Some doubt ability to further reduce nuclear arsenals worldwide

The US and Russia have already made serious reductions in the wake of the Cold War and may be reluctant to continue.

TOKYO // International nuclear experts hailed the significance of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative meeting taking place in Hiroshima this week.

Some, however, doubt how much more the group will be able to further reduce nuclear arsenals around the world.

“The US has reduced its nuclear arsenal by about 80 percent since the end of the Cold War and Russia has made similar cuts,” said William Tobey, a senior research fellow at the Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University in the US. “Prospects for further reductions now seem quite limited. Russia evinces a determination to avoid further cuts, and refuses even to discuss its large stocks of non-strategic nuclear weapons.”

He said reports of new missile activity in Russia, which may have violated the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, would need to be resolved before any further treaties were signed.

“I foresee little prospect that the initiative will alter the policies of states that possess nuclear weapons,” he said. “Indeed, their participation in the initiative has been incomplete. The initiative’s ability to influence non-proliferation and disarmament policy remains unclear and it does not seem to have any bearing on the nuclear energy industry.”

Bart Dal, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s advisor for nuclear security and safeguards, was more hopeful.

“The strengthening initiative is important because there is no obligation for countries to apply good practises in their country,” he said. “Subscribing to the initiative means that subscribing countries voluntarily commit themselves to implement the internationally approved IAEA guidance through their national regulations. Next to that, countries commit themselves to invite peer review missions to their countries. Both actions are important for enhancing nuclear security in individual states and, with that, improve the global nuclear security system as a whole.”

He said that so far two-thirds of the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) countries had signed up to the initiative.

“My expectation is that the US will ask the remainder of the countries to sign before 2016 so that a powerful message can be sent to the countries outside of the NSS to follow this example of good behaviour,” he said. “Nuclear security has no standards like safety has. The initiative’s commitments will transform the IAEA guidance into a sort of ‘global’ standard for security. The ultimate goal is to eliminate weak links anywhere in the world.”

George Borovas, head of nuclear for global law firm Shearman & Sterling, said the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) served as a foundation for the global nuclear security industry. “As a number of new countries around the world are considering or embarking on civilian nuclear programmes, reaffirming the commitment to the three pillars of the NPT will be essential.”

Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova, a senior research associate at the James Martin Centre for Non-Proliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in Washington, DC, said the initiative could help bridge the differences between nuclear and non-nuclear-weapon states or between the non-aligned and western countries.

“It can play a role in particular on non-proliferation issues and promoting greater transparency on the nuclear-weapon states’ arsenals,” she said. “Cross-regional groupings can play an important part in the NPT review process in terms of helping find common ground on key issues among states parties.”

This year’s meeting is the first to feature guest speakers from the US and Indonesia.

“It seems the initiative wants to underscore its connection to both the US and the Non-Aligned Movement, of which Indonesia is an important leader,” Ms Mukhatzhanova said. “There have been reports that this year’s initiative will call more specifically on China to join arms control negotiations with Russia and the US. There are, however, no US-Russian negotiations on nuclear reductions currently under way, nor are they likely to commence any time soon.”