Iran has said that "under no circumstances" will its national team take part in this summer's World Cup.
The tournament is being jointly held in the US, Canada and Mexico, but Iran's participation has been the subject of speculation since the United States launched joint attacks on Tehran on February 28 alongside Israel.
On Tuesday, Fifa president Gianni Infantino said he had spoken to Donald Trump, with the US President reassuring him that Iran were "welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States."
Iran are scheduled to play Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt in Group G. Two of the games are set for Los Angeles, one in Seattle.
In response, Minister of Sport and Youth Ahmad Donyamali insisted that Iran will not be taking part in the 48-team tournament after the US killed its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
"Considering that this corrupt [US] regime has assassinated our leader, under no circumstances can we participate in the World Cup," Donyamali told state television.
While Iran have not formally withdrawn from the World Cup, the chances of the country taking its place in North America this summer seem to be dwindling by the day.
Hostilities show no signs of abating. Iran continues to launch daily attacks on its neighbours in the Middle East and surrounding countries. Trump says the war will end only when Iran offers unconditional surrender and select "great" new leaders.
If Iran were to withdraw from the tournament or be banned from taking part, Iraq and the UAE will be the most likely beneficiaries, although it is not a given.
What happens if Iran withdraws?
According to Fifa regulations, any participating member association that withdraws from the 2026 World Cup is subject to fines of up to CHF500,000 (Dh2.39 million), will have to reimburse team preparation money as well as any other tournament‑related payments.
Article 6.2 of the Fifa World Cup 2026 regulations states: “Any Participating Member Association that withdraws from the Fifa World Cup 26 no later than 30 days before the first match of the final competition shall be fined at least CHF250,000 by the Fifa Disciplinary Committee.
“Any Participating Member Association that withdraws from the Fifa World Cup 26 fewer than 30 days before the first match of the final competition shall be fined at least CHF500,000 by the FIFA Disciplinary Committee.
“Participating Member Associations that withdraw from the Fifa World Cup 26 at any time will be required to reimburse the team preparation money as well as any other tournament‑related contribution payments that they received from Fifa.”
It adds that the disciplinary committee may also impose additional measures including expelling the member association from future Fifa tournaments “and/or the replacement of the Participating Member Association with another member association”.
If a team withdraws or is expelled after the 2026 World Cup begins, Fifa regulations allow for forfeiture of matches (3–0 defeats) or, if early enough in the group stage, results being annulled.
However, once the tournament is underway, no new team is inserted. The competition continues with the adjusted standings.
Could the UAE or Iraq replace Iran?
As things stand, Iran are slated to play at the World Cup. Iran punched their ticket to the 2026 finals after topping Group A in Asian qualification with 26 points. The UAE finished third in that group to enter a play-off tournament held in Qatar, but could finish only second.
Mehdi Taj, president of Iran's football federation, had said at the outbreak of the war that he did not know if the national team will play at the World Cup following the US-Israeli strikes in his country.
“What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Taj told sports portal Varzesh3, an Iranian sports news website, as reported by the Associated Press.
If Iran choose to withdraw from the tournament or are expelled – Iran is among the 39 countries subject to US President Donald Trump’s expanded travel ban – Fifa’s regulations allow a replacement team to be nominated rather than leaving the slot vacant.
Typically, the allocation is chosen from the same federation, in this case the Asian Football Confederation, to keep the regional allocation slot balanced. It's important to note that this is not a codified rule, and is made at Fifa's discretion.
Iran are one of eight teams from Asia to have qualified outright for the 2026 finals. Iraq could potentially join them if they can successfully navigate an inter-confederation play-off on March 31 against either Suriname or Bolivia, although even that tie is in doubt given the travel disruption affecting the Middle East.
Iraq coach Graham Arnold has been stranded in Dubai following the attacks. He has called on Fifa to delay the play-off due to concerns over travel and delays in finalising paperwork, with government agencies shut.
If Iran withdraws and Fifa chooses Iraq as a replacement, it could, potentially, pave the way for the UAE to have another shot at reaching only a second global finals, though it is no formality.
How so?
The UAE finished third in their group in the third round of Asian qualifying for the World Cup, behind Iran and Uzbekistan.
As a result, the UAE entered a fourth round of qualifying featuring two groups of three played in two central locations.
The national team were paired with Qatar and Oman in Group A.
A nerve-shredding 2-1 comeback win over the Omanis in their first match meant that the UAE only had to avoid defeat to hosts Qatar to qualify for the World Cup finals for the first time since 1990.
A controversial 2-1 defeat sealed Qatar's place in North America and meant the UAE entered another play-off, where they lost to Iraq, runners-up from Group B, 3-2 on aggregate.
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UAE's World Cup hopes suffered a big blow as they were beaten 2-0 by Qatar at the Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha on October 14, 2025. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Dejected UAE defender Kouame Autonne after the match. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE coach Cosmin Olaroiu and Marcus Meloni after the match. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Tarek Salman of Qatar is sent off late in the game. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE's Sultan Adil after a missed opportunity. AFP -
Qatar's Boualem Khoukhi, left, celebrates after scoring their first goal. AP -
Dejected UAE players after the first Qatar goal. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Boualem Khoukhi celebrates after scoring for Qatar. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Boualem Khoukhi heads home to put Qatar 1-0 up. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE goalkeeper Khalid Essa during the first half. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE's Marcus Meloni and Mohammad Naceur Al Mannai of Qatar battle for the ball. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Qatar4's Mohammad Naceur Al Mannai after a chance goes begging. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE manager Cosmin Olaroiu during the game against Qatar. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
Qatar's Mohammad Al Mannai is shown a yellow card by referee Ilgiz Tantashev. Reuters -
Qatar manager Julian Lopetegui is helped to his feet after being hit in the head by the ball. AFP -
The UAE team starting XI before the against Qatar. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE players line up during the national anthems before the match. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE fans before the game against Qatar. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE fans before the game against Qatar. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE fans outside the National Jassim Bin Hamed Stadium in Doha. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE supporters at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha. AFP -
UAE fans in the National Jassim Bin Hamed Stadium in Doha. Chris Whiteoak / The National -
UAE fan outside the National Jassim Bin Hamed Stadium in Doha. Chris Whiteoak / The National
Of the Asian teams that did not qualify outright for the World Cup, the UAE are the highest-ranked team (58).
But as per its own regulations, Fifa can replace any team that withdraws, but the rule book does not specify an automatic replacement based solely on runners-up status or ranking, or even confederation.
If Iran withdraws and Iraq replaces them at the World Cup, the UAE could be asked to step in for Iraq in the inter-confederation play-off.
Other options Fifa may consider are promoting Iraq in Iran's place, and the winner of Bolivia v Suriname qualifying for the World Cup finals.
Has a team withdrawn from a World Cup before?
Yes. The most chaotic tournament, in terms of withdrawals, was at the 1950 finals held in Brazil.
Turkey, Scotland and India qualified for the tournament, mostly because several countries in Asia, Europe and South America refused to even take part in qualifying. Turkey, Scotland and India all withdrew before the start of that World Cup, citing the cost of travel and player registration issues.
Portugal, who had lost to Spain in qualifying, were invited to replace Turkey, but turned down the chance, again citing the cost of travel. Portugal were not automatically entitled to the spot; Fifa simply selected the most logical European replacement.
France also withdrew after qualification, citing travel costs and scheduling issues. Fifa invited Portugal again, but they declined.
Ultimately, no replacement was inserted for either Turkey, Scotland or India, and the tournament proceeded with fewer teams (13 instead of 16).
At the 1938 World Cup, Austria qualified but withdrew after its annexation by Nazi Germany. That time, Fifa did not invite a replacement. Sweden, Austria's opponents, were given a bye into the next round.
