Why it will be Manchester United, not Arsenal or City, celebrating Christmas top of the table

The National's Deputy Editor Thomas Woods makes a compelling case as to why Manchester United will be leading the Premier League by the end of 2015.

Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany, left, with United captain Wayne Rooney. Michael Regan / Getty Images

We are just under a third of the way through a barmy Premier League season which has already given us plenty of surprises. Who would have predicted Chelsea in the bottom five and Leicester City in the Uefa Champions League spots?

But a few things are going as expected and one of those is the presence of Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the top four.

It seems clear that this is going to be a three-way title race, although Tottenham Hotspur also look very strong.

It is a title race with a favourite (City) a strong challenger (Arsenal) and an outsider (United). Realistically, United would not have considered themselves title contenders at the start of the season but, despite ups and downs in form, they are only two points off the top. It is game on.

City have looked unstoppable at times, but they also have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. They have been hurt by injuries and a lack of depth up front.

Arsenal have also put in some superb performances, most notably the 3-0 demolition of United. But this is Arsenal. Can anyone who has watched this side over the past 10 years honestly say they are not expecting a calamity game at any moment? Arsenal look very strong, but they will surely slip up at some point. It is just hard to predict when. It is just as likely to be against Sunderland at home as it is Liverpool away.

So what of United? On paper, they have a squad capable of winning the title, but it does not always come together on the pitch. They are not particularly exciting to watch, either.

But their upcoming run of fixtures is such that they could easily be top come Christmas Day. Here is why:

[Predictions: Manchester City too good for Liverpool, Chelsea earn a much-needed win]

The current standings

Man City — 26 points

Arsenal — 26 points

Man United – 24 points

Matchday 13 predictions — November 21

Watford v Manchester United WIN

West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal WIN

Manchester City v Liverpool WIN

We are at a stage of the season where it is easier to read the form books, and we have a clearer idea of what to expect from each team. Watford and West Bromwich Albion should result in victories, while City have home advantage over Liverpool, fewer injuries to key players, and a better team.

Standings after Matchday 13

Man City — 29 points

Arsenal — 29 points

Man United 27 — points

['See it as an honour': Beckham's advice to Depay over Man United's No 7 shirt]

Matchday 14 — November 28

Leicester City v Manchester United WIN

Manchester City v Southampton WIN

Norwich v Arsenal WIN

Leicester City look a potential banana skin for United but Louis van Gaal’s side need only look back to last season and the 5-3 win that made people stand up and pay attention to Jamie Vardy. United were 3-1 up in that game and it could have been four when Radamel Falcao hit the bar. The current Leicester side is mostly the same, and they have the attack of a top-six side, but concede like a bottom-five outfit. United should be able to exploit that. Southampton will give City a good tussle and that could well be a single-goal victory. Norwich City are no match for Arsenal.

Standings after Matchday 14

Man City — 32 points

Arsenal — 32 points

Man United – 30 points

[Sturridge 'fit and ready to go' for Liverpool ahead of trip to Manchester City]

Matchday 15 — December 5

Arsenal v Sunderland WIN

Stoke City v Manchester City DRAW

Manchester United v West Ham United WIN

At some point City are going to put in a performance like recent the 0-0 draw at Aston Villa, where nothing goes right for them in front of goal. They could easily be stifled in the home game against Southampton, but it is more likely they will struggle at Stoke City, where no side comes away with easy points (except for City when they won 4-1 there last season!). Arsenal and United both should have simple home wins.

Standings after Matchday 15

Arsenal — 35 points

Man City — 33 points

Man United — 33 points

Matchday 16 — December 12

Bournemouth v Manchester United WIN

Manchester City v Swansea City WIN

Aston Villa v Arsenal DRAW

So here it is. Do I honestly think Villa can hold Arsenal? Probably four times out of five Arsenal would win this game, maybe nine times out of 10. But Arsenal are going to slip up at some point. There is no logical reasoning behind this statement, it is just what Arsenal do. If they cut out the lapses we have seen time and again in recent season then they must be title favourites, but we have to see it first. They will drop points at some stage before Christmas. Bournemouth, meanwhile, are heading towards the drop. United should grab three points there, as should City against a stumbling Swansea City side.

Standings after Matchday 16

Man City — 36 points

Arsenal — 36 points

Man United — 36 points

* City will have better goal difference

Matchday 17 — December 19

Manchester United v Norwich City WIN

Arsenal v Manchester City DRAW

Again, pencil in a United win here. If you take the five games they have before December 25 and look at each game in a vacuum, then you can predict five wins, with Leicester being the trickiest tie. Of course, injuries, form, bad luck can all come into play, but there is a strong chance United get maximum points from five games. Arsenal v City, meanwhile, is a toss up and City manager Manuel Pellegrini, like he did at Old Trafford, might well decide to play cautiously and look to take a point away from the Emirates Stadium, leaving United top of the tree at Christmas. Of course, United then have to travel to Stoke on December 26 and it could all go wrong from there, with Chelsea going to Old Trafford two days later.

Standings after Matchday 17

United 39 — points

City — 37 points

Arsenal — 37 points

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