Less than 48 hours after Theresa May threw in the towel as British prime minister, admitting: "I have not been able to deliver Brexit," her Tory party cohorts have been queuing up to replace her. Among the Conservative ministers and MPs who have thrown their hats into the ring are former Brexit secretary Dominic Raab, former leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom, health secretary Matt Hancock, foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt, backbencher Esther McVey and international development secretary Rory Stewart. Boris Johnson and current environment secretary Michael Gove are preparing to face off once again.
But whoever inherits Mrs May’s job will also inherit most of the problems she faced in delivering Brexit, some of them made worse by the mistakes she made and the decisions she took.
At the heart of these problems is the legacy of the 2016 referendum. The Leave campaign assiduously avoided specifying any particular form of Brexit. All that was promised was that it would not be economically damaging, and that it would be quickly and easily achieved.
The latter set expectations that could not be met; hence the repeated refrain from Leave voters now is: “Just get on with it”. With Mrs May having been in office for just under three years, and having twice postponed the planned date to leave the European Union, her successor will be under enormous pressure to meet the current deadline of October 31.
The combination of the time needed for the leadership election and the summer political break means the new leader will really only have a couple of months to deliver.
And, like Mrs May, any successor will need to be mindful that voters were promised there would be no costs to leaving – even more so if the person chosen is one of those who made that promise.
As for defining what Brexit actually means, this continues to be a matter of bitter dispute. From the outset, the main options were a soft Brexit, meaning, primarily, membership of the single market, or a hard Brexit, which would mean leaving the single market and seeking a free trade agreement with the EU. These are entirely different economic and political models, but both require as a precondition a withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU.
After some initial ambiguity, Mrs May opted for hard Brexit, with the UK leaving not just the single market but also the customs union, the system which exempts the UK and the rest of the bloc from tariffs on goods. It is inconceivable that the Conservative party will now elect as leader anyone who advocates a softer Brexit than this.
But a hard Brexit has a consequence which would destroy Mrs May’s attempts to ratify the withdrawal agreement she struck with the EU. By definition, being outside the regulatory area of the single market and the tariff area of the customs union means the UK having a hard border with the EU. And this would compromise the Good Friday Agreement that ended the armed conflict in Northern Ireland.
So in order to ensure that, whatever happens, there is an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the withdrawal agreement specifies a backstop arrangement to be used unless another solution is found. This backstop would mean the UK as a whole remaining in the EU customs union and Northern Ireland also remaining in many aspects of the single market. That way, there would be no need for border checks.
Opposition to the backstop from the most pro-Brexit MPs in her own party and Unionist MPs from Northern Ireland, whose votes she needed for a majority, was the main reason why Mrs May failed to achieve support for her deal on multiple occasions and was forced to resign.
The key political conundrum is that these pro-Brexit MPs opposed Mrs May not because she failed to give them the hard Brexit they wanted but because in agreeing the backstop, she was asking them to recognise the practical realities inherent in a hard Brexit and the compromises needed to implement it. This they will not do.
That all roads lead to crisis reflects the fact that public debate is now so toxic, any outcome will be regarded by some part of the electorate as a betrayal
Instead, they want the backstop to be removed from the withdrawal agreement altogether, in favour of as yet unspecified or untested “alternative arrangements”, or to have a time limit on it (which by definition would mean it was no longer a backstop). If the EU will not agree then they propose to leave with no deal at all.
It is almost certain that Mrs May’s successor will come to office promising to pursue this approach. It is also likely that the EU will not accept the backstop being abandoned or diluted. Indeed it is not clear that they could do so without violating World Trade Organisation rules, even if the Good Friday Agreement was not an issue. So if the new leader sticks to the Brexiteers’ plan, there will be a no-deal Brexit (although some think the British parliament would find a way of preventing this). If they do not stick to the plan, the Brexiteers will revolt again.
But if the UK leaves with no deal, the Irish border issue doesn’t disappear. So in the event of a no-deal Brexit, there will immediately need to be new negotiations - about the border, trade and many other things – for which the EU’s precondition will be what was agreed in the withdrawal agreement, including the backstop.
This will bring things back to accepting something like Mrs May’s deal but with the addition of a major economic crisis. The only other possibilities would be to abandon Brexit altogether or shift to a soft Brexit – each of which would cause a major political crisis. For that matter, a no-deal Brexit would itself cause a political crisis since it is not remotely what Leave voters were promised in 2016.
That all roads lead to crisis reflects the fact that public debate is now so toxic, any outcome will be regarded by some part of the electorate as a betrayal. Mrs May’s main failure was that she did not try to build a consensus, difficult as that would have been, on a realistic way of doing Brexit until it was too late. Her attempt to hold cross-party talks ended in failure earlier this month and precipitated her departure.
Political discourse is now dominated by the language of sabotage, betrayal and treachery. Mrs May did little to challenge that and sometimes encouraged it. Positions on all sides have polarised. So even if a new leader were minded to seek consensus, the possibility of achieving it is very small. But in any case, it also means that the new leader is inevitably going to hold a position that will polarise things further.
In the end, the only way forward might be another referendum or perhaps a general election. But all the signs are that these would yield very close results and fail to provide any real resolution, for Mrs May bequeaths to her successor an even more divided country than the one she inherited.
Yet for all her faults and mistakes, the core challenge of delivering Brexit is not one of leadership but of Brexit itself, as her replacement will shortly discover.
Chris Grey is a professor of organisation studies at Royal Holloway, University of London and the author of The Brexit Blog
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
The specs: 2019 Mini Cooper
Price, base: Dh141,740 (three-door) / Dh165,900 (five-door)
Engine: 1.5-litre four-cylinder (Cooper) / 2.0-litre four-cylinder (Cooper S)
Power: 136hp @ 4,500rpm (Cooper) / 192hp @ 5,000rpm (Cooper S)
Torque: 220Nm @ 1,480rpm (Cooper) / 280Nm @ 1,350rpm (Cooper S)
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 4.8L to 5.4L / 100km
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
The specs
Engine: 77.4kW all-wheel-drive dual motor
Power: 320bhp
Torque: 605Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh219,000
On sale: Now
Petrarch: Everywhere a Wanderer
Christopher Celenza,
Reaktion Books
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Dunbar
Edward St Aubyn
Hogarth
The view from The National
The Specs
Price, base Dh379,000
Engine 2.9-litre, twin-turbo V6
Gearbox eight-speed automatic
Power 503bhp
Torque 443Nm
On sale now
Third Test
Day 3, stumps
India 443-7 (d) & 54-5 (27 ov)
Australia 151
India lead by 346 runs with 5 wickets remaining
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
David Haye record
Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
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A%20QUIET%20PLACE
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THURSDAY'S ORDER OF PLAY
Centre Court
Starting at 10am:
Lucrezia Stefanini v Elena Rybakina (6)
Aryna Sabalenka (4) v Polona Hercog
Sofia Kenin (1) v Zhaoxuan Yan
Kristina Mladenovic v Garbine Muguruza (5)
Sorana Cirstea v Karolina Pliskova (3)
Jessica Pegula v Elina Svitolina (2)
Court 1
Starting at 10am:
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Nadia Podoroska
Marketa Vondrousova v Su-Wei Hsieh
Elise Mertens (7) v Alize Cornet
Tamara Zidansek v Jennifer Brady (11)
Heather Watson v Jodie Burrage
Vera Zvonareva v Amandine Hesse
Court 2
Starting at 10am:
Arantxa Rus v Xiyu Wang
Maria Kostyuk v Lucie Hradecka
Karolina Muchova v Danka Kovinic
Cori Gauff v Ulrikke Eikeri
Mona Barthel v Anastasia Gasanova
Court 3
Starting at 10am:
Kateryna Bondarenko v Yafan Wang
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Anna Bondar
Bianca Turati v Yaroslava Shvedova
ELIO
Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett
Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
Rating: 4/5
Company profile: buybackbazaar.com
Name: buybackbazaar.com
Started: January 2018
Founder(s): Pishu Ganglani and Ricky Husaini
Based: Dubai
Sector: FinTech, micro finance
Initial investment: $1 million
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Everton 1 Stoke City 0
Everton (Rooney 45 1')
Man of the Match Phil Jagielka (Everton)
What is the FNC?
The Federal National Council is one of five federal authorities established by the UAE constitution. It held its first session on December 2, 1972, a year to the day after Federation.
It has 40 members, eight of whom are women. The members represent the UAE population through each of the emirates. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have eight members each, Sharjah and Ras al Khaimah six, and Ajman, Fujairah and Umm Al Quwain have four.
They bring Emirati issues to the council for debate and put those concerns to ministers summoned for questioning.
The FNC’s main functions include passing, amending or rejecting federal draft laws, discussing international treaties and agreements, and offering recommendations on general subjects raised during sessions.
Federal draft laws must first pass through the FNC for recommendations when members can amend the laws to suit the needs of citizens. The draft laws are then forwarded to the Cabinet for consideration and approval.
Since 2006, half of the members have been elected by UAE citizens to serve four-year terms and the other half are appointed by the Ruler’s Courts of the seven emirates.
In the 2015 elections, 78 of the 252 candidates were women. Women also represented 48 per cent of all voters and 67 per cent of the voters were under the age of 40.
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Sui Dhaaga: Made in India
Director: Sharat Katariya
Starring: Varun Dhawan, Anushka Sharma, Raghubir Yadav
3.5/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
What is a black hole?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
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The specs
Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6
Power: 400hp
Torque: 475Nm
Transmission: 9-speed automatic
Price: From Dh215,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Friday (all kick-offs UAE time)
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin (10.30pm)
Saturday
Freiburg v Werder Bremen (5.30pm)
Paderborn v Hoffenheim (5.30pm)
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund (5.30pm)
Borussia Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen (5.30pm)
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (5.30pm)
Sunday
Schalke v Augsburg (3.30pm)
Mainz v RB Leipzig (5.30pm)
Cologne v Fortuna Dusseldorf (8pm)
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Yahya Al Ghassani's bio
Date of birth: April 18, 1998
Playing position: Winger
Clubs: 2015-2017 – Al Ahli Dubai; March-June 2018 – Paris FC; August – Al Wahda