The UAE needs to redouble efforts to encourage the transition to electric vehicles if it is to reach its 2050 net-zero target, a study has found.
Researchers say rapid growth in the number of vehicles on the road will make it more difficult for the country to realise its key carbon-reduction goals.
In a new study presented at the 12th World Congress on New Technologies last month in London, researchers calculated that by mid-century UAE transport emissions are set to be the equivalent of about 12 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year without significant increases in EV adoption.
While there is a substantial reduction from current levels, estimated by the study to be equivalent to 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, the “continuous growth of the fleet size” in the country will “restrain deep decarbonisation”, say the University of Sharjah scientists who led the research.
Population rise fuels vehicle surge
Population growth is leading to a significant increase in the number of vehicles on the UAE’s roads, with official figures released in the second half of 2025 showing 390,000 registered vehicles were added in a year, bringing the total to 4.56 million. New and imported second-hand vehicles can be registered.
The researchers say their findings suggest that “even more stringent measures” could be considered to help the UAE limit its transport carbon emissions, including “financial incentives for retiring ICE [internal combustion engine] vehicles early” and increases in charging infrastructure.
Figures published by The National in April show 11,700 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were sold in the UAE last year, down from 12,400 in 2024.
This means BEVs accounted for a modest 3.4 per cent of the 345,000 new vehicles sold in the country in 2025.
There was, however, an increase in sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles, with the number increasing to 1,100, compared to 200 the previous year.
Official targets call for half the cars on the UAE’s roads to be battery or hybrid vehicles by 2050, the year by which the country also aims to reach net-zero carbon emissions.
The use of alternative fuels and carbon offsets – in which carbon-dioxide removals balance out emissions elsewhere – can enable nations to reach net-zero even when sectors such as transport still generate greenhouse gases.
Nour Al Huda El Chihabi, a postgraduate student at the University of Sharjah, who carried out the research with Prof Sameh Al Shihabi, said the UAE should ideally aim for EVs to account for 90 per cent of vehicles on the road by 2050, with the transition being sped up by schemes to encourage the retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles.
Ms El Chihabi said fast-charging infrastructure, cheaper registration fees for EVs, road toll exemptions, preferential loans for purchasing green vehicles, plus “purchase disincentives” for ICE vehicles could also hasten the move to EVs.
“Ideally, the country should target less than one million tonnes CO2 emissions in 2050 for direct passenger-fleet emissions,” Ms El Chihabi said.
“However, based on our study, we conclude that reaching a low figure of CO2 emissions from the passenger-fleet transport sector is not straightforward.”
A key issue, she said, is that real emissions from road transport can be reduced only if the way electricity is generated is also decarbonised.
Lagging behind
Jaber Al Harbi, managing director of the Bin Yaber Driving Institute, a Dubai driving school, said the number of EVs being sold was “nowhere near where the country needs to be” if it is to reach its 2050 target of half the fleet being fully electric or hybrid.
Practical worries make car buyers hesitant about EVs, he said, including the fact that charging outside Dubai and Abu Dhabi “is still patchy”.
“Anyone doing a longer drive has real reason to hesitate,” he said. “Drivers need to trust they can find a charger on the routes they actually drive, not just in the neighbourhoods where it’s commercially easy to install one.
“The upfront price is still a stretch when petrol here is cheap by global standards, so the maths doesn’t push people the way it does in other markets.”
He also said second-hand prices were “a genuine unknown”, with buyers nervous about how much battery life was left in a five-year-old car.
“The fastest win is honest information,” he said. “Half the resistance I hear is based on things that were true five years ago – range, charging speed, how batteries hold up in the heat – and simply isn’t true any more. Get people behind the wheel for a week and most of that hesitation disappears on its own.”
EV ambitions remain realistic
Joseph Salem, a partner and head of the travel, transportation and hospitality practice in Dubai at the consultancy Arthur D Little, said several factors could help to encourage EV sales in the UAE, including growth in range, in terms of mileage, improvements in price and environmental awareness.
He described the aim that by 2050 half of the vehicles on the road should be EVs as “fairly conservative”, saying the country would likely reach that point “around 2040, 2045”.
“This target is realistic as a floor, not as a ceiling,” he said. “The bigger variable is not the consumer appetite, it’s the grid and the charging infrastructure.
“It is becoming more and more practical for daily urban use in Dubai and in Abu Dhabi, and we are seeing charging networks that are growing along the Sheikh Zayed Road, at the malls and most commutes are well within range.
“It gets less practical when you look at cross-emirate trips or GCC [Gulf Co-operation Council] road trips, where charging density drops fast outside of the main corridor … but the plans are to expand the charging infrastructure.”
Growing the charging network
The Charge AD and Barq initiatives are seeing new charging stations being installed in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, while Dubai is also expanding its charging infrastructure at fuel stations, on motorways, in malls and in residential areas.
In April, Dubai Municipality joined forces with Emarat EV Charging Stations Company to install supercharging stations at 600 parking spaces across the emirate, in a Dh150 million ($40.8 million) strategy.
In terms of driving, Mr Al Harbi said EVs were “easier in almost every way that matters day to day” than conventional vehicles.
There is no gearbox, acceleration is smooth and, with regenerative braking, many drivers “barely touch the brake pedal once they get used to it”.
“The one adjustment is one-pedal driving: lifting off the accelerator does most of the slowing down for you and that takes a few drives to trust,” he said.
“The torque is instant too, so a driver who isn’t ready for it can pull away harder than they meant to.”
As there is a heavy battery sitting low in the vehicle, EVs are “far more stable” and much less likely to roll than similarly sized conventional vehicles, Mr Al Harbi said.
One safety downside is that because EVs are quiet, pedestrians may not hear them at low speeds and so may step out in front of them, making awareness among EV drivers more important.
