A couple of weeks ago, this journalist wrote that Arsenal fans should not let failures of previous seasons cloud what looks like a great chance of winning the title this season.
The story was headlined Arsenal, always a game from inspiring doubt, actually have lots to be confident about.
A superb squad, a favourable fixture list at the toughest time of the year around Christmas and one world class player in Alexis Sanchez was reason for optimism.
However, one of the failures of previous seasons is repeating itself and giving a genuine reason to be pessimistic (and change opinion).
Arsenal do not perform well against the Premier League’s other top five sides – Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.
There is a clear and consistent pattern to suggest that Arsenal’s issues against title rivals must be part-psychological, based on the weight of history.
In 2013/14, Arsenal averaged 1.2 points per game in the 10 matches against the other “Big Six” teams. They scored just nine and conceded 19.
A season later, 1.1 points per game, 14 for, 13 against.
In 15/16, they had an identical results record to the previous season – two wins, five draws, three defeats. They scored and conceded 15 and averaged… 1.1 points per game.
In those three seasons, they only won seven of 30 encounters with their nearest rivals.
It is not good enough and is a reason why results such as the 0-0 draw at home to Middlesbrough make fans nervous. Deep down they know that Arsenal will not assert themselves in games against their title rivals, making every other point count that bit more.
The meagre display at Manchester United on Saturday was the latest example of Arsenal failing to perform against title rivals. It was probably their worst game of the season and, though he does not always speak with logic, United manager Jose Mourinho was correct when he said Arsenal were lucky to get a point.
Their only shot on goal was the one from Olivier Giroud at the death that earned them a draw.
Arsenal have had results – the 2-0 win at City in 14/15 or the 3-0 thrashing of Chelsea this season – that convince you they have turned a corner.
But really they mask what is a fairly consistent record of mediocrity in the biggest league games.
This season they have played each “Big Six” side except City once and are averaging 1.25 points a game – a marginal improvement but not from a full sample size.
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You would not be surprised if they ended 16/17 with the same record again as the previous two seasons, especially as they are still to travel to Chelsea, City, Spurs and Liverpool.
It is baffling because Arsenal do have so much talent in their squad. They seem perfectly set up – with the pace of the likes of Sanchez and Theo Walcott – for counter-attacking football away from home. They are better defensively than in previous seasons, too.
Going to Old Trafford, they had the former, the stronger team on paper and the confidence to really make a statement.
But they did not take that risk and it is the same old story.
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