine, during a visit to the Thales Defence System plant in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Liz Truss at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event in Belfast. Getty -
Liz Truss meets supporters before a hustings in Perth, Scotland. Getty -
Rishi Sunak speaks during a campaign visit to Cluny Castle in Inverurie, Scotland. Getty -
Police hold back protesters outside Perth Concert Hall, Scotland, where Conservative leadership candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak were speaking. PA -
A mural showing the two leadership contestants appears on a wall in Belfast, Northern Ireland. AP -
Rishi Sunak during a visit to St John's Wood Synagogue, north London. PA -
Liz Truss at the Conservative Party leadership election hustings in Cheltenham. EPA -
Rishi Sunak during a hustings event in Cheltenham. Reuters -
Liz Truss speaks to scientists during a campaign visit to a life sciences laboratory at Alderley Park in Manchester. PA -
Rishi Sunak during a campaign hustings in Darlington, England. Bloomberg -
Liz Truss meets party members before she speaks at the Darlington campaign hustings. Getty -
Rishi Sunak arrives for the Darlington hustings. Getty -
Liz Truss plays pool during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak looks at a book with Teddy Openshaw, 4, as his father, Henry, looks on after a Conservative leadership campaign event in Ribble Valley, Lancashire, England. Getty -
Liz Truss plays table tennis with former Conservative party leader Iain Duncan Smith during a visit to the Onside Future Youth Zone in London. Reuters -
Liz Truss with supporters at a campaign event in Solihull, England. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak attends a campaign event held by his party in Bexhill, England. Reuters -
A protester is removed as Ms Truss speaks during the Conservative Party leadership hustings in Eastbourne. Bloomberg -
Mr Sunak speaks at an event in Edinburgh. PA -
Ms Truss leaves the hall in Exeter, south-west England, after her speech to a Conservative Party membership hustings. Getty -
Mr Sunak speaks at the University of Exeter in south-west England. AP -
A supporter of Ms Truss at a Conservative Party hustings in Exeter, south-west England. Getty -
Ms Truss at a hustings event at the Pavilion conference centre at Elland Road in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak in Salisbury watching a screening of the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final between England and Germany at Wembley stadium. England won 2-1 in extra time. PA -
Ms Truss before the Uefa Women's Euro 2022 final at Wembley stadium in London. AFP -
Mr Sunak meets Tory members at Fontwell Park Racecourse. Reuters -
Ms Truss at an event in Dereham, Norfolk. AFP -
Mr Sunak in Ropley, near Winchester, Hampshire. PA -
Ms Truss speaks as Conservative Member of Parliament Tom Tugendhat looks on at a Conservative Party leadership campaign event at Biggin Hill Airport. Getty -
Ms Truss on the campaign trail in Woodford Green, on the outskirts of London. Reuters -
Mr Sunak at a Conservative Party hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at the hustings event in Leeds. AFP -
Sunak and Truss-themed souvenirs at a stand during the Leeds hustings event. Reuters -
Ms Truss, and her mother, Patricia, arrive for the hustings event. Getty -
Ms Truss poses with supporters in Morley, England. Getty -
Mr Sunak delivers a speech during a campaign event in Newmarket. AFP -
Ms Truss and Jake Berry, MP for Rossendale and Darwen, during a visit to a broadband interchange company in Leeds. PA -
Mr Sunak answers questions as he takes part in the hustings in Leeds. AFP -
Ms Truss speaks at an event at a private house with members of the Conservative Party in Woodford Green. PA -
Ms Truss and Mr Sunak pose for a picture before a BBC leadership debate at Victoria Hall in Hanley. Getty -
Ms Truss addresses Mr Sunak during the televised debate. Getty -
Mr Sunak, with daughters Krishna and Anushka, and wife Akshata Murthy, during a visit to Vaculug tyre specialists at Gonerby Hill Foot, Grantham. PA -
Ms Truss speaks to people while campaigning in Marden. Getty -
Ms Truss celebrates after being named, along with Mr Sunak, one of the final two candidates in the race to become the UK's next prime minister. PA -
Mr Sunak outside his campaign office in central London. EPA -
Ms Truss outside Downing Street in London. Reuters -
Rishi Sunak meets Conservative Party members and activists, in Teesport, Redcar. Reuters -
Conservative leadership candidates Mr Sunak, Ms Truss, Kemi Badenoch, presenter Julie Etchingham, Tom Tugendhat and Penny Mordaunt during 'Britain's Next Prime Minister: The ITV Debate' in London. EPA -
Ms Badenoch arrives at Here East studios in Stratford, east London, before a live television debate. PA -
Mr Sunak arrives at a London event to launch his campaign to be the next Conservative Party leader and UK prime minister. Reuters -
Mr Tugendhat appears on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Ms Badenoch, Ms Mordaunt, Mr Sunak, Ms Truss and Mr Tugendhat before the live television debate. PA -
Ms Mordaunt arrives for the launch of her Conservative leadership campaign at the Cinnamon Club in Westminster. PA -
Ms Truss speaks at the launch event for her campaign to become the next leader of the Tory Party and Britain's prime minister, in London. EPA -
Chancellor of the Exchequer Nadhim Zahawi, one of the candidates who has been knocked out of the race, giving a speech at the Churchill War Rooms. PA -
Former leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt appearing on the BBC One current affairs programme, 'Sunday Morning'. PA -
Sajid Javid attending the launch of his campaign to be Conservative Party leader and prime minister, at the Cinnamon Club in London. He has since been knocked out of the contest. PA -
Rehman Chishti is interviewed after announcing his bid to become the next prime minister. Mr Chishti is no longer in the race. Getty -
Mr Tugendhat speaking at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith arrive for the Truss campaign launch event. Getty -
Former leadership candidate Attorney General Suella Braverman at the Churchill War Rooms in central London. PA -
Supporters of Mr Sunak wait for his arrival ahead of the campaign launch. Bloomberg -
Mr Tugendhat makes a speech at the launch of his campaign. PA -
Mr Javid mops his brow while launching his campaign. Getty -
Ms Truss leaves for work after her announcement that she would be running for the leadership of the Conservative Party. Getty
Those leaks are now being investigated by the Cabinet Secretary Sir Simon Case, but that probe was announced after MPs were finishing voting.
Shortly before the vote announcement, a Ms Mordaunt MP supporter sent a text that suggested Ms Truss’ campaign team were behind the personal attacks. “I fear Liz has pushed us out,” he wrote. “The nasty personal attacks cut through.”
Nicola Richards, the MP for West Bromwich East who was backing Ms Mordaunt, said shortly after she had voted: “Penny is the only one who can win us the Red Walls seats. Having seen Penny’s sensible approach in the leadership campaign, that was how she would have governed the country. She has great appeal across the UK."
Michael Fabricant, another Ms Mordaunt supporter, agreed that she had “the best chance of winning the next general election”. He also told The National: “She is very business-like, very conscientious and has real appeal among the electorate."
With Mr Sunak some distance behind Ms Truss in opinion polls of the 160,000 Tory members, he is now expected to make a series of high-level policy announcements. Realistically he has only two weeks in which to make an impression as the first postal ballot papers drop through letterboxes from August 1.
His biggest moment to cut through and make a forceful impression will come when the BBC hosts the first — and possibly only — televised debate between the pair on Monday evening.
