A global coronavirus vaccine campaign could prevent Omicron-style outbreaks

Vaccine inequity is helping the virus to mutate in developing countries

A thermal camera detects the body temperature of a customer as a measure to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at an entrance of a restaurant, in Taipei, Taiwan, November 30, 2021. ReutersShow less

Live updates: follow the latest news on Covid-19 variant Omicron

The ability of the coronavirus to mutate into more contagious and sometimes more dangerous variants often catches countries off guard.

And yet, according to Emma Hodcroft, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, the virus mutates at about half the rate of the influenza virus.

That dashes any hopes that the coronavirus could soon mutate into a less dangerous form, as happened to the H1N1 viruses of the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 to 1923.

Instead, experts tell The National that global vaccination efforts are vital in reducing the risk of and conquering Covid, the disease caused by the virus, once and for all.

The shock of mutations

In February, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told reporters his country had “shown the world” how to tackle the coronavirus.

But events moved quickly, and by April scientists had identified B.1.617.2, the Delta variant of the virus, saying that it had probably been in circulation since December 2020.

Indian students apply the finishing touches to paintings created to raise awareness of the variant in Mumbai. Reuters

International travellers wearing personal protective equipment arrive at Melbourne's Tullamarine Airport as Australia records its first cases of the Omicron variant. AFP

A greeting at the international terminal of Sydney Airport, as countries respond to the new variant. Reuters

A sign asking people to wear face coverings in a building in Manhattan as the newly discovered Omicron variant appears in countries around the world. AFP

Tourists wave as the ‘Europa’ passenger liner arrives in South African waters off Cape Town as the new coronavirus variant Omicron spreads in other countries. Reuters

Schiphol airport in Amsterdam. Dutch health authorities said they have found another case of the Omicron Covid-19 variant among passengers arriving from South Africa, bringing the country’s total to 14. AFP

Pupils wear face masks in Beijing. Despite the global worry, scientists say it remains unclear whether the Omicron variant is more dangerous than other strains of the virus. AP

People wearing face masks in Manhattan. New York's governor has declared a state of emergency due to the risk of a surge of Covid-19 cases as winter sets in. AFP

British Health Secretary Sajid Javid meets a member of staff at a vaccine centre in Guy's and St Thomas' Hospital, London. Getty Images

A sign points the way to a Covid-19 test centre at Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands. AFP

Narita International Airport in Japan is quiet after travel was restricted to prevent the spread of Omicron. Reuters

A PCR test at O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg. AFP

Soekarno Hatta International airport. Indonesia has banned the arrival of travellers who have recently been in eight southern African countries. Reuters

Suvarnabhumi Airport in Bangkok after Thailand banned entry from eight southern African countries due to the Omicron variant. Reuters

Travellers wear personal protective equipment outside the international terminal at Sydney Airport, Australia. Reuters

Passengers wearing protective gear at Incheon International Airport in South Korea, where health authorities have imposed an entry ban on foreign arrivals from eight African countries, including South Africa. EPA

Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv. The Israeli government approved a 14-day ban on foreign arrivals over concerns about Omicron. EPA

Travellers queuing in the hope of boarding an overbooked Lufthansa flight at Cape Town International Airport. Antonie Robertson / The National

Covid-stricken Czech President Milos Zeman sits in a plastic cage as he appoints Petr Fiala as Prime Minister, near Prague. AFP

Tourists checking in at Cape Town International Airport in South Africa. Antonie Robertson / The National

Several airlines have stopped flying out of South Africa amid the spread of the new variant, causing disruption at O.R. Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg. Reuters

Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt at a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra. Two cases of the recently discovered Omicron variant were detected in New South Wales. EPA

Passengers, many not wearing face coverings, on the London Underground. Health Secretary Sajid Javid said mandatory mask-wearing would return to shops and public transport in England but there are concerns over how the rule will be enforced. AFP

A stroll, with face masks, in Biarritz, south-western France. French Health Minister Olivier Veran said France had no confirmed cases of the Omicron variant and was not changing its strategy of increasing vaccinations and booster shots. AP

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty during a press conference on the variant in London. Reuters

In June, scientists in the UK said that the Delta variant could be up to 60 per cent more transmissible than the Alpha of the virus that was dominant in the UK at the time.

In turn, Alpha was thought to be three times more transmissible than the original strain of the virus that emerged in Wuhan, China, in 2019.

The human toll in India and around the world is horrifying. As many as four million Indians may have died from the virus, a statistic that shows why there is so much concern about the Omicron variant.

At the time of Delta's emergence, India's vaccination rate was less than three per cent, far lower than South Africa where Omicron is now gaining a foothold.

This raises the question of how to stop more dangerous mutations, particularly in parts of the world where vaccine distribution is poor.

Vaccination end game

Most scientists now agree widespread global distribution of vaccines is essential.

On November 5, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged manufacturers to speed up delivery of vaccines to developing countries through the Covax scheme.

“Let me be very clear: this should not be happening. We have all the tools to prevent transmission and save lives, and we continue to call on all countries to use those tools,” he said, making the point again to the World Health Assembly on Monday.

Dr Islam Anan, a lecturer in pharmacoeconomics at Egypt's Ain Shams University and a public health consultant, said vaccine inequity was central to an increased risk of new, more dangerous coronavirus mutations.

"To start with, we are in this scenario because of vaccine nationalism," he said.

"We do have the resources. We do have capacity to produce much, much more vaccine doses than we have now. And we can actually distribute them. But whenever you see the G7 go to a meeting and promise three billion doses to fragile countries, they struggle to deliver half of that."

By October, around 300 million vaccines had been delivered through the Covax scheme. In May, Covax announced its ambition to deliver two billion doses in 2021 but it is expected that by January Covax will have shipped about 1.45 billion of those.

About 11 billion doses are needed around the world to slow the mutation of the virus and the stall Covid-19, the WHO said.

"If you continue with inequity and no fair distribution of vaccines in Africa, we can expect to have a new variant with an escape mutation in the first quarter of 2022," Dr Anan said.

Stopping dangerous variants in time

An added danger is that coronavirus variants can circulate undetected for months in parts of the world where testing is patchy or where little or no genomic sequencing to identify variants has been carried out.

Even with South Africa's rapid identification of the variant, Omicron could have been in circulation for more than a month, according to a health expert at Yale University.

Nicholas A Christakis’ analysis follows other findings on the mutation of the virus that place the identification of a variant weeks or even months after it first emerged.

“The Omicron variant likely arose much earlier than when it came to our notice, probably in early October,” Dr Christakis said.

This silent spread of dangerous variants calls into question the policy of closing borders that is common among governments.

“We may assume Omicron is everywhere and that border closures are of little use. Whether they will be easy to undo, politically, is another matter,” Dr Christakis said.

According to Gavi, the multinational and multi-NGO vaccine alliance, widespread vaccination among these populations could reduce the potency of the coronavirus.

“Vaccines might enable us to outpace the virus. Even though they don’t fully protect against infection, they could provide the firebreak that’s needed to extinguish Covid-19 outbreaks. But for that to happen, they need to be rolled out quickly, and to as many people as possible,” the alliance said.

Countries with high vaccination rates are still stepping up to help, but there are logistical challenges.

Moderna chief executive Stéphane Bancel recently said that 70 million doses of his company's vaccines were in storage, unclaimed by either Covax or the governments that had asked for them.

On Tuesday, India said it was ready to "expeditiously" send more vaccines to Africa to help fight the Omicron variant. That followed a new Chinese commitment of one billion vaccine doses.

Greater international efforts cannot come soon enough. On Tuesday, Mr Bancel warned that Omicron could produce a "material drop," in the effectiveness of vaccines, although he said it would be some time before anyone knew how serious such a drop in effectiveness could be.