Japanese F1 Grand Prix: A storm is coming - and it’s not just the rain in Suzuka

After a brief hiatus, Formula One returns to action, and with it, the high-octane drama that has already defined the opening rounds of the 2025 season. Japan hosts the third race of the calendar at Suzuka – one of the sport’s most iconic venues and a circuit widely regarded as the ultimate test of a driver’s skill and bravery. Rain is forecast for race day, only amplifying the challenge and setting the stage for an exciting weekend. Just 24 hours after the Chinese Grand Prix, Red Bull bosses reportedly convened in Dubai and opted to make a swift and decisive change. Liam Lawson was dropped from the main Red Bull team and sent back to Racing Bulls, with Yuki Tsunoda promoted in his place. It’s been a torrid few weeks for Lawson, who famously once said “I'm not here to make friends, I'm here to win, and that's what I'm focused on doing.” His mental resilience is one of the reasons Red Bull promoted him over Tsunoda as Max Verstappen’s teammate. Despite his eagerness, Lawson failed to live up to expectations with many quickly pointing out the curse of Red Bull’s second seat. It seems hardly anyone has been capable of performing to expectations in a car Red Bull has admitted has been designed to suit the preferences of the four-time world champion Verstappen . Red Bull’s decision to swap drivers after only two races arguably says more about them than about the skills of their rookie. Despite knowing the potential challenges Lawson would face, why did they not better prepare for his integration within the team? The driver was adamant that he just needed a little more time to get acquainted with the car. Even Verstappen showed his discontent at the decision to swap drivers so quickly by liking a comment written by former F1 driver Giedo van der Garde on social media describing Red Bull's decision to demote Lawson as "a panic move" and "close to bullying". Speaking to Sky Sports, team principal Christian Horner tried to offer justification, claiming that Lawson was “clearly struggling” and that returning him to Racing Bulls was an act of protection rather than punishment. “It was something that was very clear to the engineering side within the team, just how much Liam was struggling with it all, and you could see that weight upon his shoulders,” Horner said. Sending him back to Racing Bulls, a team that provides a more supportive environment with a car that’s easier to drive, should allow the New Zealander to develop further and regain his confidence. Welcomed back by his former team, Lawson admitted to being surprised with the decision but grateful that he still has a seat in F1. He will now partner with Isack Hadjar, and with Suzuka being a circuit he knows well, Lawson has an immediate opportunity to respond on the track. For many, this move was overdue. Yuki Tsunoda, long considered the more experienced and consistent of the two Racing Bull drivers last year, will now get his shot at the Red Bull seat – and at his home Grand Prix, no less. The Japanese has faced questions over his fitness and composure in the past, but has steadily developed into a reliable performer and has grown in maturity. Now in his fourth season in F1, he’s ready for a new challenge — one that comes with enormous expectation. But is he the right driver to put an end to this ‘curse’ of Red Bull’s second driver? By Red Bull's own admission, the RB21 is a difficult car to drive and needs a lot of work. "We've got work to do with the car," Horner said. "We need to improve the car. We need to draw on the experience that Yuki has.” Whether brutal or logical, Red Bull's decision to swap drivers two races in does raise the question over the team's long-term strategy. What if Tsunoda also struggles? How much time will he be given? With a proven driver like Carlos Sainz still available and without a seat, some might argue that Red Bull have missed the opportunity to bring in a stabilising force capable of both development and results. Sainz’s role in helping Alex Albon secure points in Australia was yet another example of his leadership qualities and strategic value. The hope is that Tsunoda will excel and demonstrate his capabilities, and the driver was clearly not feeling the pressure of performing at his home race, joking with the media, “Once I entered the hospitality, I was only thinking about breakfast!” While his consistent performances merited a promotion, behind the humour lies a high-stakes weekend for Tsunoda. Racing in front of his home crowd, all eyes will be on the Japanese driver to see whether Red Bull’s gamble will pay off. Off the back of a one-two finish in China – the team’s 50th in F1 – McLaren head to Suzuka with a car and driver pairing in perfect harmony. Oscar Piastri, winner last time out, and Lando Norris, victor in Australia, have delivered the strongest opening salvo of any team this year. “Do I agree we have the best car? Yes, and it's nice to say that,” Norris said with quiet confidence. Even at this early stage of the season, it's clear that the MCL-39 is the car to beat. Another strong weekend in Japan could see McLaren solidify their early grip on both championships. Norris has never won at Suzuka, but he is the early favourite to clinch the drivers' championship this season. However, Piastri is eager to challenge and more than capable of taking his teammate on. Another one-two finish is not just possible – it’s expected. Ferrari enter the Japanese Grand Prix needing a performance – and fast. Following the double disqualification in China, the Italian team are already trailing McLaren by 61 points in the constructors’ standings. For a team that believed it had taken a step forward this season, it’s a concerning position. This year was supposed to be different. Lewis Hamilton’s arrival signalled the team’s ambition to return to winning ways and Ferrari seemed confident of the SF-25’s capabilities. Mistakes have attracted scrutiny, but the team remain steadfast in their belief that they boast a car capable of challenging for championships and that it’s simply a matter of ironing out the small details. Hamilton dismissed any suggestion of disillusionment . “Complete rubbish,” he said when asked if he was losing faith in Ferrari’s progress. Charles Leclerc, meanwhile, was more direct. “It’s not about extracting the performance – it’s just that there isn’t enough of it for now. But step by step, I’m confident we can close that gap, starting from this weekend.” Ferrari have made subtle adjustments to the car but have opted not to introduce their upgraded floor at Suzuka. Whether that conservative approach pays off remains to be seen.