The defusing of a major political crisis in Lebanon this week after Hezbollah paused a bellicose campaign against its main domestic critic offered a rare glimpse of Iran’s capacity to back down when an escalation comes to the verge of an outcome beyond its control.
Although the rough school of Lebanese politics is in different league to the US-Iran tensions, Beirut is an interlinking piece in a geopolitical chain comprised of Iranian-backed militia proxies. Their tactics often reflect strategic moves of their backers in Tehran.
In this case Iran appears to have blinked. Its rivals united and held their ground against Hezbollah pressure, which kept mounting to the point of possibly putting off western donors crucial for any economic recovery.
At the centre of the crisis has been Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. His backstage stewardship has been crucial to the survival of Lebanon’s small but established Druze community and to the perseverance of a western-backed anti-Hezbollah bloc hit by the rising regional power of Iranian proxies.
In Paris last year, mostly western donors pledged $11 billion (Dh40.4bn) for an economic rescue package but demanded fundamental reforms first. As yet Lebanon has mostly not delivered, partly a reflection of the contradictions in a political system dominated by Hezbollah as the only armed, non-state actor.
The crisis jeopardised the prospects of this cash infusion, raising fears of an economic collapse and a run on what many consider an overvalued Lebanese pound reeling under public debt that stands at one-and-half times the gross domestic product.
In this doomsday scenario, which could prompt sectarian tensions breaking into the open, among the worst hit financially would be Tehran’s Shiite constituency in Lebanon, which doubles as Hezbollah’s core recruitment base.
For decades Hezbollah had played on what it terms the marginalisation and lack of economic opportunity for Shiites, who comprise an estimated 28 per cent of Lebanon’s estimated 6 million population.
Hezbollah and its allies have tried to bring down Mr Jumblatt for two years, cutting him out of the backroom political deals that are the hallmark of Lebanon’s divided, and sectarian, polity.
When that failed, pro-Hezbollah Druze factions initiated what amounted to armed incursions in the Chouf Mountains, the heartland of the Druze, in an apparent bid to stoke violence within the community.
In one such move last year a Jumblatt supporter was killed. In the latest, on June 30 two bodyguards of a pro-Hezbollah junior Druze minister were killed and two Jumblatt supporters were wounded. The shoot-out became known as the Basateen incident.
In a rare, fairly co-ordinated defensive move, two of Lebanon’s main political figures, one Sunni and one Christian, decided after significant hesitation to support Mr Jumblatt, restoring some unity to the anti-Hezbollah bloc, which had mostly fizzled out after Hezbollah took over parts of Beirut by force in 2008.
When Hezbollah allies said the Basateen shooting was an assassination attempt on the junior minister, suggested that Mr Jumblatt was culpable and that the case should go to a special tribunal seen as under their sway, Prime Minister Saad Hariri made sure that the issue would not come up on his government’s agenda. This meant a freeze on cabinet meetings, sending more shivers through the financial markets.
Hezbollah’s main Christian allies are President Michel Aoun and his son-in law Gebran Bassil, the foreign minister who was supposed to have been in the area of the shooting June 30 but did not go. Some of Mr Aoun’s supporters, and apparently the president himself, suggested Mr Bassil was the real target of the alleged assassination attempt.
In a further boost to Mr Jumblatt, Christian leader Samir Geagea said Hezbollah and Mr Bassil were using tactics reminiscent of the 1975-1990 civil war and direct Syrian regime tutelage seen till 2005.
Mr Geagea leads the Lebanese Forces, a former militia turned political party that has four members in the 30-member cabinet, which convened on Saturday after Mr Jumblatt, Mr Hariri, Mr Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri held what was billed as a reconciliation meeting.
The Basateen case has now been put on the back burner, having been handed over to a military tribunal divided along pro and anti-Hezbollah lines.
Hezbollah retreated only when the damage to its own interests outweighed the benefits from its violent tactics, suggesting its Tehran backers read situations rationally when the costs become too high.
Analysis
Members of Syria's Alawite minority community face threat in their heartland after one of the deadliest days in country’s recent history. Read more
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Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
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How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now
Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.
The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.
1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):
a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33
b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.
2. For those who have worked more than five years
c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.
Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.
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The years Ramadan fell in May
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Need to know
The flights: Flydubai flies from Dubai to Kilimanjaro airport via Dar es Salaam from Dh1,619 return including taxes. The trip takes 8 hours.
The trek: Make sure that whatever tour company you select to climb Kilimanjaro, that it is a reputable one. The way to climb successfully would be with experienced guides and porters, from a company committed to quality, safety and an ethical approach to the mountain and its staff. Sonia Nazareth booked a VIP package through Safari Africa. The tour works out to $4,775 (Dh17,538) per person, based on a 4-person booking scheme, for 9 nights on the mountain (including one night before and after the trek at Arusha). The price includes all meals, a head guide, an assistant guide for every 2 trekkers, porters to carry the luggage, a cook and kitchen staff, a dining and mess tent, a sleeping tent set up for 2 persons, a chemical toilet and park entrance fees. The tiny ration of heated water provided for our bath in our makeshift private bathroom stall was the greatest luxury. A standard package, also based on a 4-person booking, works out to $3,050 (Dh11,202) per person.
When to go: You can climb Kili at any time of year, but the best months to ascend are January-February and September-October. Also good are July and August, if you’re tolerant of the colder weather that winter brings.
Do not underestimate the importance of kit. Even if you’re travelling at a relatively pleasant time, be geared up for the cold and the rain.
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Start-up hopes to end Japan's love affair with cash
Across most of Asia, people pay for taxi rides, restaurant meals and merchandise with smartphone-readable barcodes — except in Japan, where cash still rules. Now, as the country’s biggest web companies race to dominate the payments market, one Tokyo-based startup says it has a fighting chance to win with its QR app.
Origami had a head start when it introduced a QR-code payment service in late 2015 and has since signed up fast-food chain KFC, Tokyo’s largest cab company Nihon Kotsu and convenience store operator Lawson. The company raised $66 million in September to expand nationwide and plans to more than double its staff of about 100 employees, says founder Yoshiki Yasui.
Origami is betting that stores, which until now relied on direct mail and email newsletters, will pay for the ability to reach customers on their smartphones. For example, a hair salon using Origami’s payment app would be able to send a message to past customers with a coupon for their next haircut.
Quick Response codes, the dotted squares that can be read by smartphone cameras, were invented in the 1990s by a unit of Toyota Motor to track automotive parts. But when the Japanese pioneered digital payments almost two decades ago with contactless cards for train fares, they chose the so-called near-field communications technology. The high cost of rolling out NFC payments, convenient ATMs and a culture where lost wallets are often returned have all been cited as reasons why cash remains king in the archipelago. In China, however, QR codes dominate.
Cashless payments, which includes credit cards, accounted for just 20 per cent of total consumer spending in Japan during 2016, compared with 60 per cent in China and 89 per cent in South Korea, according to a report by the Bank of Japan.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills