US says it cannot independently verify Israel's UNRWA claims

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A US intelligence report has found that Israel's claims that UNRWA staff members in Gaza took part in the deadly Hamas attack on Israel last October cannot be independently verified.

The US National Intelligence Council said in a report last week that it had “low confidence” that staff at the UN agency for Palestinian refugees took part in the violence in southern Israel on October 7, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The “low confidence” conclusion means that the US intelligence community believes Israel's claims may be plausible but that American agencies could not independently confirm them.

Israel has accused a dozen people employed by UNRWA of being involved in the Hamas-led attacks that, according to Israeli figures, killed about 1,139 people.

The UN fired some of the members mentioned in the allegations. Others have died since Israel began its military operations in Gaza.

The claims led to the US and other countries freezing funding for the agency, which is responsible for delivering vital humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and countries in the region.

The report added that although UNRWA regularly has to co-ordinate with Hamas to operate in Gaza, this does not mean the UN agency is directly collaborating with the militant group.

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The intelligence report's findings are in stark contrast to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks in January, in which he said that the accusations against UNRWA were “highly, highly credible”.

The Journal also reported that Israel has not “shared the raw intelligence behind its assessments with the US” despite the strong security relationship between the two countries.

Israel has shared a dossier of sorts outlining its accusations, alongside details of where their evidence stems from, with the US and several western news organisations.

The UN has started an independent investigation into UNRWA to verify Israel's claims and take action as needed.

However, the UN and UNRWA leadership say Israel has not shared any evidence to aid in the investigation.

“We are asking now the state of Israel to fully co-operate to provide the evidence to the investigation team,” UNRWA director Philippe Lazzarini told Haaretz on Wednesday.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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