Latest: Meet 20 heroes in the frontline fight against Covid-19
The UAE can bring the coronavirus outbreak under control within three to four weeks – if the public adheres to the stay home order, a government doctor said.
Dr Adil Sajwani said the country should turn a corner and begin to 'flatten the curve' in the next month.
But he warned the fight would be prolonged if residents ignore strict measures taken to curb personal travel.
"We hope that within three to four weeks, if everyone co-operates, that we will flatten the curve," said Dr Sajwani, a family medicine specialist the Ministry of Health and Prevention and member of the national awareness team for Covid-19.
“Flattening the curve depends on the people. If they do not [help], the government has to take strong measurements to let them stay home. It will take longer if people do not co-operate."
He said the sharp rise in cases in the past week – roughly 300 new patients each day – was to be expected and should not alarm the public.
“Every day the number of people is increasing and this is because testing is increasing," he said.
"Most of the cases are mild and many of them receive no treatment.
“Only some cases need treatment but, again, we will not reach zero cases soon."
He warned of the continued need for a 24-hour stay home order in Dubai and predicted other emirates would soon tighten rules on personal travel.
He said the bulk of people were co-operating but others are "not taking the disease seriously".
"Some of them are still gathering, and, as suspected, not sticking to proper quarantine," he said.
“People are still going out from 6am to 8pm, except in Dubai. So if they are still going out, especially to the supermarkets, this will increase the spread of the disease."
He said the country has been testing about 15,000 to 20,000 people per day, which has allowed patients to be quickly identified, and many others ruled out.
He also said the Emirates has looked to emulate the mass testing seen in South Korea and Germany. A robust approach to testing has been credited with bringing the outbreak in those countries under control, while in others it has become out of hand.
“We are one of the top countries in the world for mass testing … above 600,000 which is very high. It is very important," he said.
Despite the prediction that numbers will be brought under control, he was not able to say when – without a vaccine – restrictions on travel would be lifted.
"It is possible without proper treatment and vaccination to flatten the curve, but again, people have to stay home and maintain physical distancing," he said.
What is flattening the curve?
Any health system has a maximum capacity, including the Emirates.
And a steep, sharp increase in patients can only be managed for so long, as beds fill up and staff become overwhelmed.
The phrase 'flatten the curve' means to slow the rapid growth of new patients to a manageable level, as the graphic shows above. That gives hospitals time to treat them and allow them to recover.
The best example is likening the healthcare system to a train carriage that can only hold so many people at one time.
If you stagger rush hour, that allows everyone the chance to get a seat at some point.
The phrase has also become shorthand for turning a corner or reaching the 'tipping point', after which countries will begin to see a falling number of cases each day.
Lockdowns, curfews and stay home orders are seen as key to flattening the curve, as that limits the number of people that could catch the virus from someone else.
In the absence of a vaccine, which is estimated to be at least 12 months away, the theory is regarded as the best course of action we have at present.
Fishing industry boosts local food production – in pictures
-
A fruit vendor with his watermelons at the Abu Dhabi Fruits and Vegetables Market during the Coronavirus epidemic. Victor Besa / The National -
Abu Dhabi Civil Defence and Police sterilisation drive in Mussafah. Victor Besa / The National -
A vegetable vendor fixes his gloves at the Abu Dhabi Fruits and Vegetables Market during the Coronavirus epidemic. Victor Besa / The National -
A key worker wears a facemask as he walks passed a brightly coloured mural in Media City, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A deserted part of JBR, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A digger does some work on an empty Jumeirah beach, this is normally a very popular spot for beach goers, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Abu Dhabi Civil Defence and Police sterilisation drive in Mussafah. Victor Besa / The National -
A poster on Sheikh Zayed Road shows a family wearing facemasks tell people to Stay at home, Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A man walks past fishing boats in Ajman wearing a mask amid the coronavirus crisis. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A market worker boxes up fish at Ras Al Khaimah's dock. Antonie Robertson / The National -
Empty streets in RAK as residents stay home for a third week. Antonie Robertson / The National -
Residents of the Northern Emirates must stay home from 8pm to 6am, but can leave home to shop for essentials outside of those times. Antonie Robertson / The National -
A sign outside Dubai Parks and Resorts offers support to frontline workers. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
No entry signs at the closed Corniche in Abu Dhabi. Victor Besa / The National -
A street cleaner sanitises gutters at Marina Mall car park in Abu Dhabi. Victor Besa / The National -
The normally busy beaches of Abu Dhabi have been deserted in recent weeks. Victor Besa / The National -
A shopper picks up essentials at Carrefour in Dubai's Ibn Battuta Mall. Dubai residents must apply for a permit to leave home. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
The only vehicles on Dubai's roads are delivery trucks, bike couriers and minibuses taking essential personnel to and from work. Victor Besa / The National -
The empty Al Maktoum Road near Deira Clock Tower in Dubai. It would normally be one of the city's busiest streets. Pawan Singh / The National -
A 24-hour stay-home order and the disinfecting of streets has left Dubai streets mostly deserted. Pawan Singh / The National -
The famous Deira Clock Tower at the heart of the city's old town. Pawan Singh / The National -
The bridge to Meydan hotel and racecourse stands empty on Saturday evening. Reem Mohammed / The National -
A shopkeeper waits outside his dress store in Al Ain. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
An ambulance on a street in Al Ain. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A quiet street leads to Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Grand mosque in Al Ain. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
The empty bridge to Meydan during daytime. Reem Mohammed / The National -
Dubai residents must remain indoors at all times, unless they have a permit for essential shopping. Reem Mohammed / The National -
Residents queue outside a supermarket in the Muraqqabat area of Deira in Dubai. Pawan Singh / The National -
A customer enters a pharmacy in Dubai. Pharmacies and supermarkets are the only stores allowed to remain open to the public. Pawan Singh / The National -
A man rides his bike across the street in Al Ain. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A medical worker in a booth prepares to swab residents at a drive-through test centre in the Dubai suburb of Khawaneej. AFP -
Dubai skyline during lockdown. Antonie Robertson / The National -
A man takes a taxi after leaving the Business Bay Metro station, Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National -
An awareness board on Meydan road, Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National -
The empty Kite Beach area of Dubai. Antonie Robertson / The National -
A healthcare worker crosses an empty street in Bur Dubai while wearing a mask amid the coronavirus outbreak. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
A gentleman crosses an empty street in Oud Metha in Dubai. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Men in face mask walking by nurseries in Warsan. Reem Mohammed / The National
