Mexico City is up next in the F1 season and Kimi Antonelli is on the brink of being crowned the youngest world champion in the sport’s history.
His commanding victory in Austin increased his huge advantage over George Russell to 123 points at the top of the standings. If the 20-year-old Italian finishes ninth or higher in Mexico City, then the celebrations can begin.
At more than 2,200 metres above sea level, the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez circuit provides quite the technical challenge. The thin air reduces aerodynamic grip, complicates cooling and makes traction particularly difficult through the slower sections.
Our power rankings reflect who will arrive in Mexico in the best shape. We have taken into account recent form, raw speed, how much each driver extracts from their car, momentum and how well their strengths suit the circuit. Here are our top 10 rankings and predictions for the race:
10. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Form: Singapore P11, Austin P10. Championship: P10
Last weekend, Gasly got his Alpine into the points despite losing considerable downforce after colliding with Ollie Bearman. He felt P9 might have been achievable had he not suffered any damage and lost time in the slow pit stop. Alpine remain short of pace but the Frenchman is always on hand to capitalise on any opportunities afforded to him.
9. George Russell (Mercedes)
Form: Singapore P9. Austin P8. Championship: P2
Russell’s recent results disguise some rotten luck. A likely podium disappeared with an engine failure in Malaysia which then triggered a grid penalty in Singapore. Austin was harder to explain. He described his pace as “rubbish” while Mercedes acknowledged that its latest update appears to have made the car’s set-up window harder to hit. Russell could be at risk of dropping to third in the table.
8. Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls)
Form: Singapore P7, Austin P9. Championship: P9
Three consecutive points finishes have strengthened Lawson’s hopes of securing a seat next season. But he admitted “I have no idea, man,” when asked about his hopes for the future. He managed a P9 finish despite an irritating software issue that repeatedly trigged warnings in his ear while Racing Bulls’ latest upgrade appears to have strengthened the car’s pace. He deserves a lot of praise for consistently converting midfield speed into points and will look to do so again in Mexico.
7. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Form: Singapore P5, Austin P7. Championship: P7
Piastri followed sixth in Malaysia and P5 in Singapore with seventh in Austin, admitting McLaren simply lack the pace to challenge. Great on the hard tyres in Austin, he absorbed sustained pressure from Russell and kept him behind for around 30 laps. “When you find the window on these cars, there is some pace, but finding that window is very tricky,” Piastri noted. Finding that window in Mexico City will be challenging.
6. Lando Norris (McLaren)
Form: Singapore P4, Austin P5. Championship: P6
He recovered from a poor qualifying position to briefly run second in Austin and felt fifth was ultimately the maximum available to him. Norris believes that the car can’t compete with its challengers. “It was clear we didn’t have the pace of the others, but we gave it a good try," he said. Mexico should at least bring back some good memories as he achieved a dominant victory there last year.
5. Isack Hadjar (Red Bull)
Form: Singapore P10, Austin P6. Championship: P8
Hadjar cut a frustrated figure in Austin. He has been quicker than the results suggest. Power unit and gearbox problems ruined much of his weekend in Singapore and yet he still recovered from the pit lane to finish P10. In Austin, he qualified third and had a good run on the soft tyres. But a problem with his clutch and technical issues marred his race even though he managed to finish in P6. The pace is there, he just needs a weekend free of issues to demonstrate that.
4. Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Form: Singapore P6, Austin P4. Championship: P3
He finished third in Malaysia, struggled in Singapore, but produced a strong performance in Austin. Hamilton was rapidly closing in on Max Verstappen ahead of him during the final stint and believed the late Virtual Safety Car denied Ferrari a realistic shot at putting both drivers on the podium. It didn’t help that he started on a used tyre. The SF-26 still has weaknesses, particularly when it comes to straight-line performance, but its pace is allowing Ferrari to challenge at the top of the grid.
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Form: Singapore P2, Austin P2. Championship: P5
Leclerc has improved greatly in the last few weeks, and he has now registered two successive second places. Ferrari’s latest upgrade has delivered more than a temporary performance gain and Leclerc says the development direction suits him and has helped in restoring his confidence in the car. Don’t be surprised if he manages another podium finish in Mexico.
2. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Form: Singapore P1, Austin P3. Championship: P4
Verstappen is out of contention for the drivers’ championship but his resurgence in recent weeks made us all believe in his chances. He arrived in Austin after claiming consecutive victories in Malaysia and Singapore and even qualified second in Texas. But his race was compromised by a poor launch, debris damage, balance problems and issues with the power unit. Red Bull acknowledge that they failed in exploiting the RB22’s potential. But in Mexico, Verstappen returns to a circuit where he has won five times – more than any other driver on the grid.
1. Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Form: Singapore P3, Austin P1. Championship: P1
Antonelli is now on the verge of winning the championship. He finished second behind Verstappen in Malaysia, fought through braking problems to take third in Singapore and then produced arguably his most complete weekend of the season in Austin. Clinching pole position, he managed a perfect and swift launch at lights out on medium tyres to give himself an advantage on the first lap. The one-stop strategy made the difference and the Italian won by 13 seconds. He now only needs two points in Mexico to make history.
Mexico City podium predictions
1. Kimi Antonelli
The bravest driver on the grid, both his drive and strategy secured the trophy in Austin. There’s no pressure to win in Mexico but the Italian is determined to enjoy himself and is bound to continue exceeding expectations.
2. Max Verstappen
Five victories in Mexico are difficult to overlook and underline how well Verstappen suits this circuit. Red Bull continue to be a major threat despite a more difficult weekend in Austin.
3. Charles Leclerc
Back-to-back second place finishes have demonstrated the resurgence of the driver in these final stages of the season. Ferrari’s recent gains give him every chance of making it three podiums in a row.
