From expiring contracts to a change in transfer fee dynamics: Uncertainty surrounds football's transfer industry amid coronavirus crisis

Nobody knows when next season might be, and the financial impact on clubs, and therefore the transfer market, is likely to be significant

Chelsea's Brazilian midfielder Willian waits to take a corner kick during the English Premier League football match between Chelsea and Everton at Stamford Bridge in London on March 8, 2020. RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications. / AFP / Adrian DENNIS / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE. No use with unauthorized audio, video, data, fixture lists, club/league logos or 'live' services. Online in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No video emulation. Social media in-match use limited to 120 images. An additional 40 images may be used in extra time. No use in betting publications, games or single club/league/player publications.Show less

With football having ground to a halt because of the coronavirus pandemic, the usual transfer rumour mill has fallen silent and nobody cares much where Neymar or Paul Pogba might be playing next season.

Nobody even knows when next season might be, and the financial impact on football clubs, and therefore the transfer market, is likely to be significant.

A study by KPMG this week estimated that cancelling the rest of this season would cost clubs across Europe's top five leagues as much as €4 billion (Dh15.8bn) in lost revenue. The knock-on effect could be enormous, trickling down to smaller clubs worldwide.

After all, look at a club like Monaco, who have raked in huge sums in recent years from selling players like Kylian Mbappe, who went to Paris Saint-Germain in 2018 for €180 million. They have then invested that money in new recruits, helping spread the wealth.

"Given the international situation, clubs are going to be less inclined to pay the kind of sums we look for," said Monaco's vice-president, Oleg Petrov.

Nevertheless, beyond worrying about who Mbappe, Neymar or Pogba could sign for, there is a more pressing concern.

What about players out of contract?

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Premier League players out of contract this summer

David Silva (Age 34), Manchester City. Season stats: 28 appearances, three goals, eight assists. The Spanish playmaker's memorable decade in Manchester is coming to an end this summer, with him seeking to add a third FA Cup and possibly a first Champions League title to his 11 major trophies with the club - could his ride into the sunset be delayed? AP Photo

Olivier Giroud (33), Chelsea. Season stats: 13 appearances, three goals. Sidelined by the early-season form of Tammy Abraham, the veteran France striker has deputised effectively as the young Englishman has struggled with injury in 2020. Scored in Premier League wins over Tottenham and Everton and the Uefa Super Cup against Liverpool. EPA

Willian (31), Chelsea. Season stats: 37 appearances, seven goals, six assists. The Brazil winger remains a key man in a largely inexperienced squad under Frank Lampard and his influence would be sorely missed should any end-of-season complications arise. Fellow winger Pedro may be less of a priority but should both be left in limbo, the need to get Christian Pulisic back to full fitness will become more acute. Is reported to be a target for London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal. PA

Jan Vertonghen (32), Tottenham. Season stats: 26 appearances, two goals, four clean sheets. Toby Alderweireld re-signed in January but his fellow Belgium defender is yet to follow. Scored a late winner against Wolves in the league and also netted in the FA Cup exit to Norwich, while he reached 300 games for the club on Boxing Day against Brighton. Rising defensive star Japhet Tanganga's own expiring deal features an optional extension which the club are sure to trigger. Reuters

Matty Longstaff (19), Newcastle United. Season stats: 11 appearances, three goals. The teenager has made quite an impact after joining older brother Sean in the Magpies' midfield, scoring in both meetings with Manchester United - including on his Premier League debut - as well as the FA Cup win over Rochdale. Manager Steve Bruce last month said of the local boy's contract: "It's a concern for us - I hope we can get that tied up." Reuters

Ryan Fraser (26), Bournemouth. Season stats: 32 appearances, one goal, four assists. The Scotland winger has not enjoyed his most productive season but the Cherries will still be desperate to get a new deal sorted. Their relegation struggle provides a further layer of complication.

Claudio Bravo (36), Manchester City. Season stats:16 appearances, four clean sheets. The veteran goalkeeper was one of Pep Guardiola's first signings at the Etidad in 2016 but whose consistently erratic form saw him lose his place to Willy Caballero , temporarily, and then Ederson, permanently. The reserve keeper is a League Cup regular who played a key role in City's recent final victory at Wembley against Aston Villa. Has been linked with a move to City's sister club in the MLS, New York City. PA

Adam Lallana (31), Liverpool. Season stats: 22 appearances, one goal, two assists. The midfielder has returned from an injury-hit spell to make several contributions, notably scoring the late equaliser against Manchester United in October which extended Liverpool's unbeaten league run. Leicester City have been linked with a summer move for the player who has spent six years on Merseyside. Getty

Shane Long (33), Southampton. Season stats: 24 appearances, three goals, four assists. The Irish attacker looked to be heading for the exit after moving to the Saints in 2014. The hard working, if never prolific, striker has been a regular up front alongside top scorer Danny Ings of late and is thought to be close to earning a new deal. Getty

Andy Carroll (31), Newcastle. Season stats: 14 appearances, four assists. An all too familiar story for the former most expensive British player. Continues to be a real handful for defenders and is still popular with supporters, but injuries have once again decimated his playing time. He is on a a heavily incentivised contract in which his basic wage is inflated by appearance fees, so he has come relatively cheap for the Magpies this season, but needs games to secure a new deal. Reuters

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Uefa's commitment to ending the European season by June 30 was, presumably, partly because it is common practice for contracts to run until that date.

Players like Manchester City's David Silva, Willian at Chelsea, or Paris Saint-Germain's Thiago Silva and Edinson Cavani, will be free to leave on July 1 even if the season has not been completed.

Fifa has set up a working group which could amend rules on transfers and make changes to "protect contracts for both players and clubs". However, clubs are already having to take drastic action to stave off financial disaster.

Some French sides, including Lyon, put their players on short-time working as a means of saving money. Swiss outfit Sion cancelled the contracts of nine players who refused to go on temporary unemployment.

In Scotland it is not unusual for player contracts to expire immediately after the scheduled last game of the season in May. In any case, struggling Hearts have asked players and staff to accept 50 per cent pay cuts.

Meanwhile, young players who are out of contract are a problem, points out David Venditelli, a French agent whose company Score represents Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette among others.

"Things are on hold for these players who are in a precarious position. They are the ones who are the most in danger," he said.

More free agents might find themselves on the market, but the biggest Champions League stars are unlikely to be impacted.

Changed dynamics?

Super-agents will keep playing the game, like Mino Raiola, whose clients include Pogba and Borussia Dortmund's Erling Braut Haaland.

Raiola told Spanish sports daily Marca this week that he hoped "to one day transfer a massive player to Real Madrid" and would "try to do it this summer".

Elsewhere, the dynamics of the market may change. "In some ways people will be eyeing up bargains," said one agent with in-depth knowledge of the British market. "A distressed club becomes a motivated seller, so there will be a fire sale of a distressed club selling its assets."

However, the reality is that nothing is happening right now.

"Nobody wants to get involved in that sort of thing now. Our primary job at the moment is to make sure all our staff are looked after," said Jonathan Barnett, whose clients include Gareth Bale.

"We all have the same problems, with uncertainty and things. We're not thinking about the summer or transfers because we don't know how far this thing is going to go."