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A US intelligence assessment two months ago gave a warning that without continuing coalition support the Afghan Army would collapse completely with the loss of Kabul “within six months”.
That timeframe came down to weeks in the end, even with limited US air support in some of the final battles in the south and west of the country.
In the days before the fall of Kabul on August 15, the US government asserted that the Afghans had an Army of 350,000 men with an air force, more than capable of holding back the Taliban, who had neither tanks nor planes and were estimated to number no more than 75,000.
When a certain side seems to gain momentum, it attracts combatants and even leaders from other sides simply because there's usually no strong ideological commitment, only the will to survive
Lukas Muller,
historian and Afghan war expert
But the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (Sigar) was more pessimistic in the watchdog’s final quarterly report on US security assistance, released last month.
“The ANDSF [Afghan National Defence and Security Forces] has retaken some districts and the Afghan government still controls all 34 provincial capitals, including Kabul,” they said.
“But from public reporting, the ANDSF appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot.”
“It's important for them to change their behaviour, but they can do it,” said Inspector General John Sopko. “We have given them the hardware. We are funding them.”
So how did the Nato-trained Afghan Army collapse so quickly?
Quantity over quality
In the early years after the international intervention in 2001, the US believed that based on the size of the Taliban insurgency – then thought to number around 30,000 men – the Afghan National Army should be cut from 70,000 to 50,000.
The argument was that Afghanistan needed an army it could afford and one where quality could be sustained.
But within a year, the insurgency rapidly expanded in size, particularly in the south and east of the country, where coalition forces faced almost siege-like conditions in remote outposts, towns and cities whose names would become synonymous with heavy fighting: Laskhar Gah, Sangin and Kandahar, and the myriad small villages in between.
A surge in Taliban attacks led planners to reverse their decision to cut force numbers.
The subsequent expansion of the Army led to a struggle to maintain quality over quantity, an issue that the coalition could not resolve, as a 2010 Sigar report warned.
“Despite billions of dollars of international investment, army combat readiness has been undermined by weak recruitment and retention policies, inadequate logistics, insufficient training and equipment and inconsistent leadership,” the report said.
By 2014, recruits were being given 15 weeks of basic training – an improvement on the initial 10 week course, from a starting point where the force suffered illiteracy rates higher than 80 per cent.
That meant much of the course was reading and writing that might enable soldiers to read maps and send messages across Afghanistan's vast, rugged terrain, rather than developing combat skills.
“International support for the ANA must therefore be targeted not just toward increasing the quantity of troops but enhancing the quality of the fighting force," Sigar warned.
The Sigar report warned that the fundamental strategy whereby Afghans would take control of security to enable a coalition drawdown of forces was threatened by, “the US emphasis on rapid expansion of the army, in response to the growing insurgent threat”.
Between 2010 and 2020, the Afghan army would jump in strength from 113,000 to 185,000, although payroll corruption made it difficult to assess deployable strength.
The Afghan Army, Sigar warned, was becoming bloated and “unwieldy” – bigger than Afghan generals could manage effectively.
There were worse problems ahead. Sigar reporting over the decades warned consistently that corruption was deeply rooted, gradually eroding the morale of Afghan soldiers willing to fight, and sapping their combat capability as resources were siphoned off by corrupt commanders tied to political factions.
Virtually anything that could be stolen, from fuel to food and soldier’s wages, was up for the taking.
Meanwhile, political factionalism and ethnic divisions were left largely unresolved despite efforts to create ethnically mixed units.
The politicisation of the military left unqualified political loyalists in key security roles, including the micromanaging National Security Adviser Hamdullah Mohib, who had no military experience and was in charge during the final collapse of security.
A corrupt system where contractors supplied Afghan Army units with food “makes it difficult for troops to withstand long periods of isolation,” warned a 2016 United States Institute for Peace report.
“This system also applies to ammunition and fuel ... Fuel for operational support is widely wasted because of corruption or significantly delayed, rendering combat vehicles inoperable for a time.”
The Afghan Army’s human and material resources were eaten away by graft, sometimes literally in the form of payroll corruption where “ghost soldiers” plagued the force – non-existent recruits whose salaries were pocketed by commanders.
In a decade, almost no progress had been made: July’s final Sigar report on security noted that, after the implementation of a new electronic record-keeping system, the number of Afghan security forces shrank by 58,000 – the fighters did not exist.
The problem was so persistent that in the months leading up to the fall of southern urban centres Lashkar Gah and Kandahar, soldiers and police had gone months without pay.
“Afghan men in the Army and other forces don't want to die for those corrupt few in Kabul who only see Afghanistan as a money-making opportunity,” says Faran Jeffery, an analyst who has been closely tracking the conflict.
“They have demonstrated that beyond any doubt in past few weeks. For many, their only motivation was supposed to be their salary – and even that wasn't paid on time to many of them."
As coalition efforts drew down to Special Forces assistance missions and finally, remote air power support, the Afghan forces grew accustomed to the idea that in the worst case scenario, Washington would still be there with major firepower.
When that did not materialise, it was the final straw for many unpaid recruits.
“Once they figured out that US was definitely going to withdraw, their remaining motivation to fight also died,” Mr Jeffery says, referring to Mr Biden’s announcement in April that the US would withdraw forces and air support regardless of changing conditions on the ground.
Tribal talks
But there is another side to the sudden change in territorial control, a shadowy political war fought by local Taliban commanders and tribal elders.
“I would say that a significant part of the government apparatus and the military, including pro-government militias, were open to changing sides. When a certain side seems to gain momentum, it attracts combatants and even leaders from other sides simply because there's usually no strong ideological commitment, only the will to survive and a need to secure wealth and careers,” says Afghanistan expert Lukas Muller, author of Wings over the Hindu Kush.
“We could see this again and again and I'd call it the Afghan war 'tradition'."
Mr Jeffery agrees.
“The Taliban's backdoor diplomacy, where they were in contact with several military leaders and telling them that they won't have anywhere to go after the Americans go so you better join the Taliban, that also played a major role,” he says.
“This is why we saw the Taliban taking large areas, including cities, without firing a bullet. It's because they already had an understanding with some military and political leaders as well as tribal leaders and local Islamic clerics and scholars.
“While the Afghan government’s nationalists were busy running hashtags on Twitter, Taliban Islamists were quietly doing homework on the ground. It's this homework that massively paid off in the end in a way that has even surprised senior Taliban leaders.”
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The biogs
Name: Zinah Madi
Occupation: Co-founder of Dots and links
Nationality: Syrian
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Nationality: Jordanian
Family: Married, Mother of Yahya, 3.5
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SQUAD
Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Adel Al Hosani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Bandar Al Ahbabi, Mohammed Barghash, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Hassan Al Mahrami, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Yousef Jaber, Saeed Ahmed, Majed Sorour, Majed Hassan, Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Khalil Al Hammadi, Fabio De Lima, Khalfan Mubarak, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Ali Saleh, Caio Canedo, Muhammed Jumah, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
Fixtures (all times UAE)
Saturday
Brescia v Atalanta (6pm)
Genoa v Torino (9pm)
Fiorentina v Lecce (11.45pm)
Sunday
Juventus v Sassuolo (3.30pm)
Inter Milan v SPAL (6pm)
Lazio v Udinese (6pm)
Parma v AC Milan (6pm)
Napoli v Bologna (9pm)
Verona v AS Roma (11.45pm)
Monday
Cagliari v Sampdoria (11.45pm)
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Visit Abu Dhabi culinary team's top Emirati restaurants in Abu Dhabi
Yadoo’s House Restaurant & Cafe
For the karak and Yoodo's house platter with includes eggs, balaleet, khamir and chebab bread.
Golden Dallah
For the cappuccino, luqaimat and aseeda.
Al Mrzab Restaurant
For the shrimp murabian and Kuwaiti options including Kuwaiti machboos with kebab and spicy sauce.
Al Derwaza
For the fish hubul, regag bread, biryani and special seafood soup.
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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
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Last-16 Europa League fixtures
Wednesday (Kick-offs UAE)
FC Copenhagen (0) v Istanbul Basaksehir (1) 8.55pm
Shakhtar Donetsk (2) v Wolfsburg (1) 8.55pm
Inter Milan v Getafe (one leg only) 11pm
Manchester United (5) v LASK (0) 11pm
Thursday
Bayer Leverkusen (3) v Rangers (1) 8.55pm
Sevilla v Roma (one leg only) 8.55pm
FC Basel (3) v Eintracht Frankfurt (0) 11pm
Wolves (1) Olympiakos (1) 11pm
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
Race 3
Produced: Salman Khan Films and Tips Films
Director: Remo D’Souza
Cast: Salman Khan, Anil Kapoor, Jacqueline Fernandez, Bobby Deol, Daisy Shah, Saqib Salem
Rating: 2.5 stars
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 620hp from 5,750-7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm from 3,000-5,750rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed dual-clutch auto
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh1.05 million ($286,000)
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I