US President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail hard this week, hoping to turn his fortunes in the final days of a presidential election that most forecasts suggest he will lose.
His Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, has a wide 8-10 percentage point lead in national opinion polls.
Mr Biden is staging fewer and smaller rallies, aiming to win toss-up states and promoting a plan to tackle Covid-19 for when he runs the White House.
But a cloud hangs over the Biden campaign.
Four years ago, Mr Trump was trailing badly behind Hillary Clinton, yet he managed an upset victory on election night with relatively small majorities in key battleground states.
"A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear," tweeted Dave Wasserman, a forecaster at The Cook Political Report.
"Biden’s lead is larger and more stable than Clinton’s in '16. I’ve seen … almost enough.”
Other top analysts read the data in a similar way. Mr Biden’s lead in polls has been large and steady.
Mr Trump has had consistently poor approval ratings for his presidency and his Covid-19 response has been panned, they say. This election is not a rerun of 2016.
"The polls could still be wrong. But unlike in 2016, where you could see the warning signs, I don't see much cause for concern at the moment," tweeted Nate Jones, a polling analyst with The New York Times.
But The Guardian's US data editor, Mona Chalabi, urged caution.
Pollsters missed many Trump voters in 2016 and those same people may be unwilling to share their true voting intentions in telephone surveys this time around, Ms Chalabi says.
Messages from the candidates on Monday fed into the same narrative.
“We’re going to take our democracy back,” Mr Biden bullishly declared. He urged voters to mark ballots in the “most important election of our lifetimes”.
Meanwhile, Mr Trump blasted the "corrupt media" for deliberately overstating the threat from coronavirus, which has claimed More than 225,000 lives and infected almost 8.7 million people in the US, to hurt his chances on November 3.
"The fake news media is riding Covid, Covid, Covid all the way to the election," Mr Trump tweeted on Monday.
"Cases [are] up because we test, test, test."
The president held three rallies in Pennsylvania on Monday and was booked for others on Tuesday in Michigan and Wyoming.
Mr Trump clawed out victories in the three traditional Democratic strongholds in 2016 and hopes to win them again to keep the White House.
On Tuesday he was also set to address crowds in Nebraska, a reliably conservative state, but also an outlier that does not automatically give all its electoral votes to one candidate, leaving Mr Biden with a chance to add to his tally there.
The president's children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Trump Jr, fanned out across Florida, Arizona and other battlegrounds.
Vice President Mike Pence was also on the trail rather than self-isolating after one of his staffers tested positive for Covid-19.
The Biden campaign was less frenetic. On Monday, Mr Biden stayed close to home for a campaign stop in Wilmington, Delaware, where his 26-point lead over Mr Trump required little buttressing.
On Tuesday, he was headed to Georgia, where the two are neck and neck.
Mr Trump calls his rival “basement Joe” for his stay-at-home campaign.
Mr Biden appears to be comfortable sitting on his lead, buoyed by two passable TV debate performances and perhaps mitigating against any last-minute gaffes.
Greenbacks tell another part of the story. Mr Biden raised $130 million during the first half of October and spent more than $145m.
In that time, Mr Trump raised nearly $43.6m and spent $63.1m, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.
That gives Mr Biden a $107m cash advantage over Mr Trump.
But the figures do not include fundraising by other political committees, and Mr Trump managed to win in 2016 despite Ms Clinton’s bigger war chest.
Early voting may be a decisive factor. By Monday, 58.6 million ballots had been cast by mail and at early voting sites, already more than 2016's totals.
Many Americans are keen to avoid crowds on November 3 because of Covid-19. Nothing either candidate says, does or tweets at this stage can change those votes.
Early-voting turnout appears to favour Democrats but such data is not a good indicator of election outcomes.
At this stage, the Trump campaign strategy appears to involve turning out the same blue-collar voters in swing states who pushed him above the 270 electoral college votes to secure him the White House in 2016.
To accomplish this, Mr Trump needs to win the Republican-leaning and battleground states of Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina and Texas, which he won last time, and beat the odds in Pennsylvania and either Wisconsin or Michigan.
For Nate Silver, another acclaimed election analyst, this is a long shot.
Mr Trump could surprise the pundits in 2020 just as he did in 2016, but the clock is ticking, many votes are already cast and the polls are bleaker.
“There are several theories for why Mr Trump could win that very probably aren’t true,” Mr Silver tweeted.
“But if you add up a lot of longshot possibilities, it’s not that hard to get to a 10-15 per cent chance, which is something worth taking seriously.”
Everton%20Fixtures
%3Cp%3EApril%2015%20-%20Chelsea%20(A)%3Cbr%3EApril%2021%20-%20N.%20Forest%20(H)%3Cbr%3EApril%2024%20-%20Liverpool%20(H)%3Cbr%3EApril%2027%20-%20Brentford%20(H)%3Cbr%3EMay%203%20-%20Luton%20Town%20(A)%3Cbr%3EMay%2011%20-%20Sheff%20Utd%20(H)%3Cbr%3EMay%2019%20-%20Arsenal%20(A)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Meydan card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (PA) Group 1 US$65,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
7.05pm: Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,400m
7.40pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) $100,000 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,200m
8.50pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 (TB) Group 2 $350,000 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Neil Thomson – THE BIO
Family: I am happily married to my wife Liz and we have two children together.
Favourite music: Rock music. I started at a young age due to my father’s influence. He played in an Indian rock band The Flintstones who were once asked by Apple Records to fly over to England to perform there.
Favourite book: I constantly find myself reading The Bible.
Favourite film: The Greatest Showman.
Favourite holiday destination: I love visiting Melbourne as I have family there and it’s a wonderful place. New York at Christmas is also magical.
Favourite food: I went to boarding school so I like any cuisine really.
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20APPLE%20M3%20MACBOOK%20AIR%20(13%22)
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Where to apply
Applicants should send their completed applications - CV, covering letter, sample(s) of your work, letter of recommendation - to Nick March, Assistant Editor in Chief at The National and UAE programme administrator for the Rosalynn Carter Fellowships for Mental Health Journalism, by 5pm on April 30, 2020.
Please send applications to nmarch@thenational.ae and please mark the subject line as “Rosalynn Carter Fellowship for Mental Health Journalism (UAE programme application)”.
The local advisory board will consider all applications and will interview a short list of candidates in Abu Dhabi in June 2020. Successful candidates will be informed before July 30, 2020.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Envision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarthik%20Mahadevan%20and%20Karthik%20Kannan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Netherlands%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Technology%2FAssistive%20Technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204impact%2C%20ABN%20Amro%2C%20Impact%20Ventures%20and%20group%20of%20angels%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 6 (McTominay 2', 3'; Fernandes 20', 70' pen; Lindelof 37'; James 65')
Leeds United 2 (Cooper 41'; Dallas 73')
Man of the match: Scott McTominay (Manchester United)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
JOKE'S%20ON%20YOU
%3Cp%3EGoogle%20wasn't%20new%20to%20busting%20out%20April%20Fool's%20jokes%3A%20before%20the%20Gmail%20%22prank%22%2C%20it%20tricked%20users%20with%20%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fmentalplex%2F%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Emind-reading%20MentalPlex%20responses%3C%2Fa%3E%20and%20said%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fpigeonrank%2F%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3E%20well-fed%20pigeons%20were%20running%20its%20search%20engine%20operations%3C%2Fa%3E%20.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%20subsequent%20years%2C%20they%20announced%20home%20internet%20services%20through%20your%20toilet%20with%20its%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Ftisp%2Finstall.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Epatented%20GFlush%20system%3C%2Fa%3E%22%2C%20made%20us%20believe%20the%20Moon's%20surface%20was%20made%20of%20cheese%20and%20unveiled%20a%20dating%20service%20in%20which%20they%20called%20founders%20Sergey%20Brin%20and%20Larry%20Page%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Farchive.google%2Fromance%2Fpress.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3EStanford%20PhD%20wannabes%3C%2Fa%3E%20%22.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EBut%20Gmail%20was%20all%20too%20real%2C%20purportedly%20inspired%20by%20one%20%E2%80%93%20a%20single%20%E2%80%93%20Google%20user%20complaining%20about%20the%20%22poor%20quality%20of%20existing%20email%20services%22%20and%20born%20%22%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fgooglepress.blogspot.com%2F2004%2F04%2Fgoogle-gets-message-launches-gmail.html%22%20target%3D%22_blank%22%3Emillions%20of%20M%26amp%3BMs%20later%3C%2Fa%3E%22.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
From: Upper Egypt
Age: 78
Family: a daughter in Egypt; a son in Dubai and his wife, Nabila
Favourite Abu Dhabi activity: walking near to Emirates Palace
Favourite building in Abu Dhabi: Emirates Palace
Vikram%20Vedha
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
ANDROID%20VERSION%20NAMES%2C%20IN%20ORDER
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Score
Third Test, Day 2
New Zealand 274
Pakistan 139-3 (61 ov)
Pakistan trail by 135 runs with 7 wickets remaining in the innings
Who was Alfred Nobel?
The Nobel Prize was created by wealthy Swedish chemist and entrepreneur Alfred Nobel.
- In his will he dictated that the bulk of his estate should be used to fund "prizes to those who, during the preceding year, have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind".
- Nobel is best known as the inventor of dynamite, but also wrote poetry and drama and could speak Russian, French, English and German by the age of 17. The five original prize categories reflect the interests closest to his heart.
- Nobel died in 1896 but it took until 1901, following a legal battle over his will, before the first prizes were awarded.
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
UAE%20Warriors%2033%20Results
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAli%20Al%20Qaisi%20by%20Jesse%20Arnett%20by%20submission%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%20title%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EJosh%20Togo%20bt%20Tahir%20Abdullaev%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFlyweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EIago%20Ribeiro%20bt%20Juan%20Puerta%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMiddleweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EYerkin%20Darmen%20bt%20Tyler%20Ray%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAbdulla%20Al%20Bousheiri%20bt%20John%20Adajar%20by%20submission%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20232lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAsylzhan%20Bakhytzhanuly%20bt%20Hasan%20Yousefi%20by%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAlin%20Chirila%20bt%20Silas%20Robson%20by%20KO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECatchweight%20176lb%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EArvin%20Chan%20bt%20Abdi%20Farah%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOle-Jorgen%20Johnsen%20bt%20Nart%20Abida%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%201%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EOtar%20Tanzilov%20bt%20Eduardo%20Dinis%20by%20TKO%2C%20round%203%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrawweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EColine%20Biron%20bt%20Aysun%20Erge%20via%20submission%2C%20round%202%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESoslan%20Margiev%20bt%20Mathieu%20Rakotondrazanany%20by%20unanimous%20decision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBantamweight%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EBakhromjon%20Ruziev%20bt%20Younes%20Chemali%20by%20majority%20decision%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Game Of Thrones Season Seven: A Bluffers Guide
Want to sound on message about the biggest show on television without actually watching it? Best not to get locked into the labyrinthine tales of revenge and royalty: as Isaac Hempstead Wright put it, all you really need to know from now on is that there’s going to be a huge fight between humans and the armies of undead White Walkers.
The season ended with a dragon captured by the Night King blowing apart the huge wall of ice that separates the human world from its less appealing counterpart. Not that some of the humans in Westeros have been particularly appealing, either.
Anyway, the White Walkers are now free to cause any kind of havoc they wish, and as Liam Cunningham told us: “Westeros may be zombie land after the Night King has finished.” If the various human factions don’t put aside their differences in season 8, we could be looking at The Walking Dead: The Medieval Years.
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
