UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s grasp on power appears weaker by the day as allegations of illegal gatherings during England’s first coronavirus lockdown continue to undermine his authority.
The latest news reports suggest a birthday party with up to 30 guests was held in his honour in June 2020.
Public anger in Britain over the so-called “Partygate” has not abated, and Mr Johnson’s chances of emerging from the crisis as leader remain slim.
So what will the endgame look like, and what in which scenarios, if any, could the prime minister survive?
Sue Gray report could find damning evidence
Sue Gray, the senior civil servant leading the Cabinet Office inquiry into Partygate, is looking into several rule-breaking gatherings, including boozy leaving bashes and garden parties in May 2020 said to have been held at the height of England’s first lockdown.
The Prime Minister is said to have “shared what he knows” with Ms Gray but has denied any wrongdoing, and said he “implicitly” believed the gatherings were “work events”.
It was initially believed Ms Gray would need to wait for the outcome of a police investigation before making her findings public, delaying their release by weeks or months.
But Scotland Yard has said it will not block Partygate report’s early publication, plunging Mr Johnson into deeper jeopardy.
Police investigation could result in criminal charges
On Tuesday, London’s Metropolitan Police confirmed they had launched a criminal investigation into lockdown breaches in Number 10, after weeks of refusing to do so.
They were forced to act after Ms Gray’s team handed details of its internal inquiry to the force – no doubt a troubling sign for the prime minister's team.
Met Police chief Dame Cressida Dick has declined to say which allegations were being investigated and would not put a timeline on when officers’ findings would be made public.
The Prime Minister has told MPs it is “right” for officers to investigate and that he believes it will “help to draw a line under matters”.
If evidence of significant rule-breaking at Downing Street is uncovered and charges are brought, it seems highly likely that the prime minister’s position will become untenable.
Tory Party’s 1922 Committee forces his resignation
The Conservatives are no stranger to turning on their own and biggest threat to the Prime Minister’s leadership remains his own MPs.
The 1922 Committee, the Conservatives’ group in the House of Commons – has the ability to trigger a leadership vote if 15 per cent of MPs say they have lost faith in Mr Johnson.
It effectively removed Theresa May after Brexit negotiations caused her authority to ebb away.
As it stands, 54 Tory Party MPs must hand in no confidence letters voicing their dissatisfaction at Mr Johnson’s job to trigger such an election.
If he falls foul of the vote, the Prime Minister could be compelled to step down as prime minister as a new leadership vote is launched.
Boris Johnson resigns on his own accord
Calls for the Prime Minister to quit are already growing. Last week, former Tory Party chairman David Davis said that Mr Johnson should "in the name of God, go".
Mr Johnson may be feeling that he has no choice but to resign before the investigations into his conduct reach their conclusion.
But he is known for his pugilistic streak and is considered unlikely to jump before he is pushed.
Boris Johnson stays on
Mr Johnson’s only real hope is that he is cleared of wrong doing which will see public anger subside. Other geopolitical events, such as a Russian invasion of Ukraine, would also help him stay in office as the nation’s attention turns to pressing security matters.
The next UK election is due to take place in May 2024, thought the date is subject to change.
But with his party’s and his popularity languishing in the polls, it seems unlikely he will be able to cling on without an astounding turnaround in fortunes.
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'Tell the Machine Goodnight' by Katie Williams
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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What is a robo-adviser?
Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.
These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.
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