Ethiopia takes the Sudan election route

Merera Gudina, the leader of Ethiopia's biggest opposition coalition, has made a strong challenge, but the coalition's supporters face imprisonment and worse.

NAIROBI // Ethiopians head to the polls on Sunday in a parliamentary election that will probably keep the ruling party in power. The election, which has been marred by intimidation, is attracting relatively little attention in a region plagued by voting difficulties.

The Ethiopian election could follow similar storylines to the poll in neighbouring Sudan. Last month, the Sudanese re-elected Omar al Bashir, in an election tainted by fraud and violence. In Ethiopia, the prime minister, Meles Zenawi, who has ruled with an iron fist for nearly 20 years, is almost assured that his party will win comfortably. Voters in Africa's third most populous country will fill almost 550 seats in the House of Representatives.

There have already been accusations of intimidation. Opposition parties say they have been silenced by the ruling party. Media outlets and human-rights observers claim that their movements have been restricted. Security in the country, which has a history of violent elections, has been tightened. After Ethiopia's 2005 election, the closest contested election in the country's short democratic history, opposition groups said the vote was rigged in favour of the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front. Protests ensued and police killed nearly 200 people and arrested thousands.

Birtukan Mideksa, an opposition leader, was one of those arrested after her party won one-third of the seats in the election. She was charged with treason and later pardoned, but she was rearrested in 2008 and is serving a life sentence for violating the terms of her pardon. Human-rights groups have called for her release before the election, but the government has said she will remain in jail during the voting.

"We are not in a position to intervene in any legal affair," Bereket Simon, Ethiopia's communications minister, told reporters last week in Addis Ababa, the capital. "The government has repeatedly declared its position is not to budge to any foreign or local pressure." Another opposition candidate, Aregawi Gebre-Yohannes, was killed in March in what opposition leaders said was part of a widening campaign of repression before the election. Other opposition candidates have been beaten.

"Expressing dissent is very dangerous in Ethiopia," Georgette Gagnon, Africa director at Human Rights Watch, said at a recent press conference in Nairobi. "The ruling party and the state are becoming one, and the government is using the full weight of its power to eliminate opposition and intimidate people into silence." Human Rights Watch recently published a 60-page report documenting intimidation and pre-election violations of freedom of expression.

Mounting the strongest challenge to the ruling party is Medrek, a coalition of eight opposition parties that is fielding the second largest number of parliamentary candidates. The coalition is led by Merera Gudina, a university professor from the southern Oromia region. The major issues in the election include economic development and food security. Also important is Ethiopia's relationship to the West. The country has been a strong ally of the United States in its war on terrorism in the Horn of Africa. In 2007, Ethiopian troops backed by the US invaded Somalia to root out Islamic insurgents.

Ethiopia is also embroiled in two other conflicts. The border area with Eritrea, its northern neighbour, remains tense and militarised. It is also fighting ethnic Somali insurgents in the eastern Ogaden region. Supporters of Mr Meles point out that his regime is the most democratic in Ethiopia's history. The ruling party has embarked on massive investment in infrastructure projects such as roads and power plants, which have bolstered the country's economy. The International Monetary Fund said last month that Ethiopia would excel this year with growth in excess of five per cent. Human rights have increased, but critics say the pace of democratic reforms is moving too slowly.

The European Union is sending a team of 170 to observe the election. The African Union is also sending election monitors. Thijs Berman, the head of the EU observer mission, said: "We hope that the presence of EU observers will contribute to the integrity and credibility of the election process." The Addis Fortune, the largest independent English-language newspaper, urged the candidates to accept the results of the election and avoid post-election violence.

"The Ethiopian electorate, regardless of its choice, should elect its future leaders taking into consideration a smooth and peaceful democratic process," the influential paper said in an editorial. "Political maturity, demonstrated through exemplary tolerance, is crucial and impeccable. It is equally expected from all those fighting to gain votes." @Email:[e-mail]