The double blow of Westminster scandals and rising living costs appear set to cost the UK’s ruling Conservatives hundreds of town hall seats in Thursday's local elections as supporters from wealthy heartlands turn their backs on the party’s leaders, polling suggests.
The main opposition Labour Party is on course to become the biggest winner from the anticipated drop in support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives after he was fined for breaching a Covid-19 lockdown to attend a party.
But the Liberal Democrats — traditionally in third place — are also tipped to gain three new councils, including Woking, in the country’s wealthiest county of Surrey, according to new polling this week.
The party is mounting a strong push in the leafy district of neighbouring Elmbridge where it has seized on infighting among the local Conservatives as part of a wider campaign to oust the sitting MP, Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab.
Despite being home to some of Britain’s wealthiest residents, the Conservatives lost control of Elmbridge council in 2016 and it is now run by residents’ groups, independents and the Liberal Democrats.
The pro-European Union Liberal Democrats hope that a successful vote on Thursday will put further pressure on Mr Raab, who only narrowly won his once safe seat of Esher and Walton at the last national elections in 2019. The Lib Dems targeted the seat after Mr Raab backed the Brexit campaign.
The Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said that Mr Johnson’s government was “mired in sleaze” and had run out of steam. “When I speak to people on the doorsteps, the biggest issue is cost of living,” he said.
The party's campaign in Elmbridge has been helped by internal problems among the local Conservative party who have sidelined a number of long-serving councillors in favour of younger candidates.
Alan Kopitko, 64, a councillor for 23 years, claims he was told he was “too old” to stand again for the Conservatives and has promptly given his support to a Liberal Democrat candidate.
In a stinging letter to local residents, Mr Kopitko accused senior Conservatives of “spreading lies and misinformation” in the “relentless pursuit of power at any cost”. The local Conservatives called it a “blatant attempt to smear” the party.
“On the doorstep when I’m out talking to residents, the situation with Boris and Dominic has done lots of harm to Conservatives,” he told The National. “It becomes embarrassing to a point where people say they are not going to vote for them any more. So that’s where we’re at.
“I think they’re out of touch with what people want. The local election issue will come down to national politics as a whole and I think what will happen is Conservatives in Elmbridge will sit on their hands.”
Christine Cross, a Conservative councillor in Elmbridge, said that residents were focused on local concerns and recognised that rising prices were out of their control. “I think a lot of people realise that this is about local issues and is different to the national picture,” she said. “I think the majority of people are sensible about it.”
Another former Conservative councillor, Barry Cheyne, is standing for a residents’ group at Thursday’s election. A number of Surrey councils have seen a surge in non-aligned political parties to campaign on issues such as opposing building in the countryside.
He said that information from campaigning suggested that the Liberal Democrats were doing well in some areas, while residents’ groups were also picking up support because of a broader disillusionment with political parties.
“There’s a move away from the Conservative Party, I’d say that’s fairly national,” he said. “People have lost trust in the party. They are finding that the cost of living is going up and there’s not an awful lot being done about it. People are genuinely worried about their futures.”
One in three houses in Elmbridge is valued at more than £1 million ($1.25m), according to research by estate agency Savills. Mr Cheyne said this led to a false assumption that the council was run by the Conservatives, traditionally the party of wealthier Britons.
But he said the vote was likely to be significant to determining the future course of the Conservative Party with the next national elections to be held no later than January 2025. Mr Raab co-signed a letter to Conservative supporters calling for funds in March, amid worries about the Liberal Democrats' strong charge.
Their “aim is to take control of Esher and Walton from the bottom up,” he wrote in the letter with the local Conservative chairman. “These [local] elections are vital.”
Some analysts say that a bad local election for Mr Johnson could lead to further questions about his leadership.
Chris Holbrook, chief executive of Pollsters Find Out Now, whose study this week predicted a big loss of Conservative council seats, said: “It might have other Tories jostling for position to replace him, even more than some in the media suggest they are already.
“The Tories will try to argue that this is a blip driven by 'Partygate'. Labour will argue it is a true shift in opinion due to scandals and the cost of living crisis.”
