Carlo Ancelotti has a preference for knockout football. Or at least that is what he told us in his entertaining memoir, written six years ago, which he entitled I Prefer Cups, referencing the slight leaning in his earlier coaching career towards significant triumphs in knockout competitions rather than leagues.
Cups, and big finals, have again and again brought the best of Ancelotti. He is calm in make-or-break moments, clear-sighted on the high-wire of intense pressure.
His three Uefa Champions League titles make him the most successful coach of the 21st century in Europe's ultimate club competition. Bringing a 10th European Cup to Real Madrid last May makes him the most appreciated Madrid coach of the last 13 years.
But Sunday evening, he might not feel like that. A La Liga title may well be at stake in this Clasico, and, with victory, perhaps a unique record for Ancelotti, a man who, cup specialist or not, has been fairly handy at picking up championships, too.
Should Madrid beat Barcelona at Camp Nou and put themselves two points ahead of Barca with 10 matches left, his progress towards a Spanish league title to add to his Serie A (with AC Milan in 2003/04), Premier League (Chelsea, 2009/10), and Ligue 1 (Paris Saint Germain, 2012/13) crowns would look very favourable.
Ancelotti has two major trophies from his first season with Madrid, as well as the added premium that they were both won at the direct expense of a fierce rival, with Atletico beaten in the Champions League final and Barca defeated in the Copa del Rey final.
That Barcelona won nothing in his first campaign added an extra glint to those medals, at least in the eyes of his employers.
Yet he is under scrutiny 10 months later, his future cast in doubt. That Barcelona leapfrogged Madrid in the league table two weeks ago, after Ancelotti’s team had enjoyed a 127-day stint in top position, puts Ancelotti under the spotlight – from his directors and president, from the crowd at the Santiago Bernabeu, from the Spanish media, and perhaps from the ghosts of times past, when a younger Ancelotti had a reputation as a coach liable to let advantages slip.
This he did at Juventus, where a 3-1 lead in a Champions League semi-final turned into a defeat against Manchester United; as he did at Milan, where 3-0 up in a European Cup final against Liverpool turned into silver medals for his side.
Those setbacks are a long way back in history. The concern for Ancelotti is that the swaggering 22-match sequence of wins, across all competitions, that his Madrid compiled in the autumn and winter also seems distant past.
Optimistically, he thought his players recovered some of that old confidence last weekend, in the 2-0 win against Levante.
“What I saw in the first half made me happy,” he said.
But then the doubts of recent months resurfaced: “But the second half worried me. Against Barcelona, we need to be at our best the whole game.”
Ancelotti has followed one powerful dogma this season, and that is faith in his best XI.
He hardly rotated players during the busy, buoyant streak through October, November and December, and the slump since then has revealed symptoms of tiredness, and a run of important injuries.
He knows Madrid are fortified by the return as a pairing of Sergio Ramos and Pepe in central defence, that Luka Modric, back after a long absence, is key.
What he really needs, though, is the Cristiano Ronaldo of late 2014, not the tetchy, misfiring version that has spluttered through 2015 so far.
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