Reaching the magical 40-point mark as soon as possible is the principal objective of any club promoted to the Premier League.
Since the division was reduced to 20 teams in 1995, only three of 63 sides — Sunderland in 1996/97 with 40, Bolton Wanderers in 1997/98 also with 40 and West Ham United in 2002/03 with 42 — have suffered relegation after amassing a greater points total.
When Burnley beat Leicester City 1-0 in late January, manager Sean Dyche could have been forgiven for thinking have his team were on the verge of booking their place in the top flight for the 2017/18 campaign.
That victory at Turf Moor took Burnley’s points total to 29, which meant four victories from their final 15 matches would almost certainly be sufficient to extend the club’s stay in the Premier League beyond a single season for the first time since the mid-1970s.
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Given that Dyche’s men were at that stage accumulating points at an average rate of 1.26 per game, last year’s Championship winners were on course to end the campaign closer to 50 points than 40 — a return which tends to be good enough for a top-half finish.
Since then, though, Burnley have struggled. A narrow 1-0 win over Stoke City in early April remains the only match they have won since that Leicester success, with their other 10 matches in that time resulting in four draws and six defeats.
Their points average since the start of February has fallen to just 0.64 per game, which means they are still four adrift of the target of 40 heading into Saturday’s showdown with Crystal Palace.
Burnley, or any of their relegation rivals, will probably not require that many points this time around, and the fate of Dyche’s side is still firmly in their own hands.
Just one win from their four remaining fixtures would see them over the line — and, depending on the results of Hull City and Swansea City below them, even that may not be necessary.
Nevertheless, Burnley’s run-in looks set to be a great deal more edgy than seemed probable a few weeks ago. One of the likely factors for that is psychological.
Burnley’s players and staff were presumably motivated to prove the doubters wrong having been widely tipped for relegation, but it is possible that they eased off once their target seemed secure, although the demoralising factor of their FA Cup fifth-round exit at the hands of non-league Lincoln City should also be considered.
A lack of squad depth is another reason for their decline. Bournemouth and Leicester are the only teams in the bottom half of the table who have used fewer players than Burnley’s 26 this season, which is hardly surprising given that the club are operating on one of the smallest budgets in the division.
As time has gone on and fatigue has kicked in, Dyche has struggled to keep results ticking over.
Above all else, though, Burnley have simply regressed to the mean, with their climb into the top half of the table earlier this year an example of overperformance.
Given the squad Dyche has at his disposal, it is not a surprise to see his side in 16th place. In fact, Burnley have exceeded expectations to be where they are after 34 games.
“When you look at the points on the board now and historically with our last two efforts [in the Premier League] we’re in good shape — against all the odds, no-one gave us any chance at all,” Dyche said after last weekend’s loss to Manchester United.
Staying up is all that matters for Burnley and, despite their recent downturn, they are still on course to do exactly that.
Two horse race for survival
Hull City need to improve their away form to boost their chances of avoiding relegation. Scott Heppell / Reuters
Whereas one more win would virtually guarantee Burnley’s Premier League status, Hull City and Swansea City may both need more than that in their final four fixtures.
Hull hold the advantage at present, with two points separating them from the drop zone ahead of Saturday’s trip to Southampton. Former Sporting Lisbon and Olympiakos manager Marco Silva has done a wonderful job since replacing Mike Phelan in the dugout in January, lifting a team who looked doomed to demotion out of the bottom three and leaving survival in their own hands going into the final stretch.
Hull’s excellent home form has been responsible for their upturn. Since Silva took charge, his side have won six and drawn one of their seven league matches in front of their own supporters. By contrast, seven away games have brought just one draw and six defeats.
Given that Tottenham Hotspur will provide the opposition at the KCOM on the final day of the season, Hull may need to beat Southampton or Crystal Palace on the road to make sure of survival.
Swansea’s schedule is perhaps slightly more favourable, notwithstanding Sunday’s meeting with Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Paul Clement steadied the ship early on in his tenure, as the Welsh club collected 15 points from the first 24 on offer under their new manager, but last weekend’s 2-0 victory over Stoke City was their first win in seven encounters.
Two victories will probably be the minimum required for Clement’s men, who face Everton at home, Sunderland away and West Bromwich Albion at the Liberty Stadium after their trip to Old Trafford.
Burnley may be out of form and Leicester, West Ham United, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace are not completely clear of danger yet, but it still looks set to be one of Hull or Swansea will be joining Middlesbrough and Sunderland in the Championship next season.
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