Architects of Iranian nuclear deal tipped for Nobel Peace Prize

Federica Mogherini and Mohammad Javad Zarif are predicted to pick up the award in a perceived slight to Donald Trump

European Union Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini (C) delivers opening remarks alongside European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management Christos Stylianides (L) and United Nations Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura (R) during a European Union meeting to discuss the way forward for Syria at the 72nd United Nations General Assembly in Manhattan, New York, U.S. September 21, 2017. REUTERS/Darren OrnitzShow less

Eyebrows have been raised at speculation that Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign affairs chief, is one of the frontrunners for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize for her role in facilitating the 2015 accord on Iran’s nuclear programme, according to the Peace Institute of Oslo. The body has a mixed track record in predicting the winners of the award.

Despite – or perhaps because of – the agreement being slammed as the worst deal ever by US president Donald Trump, Ms Mogherini and Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister, are considered the best candidates because they convened the process that ended with the easing of sanctions against Tehran in return for nuclear restrictions.

“The threat of the use of nuclear-arm force is more real than it has been, with North Korea being in play as well,” Henrik Urdal of the Peace Institute said to reporters last week in Oslo. “It’s important to support initiatives that prevent the development and proliferation of nuclear arms.”

Leaving former US secretary of state John Kerry out was no criticism of his role in the deal, the PRIO director said, but could be a way of highlighting to Mr Trump – who has said he's made a decision on whether the US will continue to abide by the deal – that it has broad international support.

Mr Trump’s predecessor, Barack Obama, won the award in his first year in office in 2009. The current US president has also been nominated this time, according to PRIO. Nominations, which include over 200 names every year, are open to academics, lawmakers and non-governmental agencies worldwide. Trump’s odds were 101/1 at William Hill Plc, which estimated Obama’s chance of winning again to be higher, at 20/1.

PRIO’s shortlist also included the White Helmets, formally called the Syrian Civil Defense, and its leader Raed al Saleh, for its efforts to help civilians in the war-torn country. The White Helmets were 4/1 to win the prize at both William Hill and Unibet. The main bookmakers didn’t provide odds for the Iran-deal parties, or for PRIO’s second and third picks:

UNHCR and High Commissioner Filippo Grandi, amid a record number of displaced people globally and crises spanning from Syria and Afghanistan to the Rohingyas in Myanmar

Turkey’s Cumhuriyet newspaper and its former editor Can Dundar, who symbolize president Recept Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on the freedom of the press

Pope Francis was favorite to win at William Hill with 2/1, followed by German chancellor Angela Merkel at 7/2. The American Civil Liberties Union had the lowest odds at Unibet with 3/1, followed by the Pope at 4/1.